UKRAINE: A PACK OF LIES

29 February 2024

This piece looks at the lies we are fed by the MSM, on behalf of....

1. The war in Ukraine is riddled with  misinformation - propaganda, if you prefer. Most MSM narratives contradict the actual situation.

2. Despite claims of Ukrainian success, Ukraine is actually losing, has already lost; and the war is weakening NATO rather than strengthening it.

3. Contrary to assertions of financial limitations, of the Republicans blocking the aid ($62b) that allow Ukraine to win, the real issue is the West's inability to produce sufficient ammunition, a problem unlikely to be resolved quickly.

4. The official casualty figures are wrong - Ukraine has built and lost three armies, 4 - 5 hundred thousand men dead and wounded, a ratio of 5 or perhaps 10 to one with Russian losses. It is Ukraine, not Russia, that is facing a critical shortage of soldiers, an issue not solvable with more funding.

5. The West's idea that it enjoys international support is very far from the truth. The global majority views U.S. policy as misguided at best, if not plain imperialistic, including the vassalisation of Europe. In addition, Western leaders have (deliberately) sabotaged multiple chances for peace negotiations eg Minsk 2015, Istanbul March 2022.

6. Continued fighting will only worsen Ukraine's position, contrary to claims that it would strengthen their negotiating stance.

7. The forecast is pretty grim: more funding will lead to further conflict, lengthening the war but not changing the outcome. Russia will capture more territory, and Ukraine will continue to suffer heavy losses. Ukraine will finish up a landlocked rump state somewhere west of the Dnieper, with land lost to Poland as well as Russia.

8. There will be mounting discontent, a crisis in Kyiv, and the eventual downfall of the Zelensky government, with the regime fleeing to multi-million dollar homes bought in other countries with Western aid money.

9. Post-conflict, those who advocated for the war will deflect blame, having stifled any alternatives and discredited dissenting voices. They will say "we tried our best".

10. The conclusion is cynical: history will repeat itself, there will be a repetition of past disasters of foreign policies seen from Vietnam to Afghanistan and across the Middle East, though Ukraine will be greatest - and quite possibly the last - of all foreign policicy adventures conducted by purely military means, with no diplomacy, no negotiation, only force, "he who lives by the sword ...". 

Those arguing for war, the Neocons they are called, will move on to advocate for future conflicts after Ukraine, such as Taiwan and China, having us forget the disastrous outcomes of their previous advocacies. 

The arms industry will continue to buy support in the legislatures and continue to waste the resources of democracies on wars that profit only them, instead of concentrating on commercial opportunities abroad and welfare and infrastructure at home.

In short, the truth has been obscured by a consistent stream of falsehoods. The saddest point of all is the last point here, that a global elite of neocons presumably servicing hedge funds etc, moved to Ukraine after finally cutting and running from losing positions in Afghanistan and similarly when it is clear Ukraine has been destroyed, they will move on to gut another victim and hang it out to dry. 

Finally, we taxpayers should constantly remind ourselves of who benefits from this war and remember too that Ukraine, like Gaza, will need public money for reconstruction....our money.

Conclusions

This perspective offers a critical and contrarian view of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, suggesting a significant divergence from (subsidised) mainstream media narratives. 

It emphasizes misinformation and propaganda, critiques the West's military and financial support for Ukraine, and questions the claimed international backing for the West's stance. 

This analysis suggests that Ukraine is in a far worse position than publicly acknowledged, predicting dire outcomes for the country and critiquing the motives and consequences of Western policies.

WARNING: This viewpoint is contentious and would likely spark debate, as it contrasts sharply with msm reports that usually highlight Ukrainian resilience and the effectiveness of Western support. This account of reality is skeptical of the official casualty figures, the production capacity of the manufacturing base for military aid, the global consensus on the conflict, and the long-term geopolitical strategies of the West, particularly the United States.

A reality borne out by the facts today: Chief neocon and number three in the Washington administration, Victoria Newland, announced that she is resigning, "resigning" though she was probably sacked ; and this marks the stepping away of America from Ukraine.

Links

https://youtu.be/ClitqYW8HVk?si=N3QSQUMMyce_Vot9

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/02/19/washington_and_the_mediarsquos_ukraine_war_of_lies_618178.html

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THE EURO IS DOOMED

27 February 2024

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/26/the-eurozone-could-soon-go-bust/

SUMMARY

The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, is experiencing unprecedented financial difficulties, having announced a distributable profit of zero after depleting €19 billion in provisions for financial risks. This situation is alarming as the Bundesbank has been a pillar of financial stability and conservatism since its establishment post-WWII. The bank anticipates further losses due to the disparity between the high interest rates it pays on bank deposits and the lower returns from bonds purchased under the European Central Bank's (ECB) quantitative easing programmes. Similar financial strains are reported by other central banks in the eurozone, including the Dutch central bank and the ECB itself, highlighting systemic issues within the zone's monetary policy framework.

EXTENSIVE QE HAS HIT ECB BALANCE SHEET

The ECB's extensive quantitative easing, aimed at preventing deflation and financial collapse in member states, has significantly increased its money printing, with the ECB's actions amounting to the equivalent of 82% of its GDP. Compare this with the Federal Reserve's 36% of GDP and the Bank of England's 39% of GDP. It is these measures that have hit the ECB's balance sheet, as central banks were obliged to buy bonds at near-zero interest rates but are today having to pay higher rates on deposits.

EURO GOVT.S MAY NEED TO RECAPITALISE THEIR CENTRAL BANKS

Despite these challenges, the Bundesbank and the Banque de France maintain that their balance sheets remain solid, with sufficient reserves to cover losses, but reality is concerns are growing about the potential need for central banks, particularly the Bundesbank, to be recapitalised by their governments. 

BREAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE EURO

Such a development could damage public trust in the eurozone, especially if German taxpayers beginto believe they are bearing the cost of bailouts for other member states, as this contradicts promises made about the euro's financial independence and stability given at the time of the Euro's creation.

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CAN GERMANY RISE AGAIN AND FREE EUROPE FROM THE AMERICAN EMPIRE

26 February 2024

Europe as a whole would have quite a lot to fear from a militarily resurgent Germany and yet how else can we build European independence?

This is about geopolitics, supply chains and innovation.

We need a NATO without America that shares the decisional and planning.

We need an industrial infrastructure that spreads out production so no home-industry could take over.

And we need a concerted innovation to produce better armements than America - if lil' old Russia can do it, why not big old western Europe ... preferable WITH Russia.

So this is what a 20-year strategy for achieving the goal of an independ Europe could look like. It's about organisation (E-NATO), planning (devolved) and production (rewired supply chains), with the gearing set by tremendous innovation (R&D, AI).

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SHOULD I CONTINUE TO INVEST IN THE "MAGNIFICENT SEVEN"?

25 February 2024

https://youtu.be/qLDMv2POHiE?si=qh429ZBRrVOy3vuF

Who are they:

The “magnificent seven” are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Also can include Netflix.

Questions:

They are mainly why the S&P 500 has done so well. Why is this? Will it continue? Should you invest? Or should youtime the market by staying out when prices are high, and get back in when they revert to lower trend prices?

Performance:

The Magnificent Seven have fundamentally driven the rally in the S&P 500, accounting for about 28% of its market cap, 19% of its profits, and 11% of its revenue. Their high profit margins contribute to this significant influence.

Future Outlook:

Ramin thinks these companies are likely to continue their dominance due to their innovative products and services, substantial revenue and profit generation, and global appeal.

Valuation Perspective:

A critical analysis based on Aswath Damodaran's valuation models (I know The Dean of Valuation from Simply Wall Street) suggests that most of these companies are priced reasonably in line with their fundamentals, except Nvidia and Microsoft, which appear overvalued - probably because they are at the epicentre of the AI Revolution.

Investment Strategy:

So no reason to avoid these giants. Very difficult for us amateurs to move in and out and back into the market in a way that beats the index.

Instead, carry on investing as their success and fundamental strengths will continue to make us shareholders money, at least for the next 2, 3 or 5 years.

Answer:

Stick with the world index by market cap.

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