Saturday, 6 July 2024

SAME CIRCUS DIFFERENT CLOWN

6 July 2024

A case for PR.

the disconnect between politicians and the public due to the first-past-the-post election system

Why Labour’s strength in the Commons is heavily exaggerated.

https://is.gd/Mg8zvs

1. Labour's Victory and the Electoral System

- Labour's win is exaggerated due to the electoral system.
- Voters rejected the Conservatives but didn't fully embrace Labour.

2. Conservative Party's Decline

- Conservative support dropped to 24%, the lowest ever.
- The party now has only 121 MPs, a historic low.
- Support fell most in their defended seats.
- Reform UK's 15% vote share weakened Conservative strongholds.

3. Impact of Reform UK

- Reform UK gained 15% of the vote, winning five seats.
- The rise in Reform support, especially in Conservative-held seats, significantly hurt the Tories.
- Nigel Farage's campaign efforts eroded Conservative support further.

4. Tactical Voting

- Voters chose Labour or Liberal Democrats strategically to defeat Conservatives.
- Labour support rose by six points in Conservative-contested seats.
- Liberal Democrats saw a nine-point rise where they were the main challengers.

5. Labour's Vote Share

- Labour won 35% of the vote, less than previous leaders Corbyn and Blair.
- This is the lowest vote share for a majority government in history.

6. Voter Turnout

- Turnout dropped by eight points to 60%, the second-lowest since 1885.
- Sharpest drop in seats where Labour polled well in 2019.

7. Disproportional Outcome

- The election result highlights the discrepancy between vote share and seats won.
- Labour's exaggerated strength in Commons may spur debate on electoral reform.

8. Challenges for Labour

- Labour's stance on Gaza and its tenure in Wales cost support, especially in Muslim-majority areas.
- To maintain power, Starmer needs to prove his party's capability to handle their new responsibilities.

9. Comparison of Parties

- Reform had a 14% vote share but only won five seats.
- Liberal Democrats, with a 12% vote share, secured 71 seats.
- This discrepancy underscores the dis proportionality of the electoral system.

10. First Hundred Days

- Initial outrage at Parliament not representing the people. 
- Large proportion of people whose votes were wasted due to FTPT.
- Then realisation that the same problems that the Tories had failed to fix, still confront the new Labour government, with the same financial and pluralist constraints
- Impression of a bankrupt country, in administration.

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Keep it clean, keep it lean