The President of France Emmanuel Macron often talks of sending combat troops into Ukraine but can it really be true that he has done it this time and if he has, where is the risk assessment and realistically speaking, isn't it too late to save a Ukraine already on its last legs?
"France has sent its first troops officially to Ukraine. They have been deployed in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in Slavyansk. The French soldiers are drawn from France's 3rd Infantry Regiment, which is one of the main elements of France's Foreign Legion (Légion étrangère)."
Stephen Bryen, a former US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense. reports in an article for the Asia Times.
Macron has said many times that he would be "Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa".
Asked about the possibility of a military intervention to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, he said,
“If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request, which is not the case today, we would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question".
This comes at a time when it seems that his generals are switching the emphasis in defense from counter-insurgency (some might say "colonial"), now they've had to leave West Africa, to matching an enemy on the battlefield. That requires a very great re-adjustment and perhaps now is not the best moment to provoke a landwar with Russia.
Scott Ritter explains what could happen. Ritter, former UN weapons inspector in Iraq, describes the escalation ladder, where as each rung is climbed the bets and risks mount fatally and irreversibly.
The placement of Foreign Legion soldiers in Slavyansk is a significant shift in military strategy and public perception. Originally, French officials, including President Macron, precised that any deployment of French troops would aim to backfill positions out of the conflict zone in western Ukraine. This would free up Ukrainian forces to redirect their efforts towards more intense conflict zones in the east.
Deploying troops directly to Slavyansk, a hot front-line location, contradicts earlier French assurances and provocative because it brings French forces - who could possibly be viewed as an extension of NATO - into direct confrontation with Russian troops, escalating France's involvement from a supportive to a combative role.
Will Russia view this as NATO direct involvement? Will the Russians retaliate against French troops beyond Ukraine? In France? In Poland, through which they must pass to get access to Ukraine?
This would be justified because France has chosen to be a combatant, but forcing an Article 5 vote on NATO members - perhaps Macron's underlying strategy for getting America directly involved - would be difficult if not impossible, because America and the European members of NATO have all made it perfectly clear to Macron that they do not support direct involvement of combat troops in Ukraine.
It's not obvious how this seeming unprovoked deployment could play out to Macron's or France's advantage. Presumably Macron thinks this will restore his esteem and French global prestige, but on the other hand, there are significant perhaps under appreciated risks.
1. France and possibly NATO are now in the Russian firing line. Macron can only have done this hoping to drag America directly into a confrontation with Russia, but America is implacably against boots on the ground in Ukraine and has said this many times. All Macron is succeeding in doing is risking further escalation into a Europe-wide war.
2. France treasury is at risk. France was expelled from West Africa earlier this year. France's former African colonies hold CFA Francs in their treasuries. France guarantees the CFA Franc’s convertibility into Euros through the French Treasury. What if these countries, now favourably disposed to Russia, decide to exchange their treasuries for Euros or cash out all together into gold?
3. America must have been angered by France's failure to protect its African assets and the significant though little reported loss of face and influence.The US has followed France out of west Africa, surrendering a 100 million dollar military base in Niger to Russian troops. Defeat and retreat from Ukraine will be another fiasco and humiliation, coming so soon on the heals of Afghanistan.
4. Uranium for the French power industry is now largely under Russian control. France depends for two thirds of its uranium on west African mines. Once again Europe finds itself at the mercy of the Russians for its energy supplies: why provoke, what is to be gained?
5. The timing of this press article is really most unfortunate. It comes at just the moment when Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the President of the People's Republic of China, and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, sweeps into Europe to begin his tour in France, only to find that his host has just sent in troops to attack his best friend Putin.
The risks to France surely greatly outweigh the doubtful benefits. France risks suffering further significant loss of prestige, starting a Europe-wide war and taking a serious hit to its already vulnerable economy.
The Russian response is hard to predict but will surely be full of surprises and setbacks for France and NATO.
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