Assessing whether the United States is overwhelmed in its economy, its global role, and its domestic affairs, is a matter of perspective, and opinions on this subject can vary widely. I take a pretty negative and cynical standpoint, not by personal disposition, but from history and my own reading of events.
Here are some considerations:
Let's be perfectly frank about this, is that the Americans have no idea what they are doing and no plan going forward. They are just hopeless. All they can do is destroy, but now their game of Whac-A-Mole is bigger than them.
All this is driven by sentiment and ideology, without much in the way of pragmatic planning, matching requirements to resources, budgeting, a sense of cooperation and shared destiny with the rest of the world, just the deaf head and violence.
Just to state the obvious and what everyone knows:
1. Economy
The U.S. still has the largest economy in the world, perhaps not measured by PPP, but it does face economic challenges. Issues such as income inequality, high levels of debt (both at the government and household levels), and the impact of the pandemic and its failed sanctions against others, have generated economic concerns. However, on the bright side, the U.S. does have a history of resilience and adaptability in its economy - I was sure the end was nigh in 2008, but here we are still rolling along in 2023.
However, not only do tax receipts not cover expenses, but in reality there is no budget to control against and with inflation keeping up interest rates and a debt of 33 trillion, interest payments are fast approaching half the federal expenditure. Who is going to want to fund that longer term?
Ok the dollar is the world's reserve currency and when the world is stressed there is this flight to safety where everyone, not just for reasons of trade, but reasons of safety, buys the dollar ... but for how much longer can that continue? How much longer can the world keep confidence in the dollar? And for how much longer can interest rates contain inflation without breaking the bond market and thus equities and the whole economy?
The fourth branch of government, the Fed, and Powell, "the man in the arena", are doing a fantastic job of managing progress along the tight rope, but to the left is system collapse and to the right is currency desruction; and while things look okay and humming along on the surface, deep down there are structural undercurrents that will push him off.
2. Global role
The U.S. has a complex global role with around 800 military bases worldwide. While it maintains a strong military presence and plays a significant role in international affairs, truth be told it faces challenges in maintaining its global leadership due to changing geopolitical dynamics that it has provoked, including the threat from Russia, the rise of China. We have entered a multi-polar world which America seems unable to manage or even accept.
America is readying itself for and is financing a three-front war against Russia, China and the Middle East Arab states.
Plus with its history of war followed by debacle, its bullying and vassalising of its allies instead of cooperating and goal-sharing, its partisan support of lost causes, it has provoked a global majority in the form of BRICS+++ and on the floor, the General Assembly, of the UN against it where control of the Middle East is being wrestled from it.
3. Social issues
The U.S. faces numerous social challenges at home, such as political polarisation, racial and social inequalities, and healthcare disparities. These issues have led to debates about the state of domestic affairs and governance.
Governance. No pragmatic plan for dealing with Russia. No pragmatic plan for Israel. Can't even elect a house speaker. Unacceptable levels of inequality.
Social. A country divided between extremists of a traditional disposition and neo- liberals.
Communication. Plus all this spin and propaganda - you have only to step outside the MSM, use your head, and the truth is there all around you, the dire circumstances the west led by America finds itself in. So for how much longer can the elite continue to contain the people?
Conclusions and hopes for the future
So we are in what is famously called The Fourth Turning, but instead of adaption, reform and a rebirth of the American Order, which is what we in Europe would like most of all, we are likely to get more defeat and currency collapse, maybe a global war, and probabl over the next decade a takeover where the West is put into the service of a new Order.
If you believe that history is made by great men rather than say geography, demography, technology or global rivalry, then in the West of today we have senility and lack of direction in place of wisdom and clarity. Today's government has lost its power of decision and America has lost its way.
We remember Kennedy's famous peace speech in 1963, we remember the process of detente begun in 1967 between Presidents Johnson and Kosygin, and we remember how an end to the Vietnam war was negotiated back in Paris in that same year allowing Nixon And Kissinger to normalise relations with China.
So while we can only expect defeat and failure from this administration, perhaps the next will be the one to reform and negotiate a way forward and stave off collapse.
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