UK HOUSE PRICES

14 March 2024

https://youtu.be/7IhxhF1o5_A?si=dCiuW_mthnnFuSXt

In the video from the highly reputed Youtube channel Pensioncraft, Ramin delves into the dynamics of the UK housing market, providing a comprehensive analysis that strips away the inflationary sheen to reveal the real underlying trends in house prices over the decades. 

Notably, the video rates change in house prices alongside change in UK wages and inflation to show how the latter drive the former.

Ramin is bang on with his stunning analysis that, "as always" (his catchphrase), challenges popular perceptions.

Summary of Key Points

1. Long-Term House Price Trends

The video begins with historical data from Nationwide (1973-2018), emphasising the close relationship between UK wages and house prices. 

Ramin's baseline is a quite nuanced discussion on the real value of houses, ie after adjusting for inflation, highlighting that the growth in house prices has only modestly outpaced wages and inflation.

2. The Real Value of House Prices 

So, a critical revelation is the real value of house prices when adjusted for inflation.

Ramin's analysis suggests that the real growth rate of house prices across the UK averages at 1.1% above inflation, with regional variations. 

London, for instance, sees a higher real growth rate at 2%, compared to Scotland 0.5% and the North 0.6%. This debunks the myth of universally high returns on simple  property investments - you need to add value or buy cheap in order to make a decent return.

3. Current Market Dynamics

The latest trends: a recent peak in average house prices at around £258,000, followed by a decrease attributed to rising interest rates. Taking a look at current market conditions within a longer history of house price fluctuations, particularly note significant downturns in the 1990s and during the global financial crisis.

4. Adjusting for Inflation

So, the stark reality is that, after adjusting for inflation, house prices have not grown as significantly as raw figures suggest. In fact, in real terms, house prices today are comparable to those in 2004, growing at 1.1% annually net of inflation, while you could expect around 5% net on the stock exchange if you follow unemotionally a plan

(Ramin elsewhere recommends investing in just one asset: an MSCI developed market index tracker ... it's actually quite a complex calculation comparing a house purchase where you are borrowing a huge wedge of money on which you have to pay interest and investing it in property where you also live, with investing on the stock market where you're setting aside a small monthly sum of your own cash each month).

5. Regional Variations and Future Projections

His analysis extends to regional disparities in house price growth and projections for the future, considering factors like the evolution of interest rates, wage growth, and what he calls "the price-to-earnings ratio" - ie the price of a property divided by the average annual wage - it's a whopping 9.9 in London, but much lower in the regions. 

Ramin makes the case that without significant wage increases or changes in the expensiveness of houses relative to earnings, substantial house price growth is unlikely.

6. Reflection on Housing Affordability 

What about housing affordability, particularly for younger generations striving to enter the market? 

Likely to remain difficult, a substantial correction in the housing market is unlikely due to persistently high price-to-earnings ratios (9.9 in London, wow!) and also the ever-present problem of limited supply, not to mention (he doesn't, but we know...) a seemingly endlessly rising population.

For those who get this far, listen to his caution about expecting more money from the sale of your house in today's climate.