A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

24 February 2024

A brief history of the war in Ukraine. 

On the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine here is a brief summary of events leading up to the tragic situation today here.

1. 1991 Breakup of the Soviet Union 

Marks the beginning of significant turmoil for the newly independent states, with Russia facing a decade of weakness: economic struggles, political instability, official kleptomania and corruption, and reduced global influence.

2. 2000 Vladimir Putin's Ascension to Power 

Putin comes to power with a mandate to restore order and strength from the chaos of the 1990s, aiming to reassert Russia's standing on the world stage.

3. 2004 Orange Revolution 

A significant political event in Ukraine, where mass organised protests led to a transition of power after a disputed presidential election. This movement reflected Ukraine's growing divide between pro-European Union aspirations and those favouring closer ties with Russia, setting the stage for future tensions.

4. 2000s Putin's Interest in NATO Membership 

Early in his presidency, Putin expresses interest in Russia’s joining NATO, aiming to build closer ties with the West and ensure security cooperation.

5. 2002 US Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty 

Signals the start of increased tensions over missile defence in Europe, affecting the strategic balance between the U.S. and Russia.

6. 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest 

The summit discussions on extending NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine significantly heighten tensions with Russia.

7. 2014 Maidan Revolt 

The coup in Ukraine with CIA encouragement (Victoria Nuland) leads to a change in government, exacerbating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, and deepening the divide between NATO and Russia. Russia seized back Crimea.

8. 2015 Minsk Agreement and Its Failure 

Despite the agreement's aim to resolve the conflict in Donbas, Kyiv resumes shelling in the region, leading to approximately 14,000 civilian casualties over the next eight years. The guarantors, Holland French PM and Merkel, German chancellor have admitted that Minsk was a purely delaying tactic to give the West time to arm the regime in Kiev.

9. 2019 End of the INF Treaty 

The U.S.'s termination of the treaty further strains relations and negatively impacts European security.

10. December 2021 Putin's Security Guarantee Proposal 

Putin proposes security guarantees to prevent NATO's eastward expansion, reflecting Russia's security concerns. This proposal was simy ignored by the West.

11. February 2022 Russian Intervention in Ukraine 

Citing the protection of Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine as one of the reasons, Putin's intervention marks a significant escalation in the conflict which began in military terms in 2014.

12. March-April 2022 Peace Accord Initiatives and External Influences 

A peace accord between Ukraine and Russia shows promise for ending hostilities, but external influences, particularly from the U.S. and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, encourage the continuation of conflict.

13. Early 2020s Global Alliances and Divisions 

The world becomes increasingly divided into competing blocs, with the U.S., EU, and NATO on one side, and a coalition led by China and Russia on the other.

14. Impact of the Ukraine War 

Amidst failed diplomatic, economic and military strategies, the ongoing conflict presents broad challenges for Europe, necessitating a re-evaluation of European security and defence strategie and the role of America in European affairs today. 

References:

https://www.youtube.com/live/Ptaya7stymw?si=wcS1928QuySbw3Vl

REVIEW

https://youtu.be/U21-RrB8E6Q?si=XSkbQKABp5Wr51np

1. **NATO Expansion Eastward**: Post-Cold War, NATO began expanding eastwards towards Russia's borders. This was perceived by Russia as a threat to its security, especially after the inclusion of former Warsaw Pact countries and Baltic states into NATO.

2. **Orange Revolution (2004-2005)**: Ukraine's Orange Revolution marked a significant political shift towards pro-Western sentiments. This period underscored Ukraine's growing divide between pro-European Union factions and those favoring closer ties with Russia.

3. **EU Association Agreement Controversy (2013)**: Ukraine's decision to suspend an association agreement with the EU, under pressure from Russia, sparked mass protests known as Euromaidan. These protests eventually led to the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian leader.

4. **Annexation of Crimea (2014)**: In the aftermath of Euromaidan, Russia annexed Crimea following a controversial referendum. This move was widely condemned by the international community and marked a significant escalation in tensions.

5. **Conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2014-present)**: Shortly after the annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine declared independence, leading to ongoing conflict with the Ukrainian government. This has resulted in thousands of deaths and has been a focal point of Russian-Ukrainian tensions.

6. **Minsk Agreements (2014 and 2015)**: Attempts to resolve the conflict in Eastern Ukraine led to the Minsk agreements, aimed at ceasing hostilities and establishing a political framework for the conflict's resolution. However, these agreements have largely failed to stop the fighting or lead to a lasting peace because they were not implemented by Ukraine.

7. **Increased Western Military Support for Ukraine**: In the years leading up to the invasion, Western countries, including the US and members of the EU, increased military support to Ukraine, further aggravating tensions with Russia.

8. **NATO's Continued Dialogue on Ukraine's Membership**: NATO's ongoing dialogue regarding Ukraine's potential membership further strained relations with Russia, which views Ukraine's accession as a direct threat to its security.

9. **Build-up of Russian Forces (2021-2022)**: In the months leading up to the invasion, there was a significant build-up of Russian military forces along the Ukraine border, signaling the possibility of an impending military operation.

10. **Invasion of Ukraine (2022)**: Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marking a significant escalation in the conflict and leading to widespread international condemnation and the imposition of severe sanctions against Russia.