Tuesday, 11 June 2024

MEASURING DEBT BY NATION STATE

12 June2024

**1. Categories of National Debt**

National debt can be categorised as follows:

- **Public Debt**: Debt owed by the government, including central and local governments.
- **Private Debt**: Debt owed by individuals and private sector companies.
- **External Debt**: Debt owed to foreign creditors.
- **Domestic Debt**: Debt owed to domestic creditors.
- **Debt by Currency Denomination**: Debt categorized by the currency in which it is issued, such as USD, EUR, etc.

**Metrics for Measuring Debt:**

- **Debt as a Percentage of GDP**: Indicates the size of a country's debt relative to its economic output.
- **Debt Per Capita**: Total national debt divided by the population, showing the average debt burden per individual.
- **Debt by Currency Denomination**: Shows the proportion of debt held in different currencies, which affects exchange rate risks.

**2. Central Repository for Global Debt Data**

There is no single central repository covering all 180 nation states comprehensively. However, several sources provide extensive data on national debts:

- **World Bank**: Offers comprehensive global debt data.
- **International Monetary Fund (IMF)**: Provides various datasets on national debts.
- **OECD**: Provides economic statistics, including public debt.
- **Trading Economics**: Offers country-specific debt statistics.

**3. Thailand's Debt Overview**

**Thailand's National Debt Statistics:**

- **Public Debt**: Thailand's national debt was 56% of GDP as of March 2024, with total government debt reaching approximately USD 277.8 billion [[❞]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/national-government-debt) [[❞]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp).
- **Private Debt**: Not specified in the latest data reviewed.
- **External Debt**: Includes debts owed to foreign creditors; specific data not mentioned.
- **Debt by Currency Denomination**: About 5% of Thailand's government debt is denominated in US dollars [[❞]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/august/dollar-exposure-public-debt-asia-latin-america).
- **Debt Per Capita**: Approximately USD 2,630 per citizen [[❞]](https://commodity.com/data/thailand/debt-clock/).

For more detailed data and updates, the World Bank, IMF, and CEIC Data are good sources to refer to for comprehensive statistics and trends on national debt.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF NATIONAL DEBT

**1. Key Measures for Assessing National Debt**

Several measures are used to assess the significance of national debt:

- **Debt-to-GDP Ratio**: This is the most common measure, indicating the size of a country's debt relative to its economic output. A lower ratio suggests a country can manage its debt more easily.

- **Debt Per Capita**: This measure divides the total national debt by the population, indicating the average debt burden per individual.

- **Interest Payments as a Percentage of Government Revenue**: This shows the proportion of government revenue used to service debt, indicating how burdensome the debt is on fiscal resources.

- **Debt Maturity Structure**: The length of time before debt needs to be repaid. Short-term debt might indicate higher rollover risk, while long-term debt may

KEY TARGETS

**1. Key Measures for Assessing National Debt**

Several measures are commonly used to assess the significance and sustainability of national debt:

- **Debt-to-GDP Ratio**: This is the most common measure, indicating the size of a country's debt relative to its economic output. A lower ratio suggests a country can manage its debt more easily. For example, a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 60% is often considered sustainable for developed economies.

- **Debt Per Capita**: This measure divides the total national debt by the population, showing the average debt burden per individual.

- **Interest Payments as a Percentage of Government Revenue**: This indicates how much of the government’s income is used to service debt, reflecting the burden of debt on fiscal resources.

- **Debt Maturity Structure**: This refers to the timeline for debt repayment. A higher proportion of short-term debt may increase rollover risks, while long-term debt provides more stability.

- **Currency Composition of Debt**: This shows the proportion of debt denominated in foreign currencies, which can expose a country to exchange rate risks.

**2. Targets and Benchmarks**

Different countries and economic organizations set various targets to ensure debt sustainability. Here are some common benchmarks:

- **Maastricht Criteria**: For Eurozone countries, the Maastricht Treaty sets a limit of 60% of GDP for public debt and 3% of GDP for the budget deficit.

- **IMF and World Bank**: These institutions often recommend that emerging markets keep their debt-to-GDP ratio below 60-70%, while developed economies can manage higher ratios due to their ability to raise revenue and borrow at lower costs.

- **National Fiscal Rules**: Many countries have their own fiscal rules. For instance, the UK’s fiscal framework targets reducing public sector net debt as a percentage of GDP in the medium term.

**3. Importance of Context**

- **Economic Structure**: Countries with stable, diversified economies can manage higher debt levels.
- **Fiscal Policy**: Effective fiscal management, including sustainable budgeting and spending, impacts debt sustainability.
- **External Factors**: Global economic conditions, interest rates, and investor confidence also play a crucial role.

**Thailand's Debt Targets and Measures**

- **Debt-to-GDP Ratio**: Thailand aims to keep its public debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%, in line with many emerging market benchmarks. As of March 2024, the ratio was approximately 56% [[❞]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/national-government-debt) [[❞]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp).

- **Interest Payments**: Monitoring the proportion of revenue used for interest payments is crucial to ensure fiscal space for other expenditures.

In conclusion, while the Debt-to-GDP ratio is a critical measure, other factors such as debt maturity, interest payments, and the economic context are also important. Setting and adhering to prudent debt targets helps maintain fiscal health and economic stability.


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