Things are looking very bad. The Russians are butchering the Ukrainians, and along comes Hamas with a jolly trap for Israel. Israel fell in straight away so now we have another bloodbath.
The circumstances are horrific, although this is a military confrontation. What might happen when hostilies cease?
Let's take a look at what these ongoing massacres mean through three lenses. The scale is global: these conflicts are local, between nation-states, almost you might see them as civil wars, but they regional and most importantly, global repercussions. Second, the timeline started five centuries ago: today, we are looking at the West in decline, the unravelling of colonisation. Of course thirdly, there is a moral dimension: we should ask if supporting these causes is ethically correct as our actions will impact our credibility in the negotiating and implementation phases of resolving these conflicts.
THE DECLINE OF THE WEST
Back in the late 60s, we had Edward Säid who captured the West's attitude to Asia in the wor "Orientalism". Orientalism is the idea that the Middle East and Asia was one clump of mysterious underdevelopment that would never change. But now after five centuries of running their worlds, and ober 2,500 years of a culture dating back to the Greeks, it is the turn of "the Global South" to look at "Westernism" and see our decline, see the failures of America and NATO against Russia, see the wasted trillions in failed foreign adventures.
Meanwhile China finishes off its belt and road and Russia re-industrialises.
America is no longer the "indispensable nation", it has failed at policing conflict situations, indeed it has created them, it has no manifest destiny or ability to rule over us in the name of global security. It listens to no-one, it just sends in the military (rarely its own).
INJUSTICE
Not just bloodbaths and Western decline, once we were the beacon of justice and fair play, and now we indict Putin while Natanyahu gets a free pass, we sanction Russia for non-respect of Intl law while Israel flouts 70 years of UN resolutions. What was once a boundary dispute is now a war of religion, a clash of civilisations: in the one a negotiated solution was possible, but Islam demands total surrender and Zionism is colonisation of biblical lands for the coming of the messiah. Before 7 October we could have fixed what is for the Arabs and Persians united, the mother of battles to come. But look now at the dogs we've woken up with such complacent and brutal kicks, to the point where now it is uncontrollable. And then there's "the enemy within".
GLOBAL
It's not obvious that ordinary people nor our elites truly realise that the West is now in the minority and facing an increasingly organised and powerful global majority. These aren't just "talking points". It's not just the Middle East, the Arabs and the Persians: now it's Africa and the rest of Asia and Russia too. It means the West cannot force through to the touchline. America can no longer do what it has been trying to do since the last war which is force its internal policies onto the rest of the world.
Here's a tape of a speech by indonesia's representative to the UN. Indonesia! Who normally wouldn't say boo to a goose!
ONLY SOLUTION IS MILITARY
It is not just military. It's not 48, 67 or 73. Today Israel is risking its homeland, sure, and losing the moral battle, the battle of ideas. Netanyahu has no plan that we know of other than his own salvation, his promise to keep Israel safe is false, and he is up against an organised and global enemy with ideology, strategy, plan, actions and results.
So it is a time for diplomacy, cooperation, working to find agreed solutions. The military is not the end, it is in service to politics and diplomacy. But I don't think there's anyone in Washington who could state what is the role of a diplomat. I don't think they understand diplomacy. And their goal of world domination is madness these days, I mean ... isn't that obvious? Same same for Israel's revenge.
Because the Middle East had been quiet, as Jake Sullivan observed, doesn't mean that the Israel-Palestine conflict wasn't ruminating away. But even if America would agree to a two-state solution, there are no moderate voices in Israel nor Gaza to lead the negotiations - they are dead or radicalised. And even if a two-state solution were agreed and the 700,000 illegal settlers in the West Bank were cleared things have come to a pretty pass and I think the Arab nations would wipe out the lesser Israel the day after it was reformed, because America will be too weak to back it.
ISRAEL CANNOT SUCCEED ITS MISSION
More practically, the aim of the Israeli operation in Gaza is to destroy Hamas. Really? There's no way they can pull this off unless they commit genocide and kill all Palestinians in Greater Israel.
THE RESULT LONG-TERM WILL BE MORE TERRORISTS AND LESS SECURITY
For each Hamas member that they kill, they create ten more.
This operation gets revenge but doesn't improve Israel's security problem. It just unites the Arab world and the Global Majority against Israel and The West.
The number one priority of any country is its security, but this operation will only reduce Israeli security.
America's top generals have come through the fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and they know that the longer this goes on, the more children and women especially that are killed, the more terrorists are recruited.
THE RISK OF WORLD WAR INCREASES
America has forward deployed huge numbers of men and equipment to the area what does this do for the prospects of a third world war?
We can seek a permanent resolution in line with UN Security Council resolutions, or we can seek military solutions.
0 comments:
Post a Comment
Keep it clean, keep it lean