EUROPE IS IN A DOOM LOOP

1 February 2024

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/31/europe-is-finished-condemned-third-rate-elites/

SUMMARY

Allister Heath mourns the demise of Europe, citing economic failure, geopolitical irrelevance, migration crises, and democratic deficits. He suggests Europe's decline is irreversible due to ingrained issues like welfarism, decadence, and self-hatred.

"... the doom-loop is unstoppable."

He argues that young Europeans would fare better in the U.S., emphasising higher living standards, lower taxes, and a more vibrant spirit. Additionally, he criticises Europe's political, economic, and demographic challenges, asserting that even Brexit failed to diagnose and prompt necessary changes.

The piece concludes by cautioning against realigning with Europe, emphasising the continent's accelerating decline and asking,

"How can further increasing our ties with a zero-growth continent or a shrinking German economy do anything for Britain? It can't. And how will the British Left respond to the rise of the far Right in Europe?"

CRIT

1. The EU was working fine when it was a partnership between equals, France and Germany. After the "trente glorieuses", the 30 boom years from World War II to the oil price hike in 1973, Germany moved ahead.

2. The Cold War was a time when the West could probably have bumped off Russia. Putin came to power in 1999 with objective to end the chaos and introduce order.

3. Helmut Kohl was Chancellor during the Cold War to 1998 and saw through German reunification in 1990. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, he spotted the opportunity to take on board all those former Soviet countries and use them as Germany's supply chain. Meaning what had been the West-East German-French Alliance then switched to a North-South - this further damaged France, the alliance and the EU. The euro was another great win for Germany, getting stronger and stronger, worrisome for America.

4. Amongst many achievements, the next Chancellor, Gerhard Schroder, came up with the brilliant plan of using Russia for energy, America for defence and China for commerce. He also notably opposed the 2003 American Intervention in Iraq.

5. From de Gaulle to Mitterand, France had an independent defense policy and this meant it had its own armaments industry and could very easily have been the birthplace of European military independence from America, but instead has only been able to export outside Europe, in competition with other arms suppliers. By buying American, Germany put a stop to a nascent EU army

6. You can imagine the net result of all this on American fears for its hegemony. Since the last world war, the Democrats have always wanted to destroy Russia and with Ukraine And the promise of NATO Membership dating back to 2008, they created the perfect opportunity. Plus the pipeline and the consequences for American LNG and energy prices for Germany. And the Inflation Reduction Act which is sucking the talent and industry out of Europe, especially Germany.

7. Allister Heath blames the doom loop on mediocre European politicians, but I would put the blame very squarely on American foreign policy.

8. America wanting to kill Russia, or at least the Democrats wanting to kill Russia (the Republicans seem more in favour of making friends and avoiding war - this was completely and deliberately misunderstood in Trump's approaches to Russia), before tackling China; and also wanting to prevent a Germany-Russia tie-up ; and weaken Europe (the EU) generally, which means weakening Germany.

9. Cameron, the new pom-pom girl replacing Boris, must delight America, but this doesn't stop America from wounding the UK by refusing a trade deal. Further proof of American strategy to destroy Russia; weaken Europe, Germany in particular; and prevent a German Russia tie up.

ARTICLE

(For those like me without a subscription.)

In summary, Allister Heath says it's time to mourn the demise of old Europe. The rot is too far gone, the decline too pronounced, the welfarism, decadence, pacifism and self-hatred too ingrained, the doom-loop unstoppable. Once the world's richest, most advanced continent, Europe is finished, its humiliating fall all too obvious to the rest of the world, if not to deluded Europeans.

Its self-inflicted pathologies - catastrophic economic failure, near-total geopolitical irrelevance, a migration and integration crisis, and a gaping democratic deficit - have now metastasised. They have become too complex, too daunting for Europe's third-rate elites even to consider tackling, and especially for the selfish, demagogic politicians who have presided with such insouciance over its social disintegration, "degrowth", Potemkin militaries and appalling demographics. Germany, France,
the Netherlands and elsewhere are on the brink of social explosion, with farmers the latest to have become radicalised.

Any young, ambitious European would be better off moving to America, especially anti-woke Florida or Texas. They will pay less tax.They will live better, happier, freer lives.They will be less likely to face total war. Their living standards will be drastically higher.

In the 248-year intra-Western contest between the US and Europe, there has been only one winner. America is also sick, as witnessed by its own social decay, the rise of the woke ideology and the preposterous -rematch of the geriatrics between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Yet unlike in Paris, Berlin, Rome or Brussels, enough remains of its capitalist spirit, its dynamism, its entrepreneurialism, its love of science, meritocracy and technology, to see it through its current troubles.

Europe's greatest legacies to the world -capitalism, individual liberty, the rule of law
and the "Western, Educated, Industrialised,
Rich, and Democratic" (or "weird") values so
brilliantly described by Joseph Henrich of
Harvard University - will live on in the US.
But there is no way back for a European
continent that has embraced nihilism, post
Christian paganism, illiberalism and the
politics of envy, that believes that saving the
planet requires shutting down successful
industries and impoverishing its people, that
cannot face down Islamist extremism and
anti-Semitism, and that won't reform its
welfare state.

Even Brexit, the ultimate warning signal, failed to change anything. Europe's ruling class dismissed the UK's departure as an aberration, an own goal by self-harming British eccentrics, and doubled-down on its failed policies. It refused to listen to voters; no wonder their rage is becoming ever more combustible, inchoate and unfocused.

The EU population will peak at 453.3 million in two years' time, then slump to 419.5 million by 2100, despite massive immigration,Eurostat predicts. The population will agedrastically, driven by a collapse in the birthrate. Welfare states will implode, with taxesrocketing on the young to pay for healthcareand pensions for the old. The Euro-elites' onlyanswer, even more migration, will empowerpotentially dangerous extremists. In France,Germany, Belgium and elsewhere, the failureto integrate many recent migrants, and theruling class's answer - to lie that all is well - ispaving the way for a cataclysm. The rise ofGermany's AfD should worry us all. TheEuropean elections will see gains forpopulists.

The gulf in living standards between America and Europe keeps on widening. In the final quarter of 2023, US GDP grew by an annualised 3.3 per cent; the Eurozone grew by zero per cent and the German economy shrank again. Putin's invasion of Ukraine didn't help, but Europe shouldn't have become so dependent on Russian gas.

The continent's high-tax, high regulation
The continent's high-tax, high regulation
model has caused decades of under-performance, and now Emmanuel Macron, the EU and the Dutch and German governments are deliberately shutting down swathes of their agriculture to meet net-zero targets. The Germans are destroying their car industry, and Europe will import Chinese electric vehicles instead. Decades of "industrial strategy" and subsidies have failed to create a world-class European tech industry. The continent's economic suicide is already triggering an exodus of the best and brightest.

Europe's geopolitical irrelevance is equally striking. Its defence is being shouldered by long-suffering US taxpayers. The French are nowhere to be seen in the fight against the Houthis; its army is a shadow of its former self, and wouldn't last long in a real war. The Poles and a few others are trying their best, but the German military is a joke, and all the great promises to rebuild European armies made in 2022 have meant nothing. The
continent is almost completely demilitarised, lacks personnel and hardware, doesn't have the capacity to produce more of the latter, has zero long-term answers to contain Putin and has done nothing to prepare for the possibility of a second Trump victory. It's a disgrace.

It beggars belief that so many of the middle class British Remainers and Rejoiners, who will help propel Labour to victory this year, are still so unfathomably ignorant about the true state of Europe's economy and society. Blinded by anti-Tory hatred, obsessed by shiny TGVs and the memories of their pleasant holidays in southern Europe, they assume that things must - just must - bebetter in Europe.

Almost all Labour MPs privately believe that the solution to our own lack of growth is to rejoin the single market or customs union, even though these have failed to save Europe's own economies. How can further increasing our ties with a zero-growth continent or a shrinking German economy do anything for Britain? It can't. And how will the British Left respond to the rise of the far Right in Europe? Will it still love Germany if the AfD is part of its government? Will it still love statist France if Marine le Pen is in the Elysee?

Britain is in an appalling state, but so is Europe. The Brexiteers' Euro-pessimism has been vindicated; the problem is that the establishment refused to use Brexit to break with Brussels' regulatory philosophy and to re-orient our economy away from stagnant EU markets. Britain is therefore increasingly suffering from the same pathologies as Europe, and facing a similar terminal decline. This isn't an argument for more EU, but one for even less, as well as radical domestic change. Europe's gradual eclipse is accelerating, and it would be absurd for any British government to consider realigning the country with it.