LES ROUDOUDOUX

31 October 2023

(Version française en bas)

                                                  Roudoudoux

Strange how the mind works, leading you along country roads ...

Where does the word "Mistral" come from?

What is "Le Mistral Gagnant"?

My grandchildren to-be.

Where does the word "Mistral" come from?

"Mistral" ("Master" in Occitan) 

As everyone knows, the Mistral, originally, is the name of a cold wind that blows for a few strong days at a time down the Rhone river and out into the Med., the Gulf of Lion, reaching the Balearics and Palma. It's one of eight winds blowing across the Med from the eight points of the compass.

If you travel Provence, you'll notice the farmhouses mostly face South, not for the sea, but to have your back to the wind. And the belfries and bell towers are often of wrought iron to let this wind through!!

What is "Le Mistral Gagnant"?

There was a French singer-songwriter, Renaud, still around today, surprising as he's a right alkie-alcoholic. He was very popular in the 1970s 80s 90s.

He wrote a very sentimental song for his little daughter, all about his memories from when he was her age, stealing sweets from his sweet shop. It was published in 1985, the year I arrived in France.

Anyway, one of those sweets was a kind of sherbet dip, sherbet that you sucked up through a liquorice straw so it fizzled and exploded and sent a rush of cool across your tongue. And the name the sweetmaker gave to that bonbon was "mistral gagnant", hence the name of Renaud's song.

Another favourite were "les roudoudoux" - a dob of brightly coloured sugar syrup served in a seashell that the girls would lick out and so doing often cut their little pink tongues.

My grandchildren to-be.

Well that's a very nostalgic song of memories past, but for me it's a song about the future. I have two wonderful sons, no daughters as it happens, so I am looking forward to having grandchildren.

Le Mistral gagnant

https://youtu.be/_YqzuE-5RE8?si=mlzMrxbfHZWqeLpI

Lyrics

(Click to see lyrics in original and translation)

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31 octobre 2023

 D'où vient le mot « Mistral » ?

 Qu'est-ce que "Le Mistral Gagnant" ?

 Mes futurs petits-enfants.

 D'où vient le mot « Mistral » ?

"Mistral" ("Maitre" en Occitan) 

 Comme chacun le sait, le Mistral, à l'origine, est le nom d'un vent froid qui souffle pendant quelques jours forts à la fois sur le Rhône et dans la Méditerranée, le Golfe du Lion, pour atteindre les Baléares et Palma.  C'est l'un des huit vents qui soufflent sur la Méditerranée depuis les huit points cardinaux.

 Si vous voyagez en Provence, vous remarquerez que les mas sont pour la plupart orientés plein sud, non pas pour la mer, mais pour tourner le dos au vent.  Et les beffrois et clochers sont souvent en fer forgé pour laisser passer ce vent !!

 Qu'est-ce que "Le Mistral Gagnant" ?

 Il y avait un auteur-compositeur-interprète français, Renaud, toujours là aujourd'hui, surprenant car il est un vrai alcoolique.  Il était très populaire dans les années 1970, 80 et 90.

 Il a écrit une chanson très sentimentale pour sa petite fille, qui raconte ses souvenirs quand il avait son âge, lorsqu'il volait des bonbons dans sa confiserie du coin.  Ce chanson fut publié en 1985, l'année de mon arrivée en France, comme par hasard.

 Quoi qu'il en soit, l'un de ces bonbons était une sorte de trempette au sorbet, un sorbet qu'on aspirait avec une paille de réglisse pour qu'il pétille et explose et envoie un flot de fraîcheur sur ta langue.  Et le nom que le confiseur a donné à ce bonbon était « mistral gagnant », d'où le nom de la chanson de Renaud.

 Un autre favori était "les roudoudoux" - une dose de sirop de sucre aux couleurs vives, servi dans un vrai coquillage que les filles léchaient et se coupaient ainsi souvent leur petite langue rose.

 Mes futurs petits-enfants.

 Eh bien, c'est une chanson très nostalgique sur les souvenirs du passé, mais pour moi, c'est une chanson sur le futur.  J'ai deux merveilleux fils, mais pas de filles, donc j'ai hâte d'avoir des petits-enfants.

 Le Mistral gagnant

 https://youtu.be/_YqzuE-5RE8?si=mlzMrxbfHZWqeLpI

 Lyrics

 (Cliquez pour voir les paroles en original et en traduction)

===

Saka ngendi asale tembung "Mistral"?

"Mistral" ("Master" ing basa Occitan)

 Minangka everyone mangerténi, Mistral, Originally, iku jeneng angin kadhemen sing ngunekke kanggo sawetara dina kuwat ing wektu mudhun kali Rhone lan metu menyang Med., Teluk Singa, tekan Balearics lan Palma.  Iki minangka salah siji saka wolung angin sing nyabrang Med saka wolung titik kompas.

 Yen sampeyan lelungan Provence, sampeyan bakal sok dong mirsani farmhouses biasane ngadhepi South, ora kanggo segara, nanging duwe bali menyang angin.  Lan lonceng lan menara lonceng asring saka wesi tempa supaya angin iki liwat!!

 Apa "Le Mistral Gagnant"?

 Ana penyanyi-penulis lagu Prancis, Renaud, isih ana nganti saiki, nggumunake amarga dheweke alkohol alkohol sing bener.  Dheweke misuwur banget ing taun 1970-an 80-an 90-an.

 Dheweke nulis lagu sing sentimental banget kanggo putrine sing cilik, kabeh babagan kenangan nalika umure, nyolong permen saka toko manise.  Iki diterbitake ing taun 1985, taun aku teka ing Prancis.

 Oalah, salah siji saka manisan iku jenis sherbet dip, sherbet sing sampeyan nyedhot munggah liwat liquorice kang dipercoyo supaya fizzled lan mbledhos lan dikirim rush saka kelangan liwat ilat.  Lan jeneng sing diparingake dening tukang manis kanggo bonbon kasebut yaiku "mistral gagnant", mula jenenge lagu Renaud.

 Favorit liyane yaiku "les roudoudoux" - sirup gula sing warnane cerah sing disuguhake ing cangkang sing bakal didilat bocah-bocah wadon lan mula asring ngethok ilat jambon cilik.

 Calon putuku.

 Lha kuwi lagu kenangan masa lalu sing nostalgia banget, nanging kanggoku lagu masa depan.  Aku duwe anak lanang loro sing apik-apik, ora ana anak wadon kaya sing kedadeyan, mula aku ngarep-arep duwe putu.

 Le Mistral gagnant

 https://youtu.be/_YqzuE-5RE8?si=mlzMrxbfHZWqeLpI

Lyrics Lirik

 (Klik kanggo ndeleng lirik ing asli lan terjemahan)

 

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BY POPULAR REVOLT

Why isn't Europe doing anything practical to prevent israeli war crimes?

It is obvious to any cynic that the coming israeli clearout of gaza is in line with the historic orthodox intention of reoccupying holy land. Bibi is ready to risk everything in the service of this goal - his own personal future is a chip he is playing as well.

The stakes are raised in every domain of human activity on this planet. That sounds v dramatic, but the risks faced by peoples everywhere and the lies being told are without precedent.

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The MSM prevents any comment on this subject.

Take stock of the severity of political and military positions taken by leaders everywhere across Earth, we see high stakes the stakes are raised in every domain of human activity. That sounds v dramatic, but the risks faced by peoples everywhere and the lies being told are without precedent.

While I cannot imagine my fellow countryman taking to the streets in the millions, history shows that these desperate situations are always resolved by what you might call popular revolt.

I would only say that comment is about the only safety valve at the moment and the FT is not showing much wisdom for the long term by bottling up the legitimateconcerns of ordinary thinking folk like me.

It's the same everywhere and without giving a fair hearing to both sides and without responding to people's demands it will all end in blood and tears.

Europe by its wealth and its population is bigger than America, but Europe is in shackles to America. What is needed is a long-term plan to redress or remove American influence.

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Europe by its wealth and its population is bigger than America, but Europe is in shackles to America. What is needed is a long-term plan to redress or remove American influence.

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ARE NATWEST SHARES A BARGAIN?

29 October 2023

Banks often trade at less than book value, ie the market cap is below the book value, book value is assets minus liabilities.

So the questions today are: why do banks often trade below their book value and are NatWest shares currently a bargain or is NatWest a value trap?

In general, banks may trade below book value for many reasons. Geopolitical uncertainties that threaten global peace and the price of oil, is one factor. Investors are uncertain about the quality and valuation of the bank's assets - its  loans, securities, or derivatives. Banks face many risks - credit risk, interest rate risk, regulatory risk. Then there are macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates, economic growth, and inflation, that can influence a bank's profitability and so its market valuation. As to the regulatory environment around operations and capital requirements, these may limit the bank's ability to generate high returns on equity.

The special problem at this time is how the sudden rise in interest rates and promise of "higher for longer" has impaired the quality of bank loans and reduced their valuation. Not just banks but insurance companies too insurance companies try to match their future liabilities with future income from safe and stable assets usually government bonds but owing to the very low interest rate regime insurance companies have had to move into the equities and derivatives market in order to do this matching.

Today, let's look at just one factor: derivatives trading. This is not widely understood and so often overlooked. Typically, of a bank's total earning, half or more would come from the interest on making loans, while another 25% might come from derivatives trading.

When you look at the amounts the bank puts at risk from this trading, they are totally crazy, and can be as much as 50 times the bank's market cap.

What are derivatives? What is hedging? Derivatives are just agreeing a future price on for example a commodity like wheat, old as the hills this was farmers securing next year's income, and then when the time comes the differences are settled and someone wins it all and someone loses it all. A bank will buy a bunch of assets that it considers are ever so slightly undervalued and then it will hedge its bet by shorting similar assets that it considers slightly overvalued; and it will wait for those differences, or valuation gaps, to close and pocket the money. That is how hedge funds use derivatives to make money.

That sounds risky, who can predict the weather? Uncertain, even though the differences between the future price and the present price may be quite small.

But that's nothing risky. What really makes it risky is that because those differences are so small, the banks weigh in really heavily using borrowed money to magnify their expected gain - this kind of leverage makes for a hugely risky game, one that can produce spectacular gains or of course catastrophic losses. 

What leverage multiplier? LTCM Long Term Capital Management is the usual quoted example. It leveraged 25 times so its market cap of four billion was turned into a bet of a hundred billion, which it could have lost, which would have devastated its creditors and its lenders and brought down the system. Lehman brothers went bankrupt when the government allowed the sub-prime crisis to collapse Lehman bringing on the 2008 financial crisis. Its leverage was 30 to 1. Thirty to one. Just consider that, set in the context of "too big to fail" and "moral hazard". The profits are pocketed but the losses are mutualised with taxpayers.

Risks at that level explain why banks often trade at below par and especially at this moment in the financial system where everything seems to be going pear-shaped...

But as Joseph Wang said today,

 https://youtu.be/TU423lhdNng?si=UMrUHyaN42lAfgrD 

things seem to be past their worst, in which case those Natwest shares, now trading at 72% of book value, may be very cheap indeed! And compared with their peers, this is cheap. 

NatWest's 3rd quarter revenues and earnings missed analysts' expectations by 3.3 and 3.8 pc, and earnings are expected to decline by 5.8pc per year for the next three years, but were impressive - revenue up 9.3pc, net income up 64pc, EPS 10GBp as against 5.9 3Q2022, profit margin 29pc up from 20pc a year earlier - mainly from the higher revenue. PEG 5-yr expected is just 0.38.

The share price declined 17pc on these results, leaving the stock trading on a forward PE of 4x as against 5x in the UK banking industry. Total returns to shareholders have been 68pc over the past three years. 

The current yield is 8.5%, 15.5 GBp, as against an average of 6pc for banking as a whole, on a payout ratio of just 31pc, EPS were 52 GBp. An unreliable divi record, though applying the same payout ratio, are forecast to reach 11.3pc in three years.

shareholder returns incl dividends

 

Luke Gromen tells a very different story from Joseph Wang,

https://youtu.be/jJ3ajrsz-IY?si=TNzvRfoy9no-8oPq

He argues that the bond market will collapse (ie the entire economy) if the US dollar and oil remain high.

Impossible to say whether NatWest shares are a buy or an avoid with all this uncertainty, but in general financials are not a part of the economy where many contrarian analysts would choose to be, better to be in hard assets, precious metals, commodities, manufacturing possibly, industries connected with renewal of infrastructure and utilities.

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THE TROUBLE WITH THE MIDDLE EAST

25 October 2023

Sunak, von Leyen, go to Jerusalem to show support for Netanyu's bombing of his concentration camp.

This is so disgusting! This is one of those rare ocassions where ordinary people - well, me - would take to the streets.

It is so hugely outrageous and really difficult to understand. They should be supporting Guetteres and not Netanyahu. Israel should be blackballed by the West.

What does this do for our global standing?

This is a phase in the West's history where its fear of decline is blinding it to reason. The West has taken off its thinking cap, enlightenment Europe is stupidly following the idiot leadership in Washington. It is not even following its emotions, it is more a primeval, reptilian, response.

It was France that led us out of the dark ages intellectually speaking with its revolutionary values and its creation, practically-speaking, of the nation state. France was a beacon to the world, shining these modern ideas from Europe.

And yet look at that twat Macron, there's no other word for him, he goes to Israel and confirms that the priority is the release of Israeli hostages. This is really foolish and if enacted would get this conflict absolutely nowhere -  releasing the hostages is the very last thing to do, only once there is enactament of peace and justice.

The Israeli state is a fait accompli, a historical fact, but bombing its Arab citizens out of existence, or pushing them into the desert or the sea, is completely and totally unacceptable - it's ethnic cleansing, it's genocide ... call it what you want.

The Israelis are hysterical as usual because all this has happened to them before and anyway they are a people from the scorched and ever-shifting sands of the Middle East, they are all the same: highly emotional, overheated, raging, blind....extreme heat and unrelenting sun can generate emotions like frustration and irritability, emotions that overwhelm. 

Try to imagine the relief that the shade of a man's hand brings when the temperature is 50° - this is a story from the Bible incidentally, it's a story we living in cooler climes have difficulty in relating to but if you've ever lived there, you'll understand why these people can be so rabid and why Islam was the true "final solution" and why ordinary Muslims are generally the most peaceful people on earth. 

But here we are following them in their hysteria where we should be calming them down and taking issue with them and putting them on a path which would avoid a major conflagration.

This is Zionism that is responsible, this idea of a greater Israel from the Jordan to the Mediterranean, of a completely false idea of a land with no people for a people with no land. To condemn Zionism is not being anti-semitic or jewophobic it is to condemn a nasty and pernicious ideology and condemn a government that is driven by this racist thinking. Jews everywhere should be ashamed of Netanyahu and the extreme orthodox right.

If there are three rules in life for finding the truth and a way firward, the first is to chuck away all ideologies (not easy) (religeon is an ideology btw). Zionism is an understandable response to the pogroms, but it is still a very nasty "ism" that wouldn't last five minutes if it were freely debated in public, in Europe today.

https://youtu.be/zUuOayK9lb8?si=PkE1-PmWioaew5rb

And to that video, this three-star general that is helping the Israeli government plan its ground offensive. Well there are apparently about 48 four and five star generals these days in America's DoD, whereas the last war was won by eight such generals. I seem to recall this from a Mearsheimer.

And as to these tunnels. I have no idea, but I would imagine that the heavy bombing is an exercise producing seismic information that would allow a pretty clear mapping of The Tunnels and then just rolling down damn-buster type bombs through them would collapse them, I would imagine.

And yeah all the longer term health consequences of blowing apart buildings full of toxic castinogens or all that depleted uranium and all the other stuff, it  isn't exactly good for nature and the environment - these are really stupid people we are dealing with, stupid in the Ekhart Tolle sense of not being in tune with the universe.

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WHY DOES AMERICA CHOOSE CONFLICT OVER COOPERATION?

23 October 2023

Isn't it about time that the fed which is the fourth arm of government stood up to defend the currency which is its role after all.

And more particularly why has it allowed the government to carry on spending in a way that is completely unrelated to its income?

America has identified and provoked enemies in Russia and China and the Middle East where none of these countries sought a conflict. Why did America frustrate the UN agreement that it signed to resolve the crisis in Ukraine between Kiev and the Donbas known as the Minsk 2 Accord of 2015?

Why did America sabotage the peace agreement that Ukraine was negotiating with Moscow in March last year?

Why is America provoking China in its relations with Taiwan and in its sanctions?

Why is America taking such an overly partisan role in the Israeli conflict, failing to support its own two state solution and attracting the ire of the global majority?

Why is America pushing war and unfair trade practices, instead of getting on down and doing what it did so well in the past, which was technical innovation, commercial success and global detente?

Why are we in Europe vasellised and mistreated - even the outrage of blowing up our infrastructure and forcing us to fight our principal supplier and our principal external customer - by a senile dictator in Washington, instead of jointly developing true policies between equal allies with shared goals and objectives of peace, justice and prosperity?

It is demented.

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IS AMERICA OVERWHELMED ECONOMICALLY, OVERSTRETCHED EMPIRICALLY AND DIVIDED SOCIALLY?

23 October 2023

Assessing whether the United States is overwhelmed in its economy, its global role, and its domestic affairs, is a matter of perspective, and opinions on this subject can vary widely. I take a pretty negative and cynical standpoint, not by personal disposition, but from history and my own reading of events.

Here are some considerations:

Perspective

Let's be perfectly frank about this, is that the Americans have no idea what they are doing and no plan going forward. They are just hopeless. All they can do is destroy, but now their game of Whac-A-Mole is bigger than them.

All this is driven by sentiment and ideology, without much in the way of pragmatic planning, matching requirements to resources, budgeting, a sense of cooperation and shared destiny with the rest of the world, just the deaf head and violence.

Just to state the obvious and what everyone knows:

1. Economy

The U.S. still has the largest economy in the world, perhaps not measured by PPP, but it does face economic challenges. Issues such as income inequality, high levels of debt (both at the government and household levels), and the impact of the pandemic and its failed sanctions against others, have generated economic concerns. However, on the bright side, the U.S. does have a history of resilience and adaptability in its economy - I was sure the end was nigh in 2008, but here we are still rolling along in 2023.

However, not only do tax receipts not cover expenses, but in reality there is no budget to control against and with inflation keeping up interest rates and a debt of 33 trillion, interest payments are fast approaching half the federal expenditure. Who is going to want to fund that longer term?

Ok the dollar is the world's reserve currency and when the world is stressed there is this flight to safety where everyone, not just for reasons of trade, but reasons of safety, buys the dollar ... but for how much longer can that continue? How much longer can the world keep confidence in the dollar? And for how much longer can interest rates contain inflation without breaking the bond market and thus equities and the whole economy?

The fourth branch of government, the Fed, and Powell, "the man in the arena", are doing a fantastic job of managing progress along the tight rope, but to the left is system collapse and to the right is currency desruction; and while things look okay and humming along on the surface, deep down there are structural undercurrents that will push him off.

2. Global role

The U.S. has a complex global role with around 800 military bases worldwide. While it maintains a strong military presence and plays a significant role in international affairs, truth be told it faces challenges in maintaining its global leadership due to changing geopolitical dynamics that it has provoked, including the threat from Russia, the rise of China. We have entered a multi-polar world which America seems unable to manage or even accept.

America is readying itself for and is financing a three-front war against Russia, China and the Middle East Arab states.

Plus with its history of war followed by debacle, its bullying and vassalising of its allies instead of cooperating and goal-sharing, its partisan support of lost causes, it has provoked a global majority in the form of BRICS+++ and on the floor, the General Assembly, of the UN against it where control of the Middle East is being wrestled from it.

3. Social issues

The U.S. faces numerous social challenges at home, such as political polarisation, racial and social inequalities, and healthcare disparities. These issues have led to debates about the state of domestic affairs and governance.

Governance. No pragmatic plan for dealing with Russia. No pragmatic plan for Israel. Can't even elect a house speaker. Unacceptable levels of inequality. 

Social. A country divided between extremists of a traditional disposition and neo- liberals.

Communication. Plus all this spin and propaganda - you have only to step outside the MSM, use your head, and the truth is there all around you, the dire circumstances the west led by America finds itself in. So for how much longer can the elite continue to contain the people?

Conclusions and hopes for the future

So we are in what is famously called The Fourth Turning, but instead of adaption,  reform and a rebirth of the American Order, which is what we in Europe would like most of all, we are likely to get more defeat and currency collapse, maybe a global war, and probabl over the next decade a takeover where the West is put into the service of a new Order.

If you believe that history is made by great men rather than say geography, demography, technology or global rivalry, then in the West of today we have senility and lack of direction in place of wisdom and clarity. Today's government has lost its power of decision and America has lost its way. 

We remember Kennedy's famous peace speech in 1963, we remember the process of detente begun in 1967 between Presidents Johnson and Kosygin, and we remember how an end to the Vietnam war was negotiated back in Paris in that same year allowing Nixon And Kissinger to normalise relations with China.

So while we can only expect defeat and failure from this administration, perhaps the next will be the one to reform and negotiate a way forward and stave off collapse. 

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MONEY HEAVEN UNLOCKS THE DEBT CRISIS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOREIGN WARS.

21 October 2023

Since 1971, US govt.s have spent like there's no tomorrow - today it seems like there won't be.

America broke the dollar-gold link because France and Germany were asking that the money they'd lent be returned in gold. Effectively, America had defaulted. 

Correct me if I have misunderstood things.

America is in a cleft stick. Tax receipts don't cover expenses, raising interest rates take interest payments to ? 40% of receipts, so need to borrow even more...but who is going to lend at that risk and that interest rate, so the markets are driving the 10-year yield.

Lower rates and you stoke inflation. 

Raise rates and you bust bonds, then equities, then the real economy.

First, property suffers, especially commercial. 

Then higher inflation causes demand to slacken so company revenues fall. 

Higher rates to tackle inflation mean higher costs for companies, on top of lower revenues and mean lower earnings. 

If profits fall, people get fired, unemployment rises. 

Now, welfare increases and demand in the economy drops. And so on...

How can the fed keep rates high when this will bust the bond market?

How can it meet interest payments?

The value of bonds is inversely related to the coupon and so if rates rise, bonds fall in value.

But these bonds are often collateral for other loans,

 which get downgraded and then at BBV- they reach junk status and have to be sold,

 increasing pressure on the bond market.

It is just cause-and-effect linkages, "action-reaction", Hegelian logic.

At first, they spent money they had.

Then, they spent money because it was so cheap.

And now, they spend because they no longer care, because they have to, the dollar is a busted flush and they know very well that the only way out is "higher forever"....higher inflation and total currency debasement...."the pound in your pocket" ha ha. That way, in real terms (face value minus inflation), the debt is worthless, it's gone, all burnt up ... but so is the currency.

So both parties in Congress and Parliament are as one in their delusions of Anglo-Saxon exceptionalism, divine providence and eternal hegemony. 

They enter foolish foreign adventure after foolish foreign adventure because they are totally paralysed, cannot evolve, cannot share, cannot understand.

They think they can endlessly spend their way out of trouble as if there are no limits.

Meanwhile populism reigns, the people take to the streets in their disgust at the wealth gap and these stupid wars. The elite won't change, can't change.

Meanwhile, they further their fortunes and careers. They offer us distractions and petty talking points, "liberal values", "human rights", identity politics, political correctness, they insult us with their specious propaganda.

It's worse than this. China too has a lot of debt and future obligations. This won't be an easy time for most countries on Earth. Geopolitics and climate change combine into a very severe existential threat.

It is absolutely true that geopolitics, climate, change and debt, combine into a dreadful "no tomorrow" scenario, but debt first of all.

MONEY HEAVEN

1. While there are Wars the world over, driven by fear and greed, it strikes me that the weakest of frontiers is the East-West divide in Europe, running from Finland right through to the Caucuses. With Europe, America and bits of east Asia up to Australia behind the line to the west; and Russia, China and the BRICS+ behind that line to the east. 

The West v. The Global Majority. 

In consequence, a Security conference is needed if we are to avoid to WW3...better not wait till after, but history teaches that an elite will never willingly go.

2. Managing cimate change, from the little that I understand, is already strategised and planned and even programmed, it's organised; it's just "the execution premium" that is missing.

3. And as to global debt, I cannot really imagine all the reckoning that is needed to cancel this all out, it's just too big for anyone's head to figure it out, but finally isn't it the politics of bean-counting? Perhaps chatGPT has the answer.

One thing worth adding is the idea of a "money heaven".

As others have remarked that increasing the money supply beyond the productivity of a nation increases inflation eventually, but as money, financials, is an unreal thing, the value in real terms of real assets goes down to a market-demand that is backed by the ability to pay using real assets. 

I suppose all that puffed up QE is pumped out and so the difference between "inflated" or unreal, and "real", is "vaporised" i.e it's just sent to money heaven. (You know what you have to do to get to heaven?)

So this ought to deal with a lot of the debt, but of course inflation is a painful remedy.

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HOW CYBERCRIMINALS WILL TRY TO HOOK YOU

21 October 2023

CLICK RATE BY EMOTIONAL TRIGGERING FACTOR IN 2023

 Curiosity 25%

 Trust 25%

 Pressure 24%

 Authority 28%

 Helpfulness 28%

 Request for money 18%

 Compliments 29%

Gain, logic, fear, scarcity

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REVIEW OF CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

19 October 2023

Another severe CBG Close Brothers Group SP share price dent seems underway today, today the share goes ex div, of course, I hear CBG is the most shorted stock in the 250.

Doesn't mean these hedge funds have any inside information, although maybe they do, but it does suggest that in their updated DCF discount cash flow valuations, they may have figured in higher delinquency rates... maybe 20% of loans are underwater.

Plus, it might be a few years now until market borrowing rates drop back some, and so CBG may have to refinance under more onerous conditions.

So banks and life insurance, financials indeed, would not be a sector that an investor would want to be in, other than for short-term trading, for a few years.

There just doesn't seem to be the earnings growth and higher returns on capital in CBG. Need to mark down EPS the earnings per share. This seems apparent from the graph of the share price over five years. If momentum indicators back each other up and suggest a share price decline, then instead of investing, I stay away, get out, or would invest in a company with good SP momentum.

The bottom-up method concentrating on fundamentals for target companies in a target index is the best departure point, as it provides a graded list of better-value candidates, ie companies with a solid history, solid balance sheet, earnings and return on capital giving it a record of industry leadership. But on the other hand, I do think it's important - having decided a company is a good bet historically - to take full account of future earnings in a DCF discounted cash flow, and indeed to take full account of the sector or industry which is more important really; and to go for solid leaders, inexpensively-priced and with an upward SP momentum.

A reasonable aim is a 30 to 50% premium over the next three to five years which is under normal circumstances achievable. And then having obtained most of the upside, through TSR total shareholder return (share price + dividends), sell out; or maybe keep under review if the company is still exceptional and continues to generate exceptional earnings.

But many at the moment have a lot, a third, in cash (includes gold), aiming to preserve  capital more than growth, leaving some firepower for once the recession seems to be bottoming out. Of course, the best laid plans ...

Anyway, bad luck with CBG but on the other hand MONY is still on the up, just about...

In general, from all we hear and read, we must understand that banks and life insurance and financially-driven companies are a sector to avoid for the next few years as the market is now wrestling back control over the artificial economy created by the Fed with first lowering the interest rate and then buying up all the bonds the govt needed to balance its tax receipts and expenditure.

 "Higher for longer" is really worrying as it threatens the bond markets and then equities, the govt budget eaten 40% by interest payments, and finally the whole system would finally collapse under the weight of debt; and so yet another QE would almost certainly kill demand for US govt debt with severe currency debasement.

So manufacturing, commodities...hard assets in the real world ...can we put the irreal aside and look here at the real?

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HAMAS V ISRAEL - WILL THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE TRANSFER TO OUR STREETS TOO?

15 October 2023

Well this is what we were talking about before : there's no evidence of any protests in France, which is a little bit surprising considering its connections to N Africa, its substantial muslim popn, its recent history of Charlie Hebdo massacre

 so maybe there are protests, it's just that they're not being reported, ie they are censored or supressed

So the question raised by your video is what will be the effect of the conflict in the Middle East on the streets of Edinburgh, Paris and London?

There is an obligation on Macron and the politicians in France to pursue policies of peace and justice - is this is what they are doing?

Britain's politicians are sending out warships to support Israel. Is this very smart? 

what the  politicians need is a refined sense of the practical. Practical means solutioning the problem.

Does sending warships out to support Israel solution this problem? I don't think so 

At the moment, they are saying in the same breath that Israel's right to defend itself is also its right to revenge. This is madness.

Obviously with or without Britain's help, Israel can destroy most of Hama but at what price to itself - the body bags, in the eyes of the international community which is no longer just the West ; 

and what will its own citizens make of what are evidently war crimes when you cut off supplies to an entire population and attempt genocide or deportation.

And anyway even if Israel does succeed in killing every last member of Hamas, what will this really achieve? Their children will grow up and fight the same fight as their fathers'. It happens every few years already. Perhaps they'll organise under a different name.

This is what happens when you do not have peace and justice.

It's the duty of politicians to serve the interests of their publics. Is Britain really serving the interests of the Brits by supporting this murderous regime and is Israel really furthering its own interests? Its primary concern is security. Does this help it along the road to a more secure Israel? Same same us in the UK. Same in France.

Hence the need for gifted politicians and diplomacy - what will force achieve if not repeat the cycle of violence?

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END OF THE ROPE FOR AMERICA IN UKRAINE

https://www.youtube.com/live/ZUtkCbQpw-0?si=CSHUwX1_b00Rk6Bt

Offset 16'45"

Primrose path - warning

As long as it takes - promise

End of the rope - America cut and run.

This is America's failure, going to be its greatest foreign policy failure

As predicted almost two years ago in this blog

Awful consequences for Europe due to its supine vassalised European leaders

Disgusting, stomach turning, terrifying for ordinary European people in its consequences

"End of the rope" means end of America's budget for aid to finance Kiev's war on Russian-speakers.

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HOW THE ISRAEL AND UKRAINIAN CONFLICTS ARE LINKED

12 October 2023

How are Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabahk linked in these twin conflicts? Consider the two levels of split opening up, both within Western societies that are splitting internally between extremists sides, and globally between nation states grouped into The West v. The Rest.

For this ME conflict, Israel is moving more clearly to the West, while the Middle East is moving to West Asia.

How to characterise the internal wars: "elite v. People"?, "neo-liberalism v. Socialism and Conservatism (traditionalists)"?

What of a global conflict (thinking America v. China). The world of nation-states is splitting between a neo-colonialist West led by Anglo-Saxons (America) v. The Rest, being those who share only a hatred or mistrust of The West.

Internal to Western societies, external in an advancing global conflict, both are dominated by warlike extremists. Moderates are forced to shut up or take sides.

So Israel moves to The West and defies the global move to power-sharing (a multi-polar world). 

Zelensky is a pathetic little monster, Israel is - however you see the brokers on both side - just dragging down The West by refusing to discuss reasonable and existing solutions, so lowering our chances in the real global battle and advancing our demise.

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HOW NAGORNO-KARABAK FITS INTO THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

10 October 2023

GEOGRAPHY

This map shows the Caucuses. Points of interest are the Caucasian mountains that demark Russia from the Northern Caucuses and the Lessor Caucasian mountains separating Armenia from Azerbaijan. The westernmost province of Azerbaijan is called Karabakh and within it is a district called Nagorno, to give Nagorno-Karabakh.

Notice Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, as far away as you can get from Armenia on the western shore of the Caspian. 

And Georgia, still south of the caucus mountains separating the caucuses from the Russian Federation, north of Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the Black Sea on the west and the Caspian on the east.

Notice also how the Caucuses have Turkey to the west Russia to the North and Iran to the south.

HISTORY

https://youtu.be/xums_KHP5mk?si=6hT7RzTBRCwVmRuD

In 77 AD, Armenia, greater Armenia, was the first state to convert to Christianity. Though by the 16C, much of Armenia had come under Safavid, Persian, Shia-Islam, rule. 

Over the centuries, Western Armenia came under Ottoman rule, while Eastern Armenia remained under Persian rule. 

In the 19C, Eastern Armenia was conquered by Russia in its war with the Ottoman Empire, and thus Greater Armenia was divided between Ottoman and Russian empires. 

In 1915, there was the infamous Armenian Massacre, carried out by Ottoman Turks. Historically, the usual methods used to convert populations to Islam were massacre, mass deportations, high taxes levied on people of the book, intermarriage and various discriminatory practices notably in employment.

 In 1918, Armenia gained independence from the collapsed Russian czarist regime. In 1920, Armenia became a Soviet republic.

Then in 1991 and with the first N-K war in 2020, there was a great population movement and all the Christians in the east moved to Armenia, save for Nagorno; and all the Muslims in the west moved to Azerbaijan.

The forgotten Holocaust: The Armenian massacre that inspired Hitler

SITUATION TODAY

The Nagorno district was an exclave of Armenia, but now with the second of the N-K wars, Christians have moved out to Armenia altogether and the Muslims have moved in - Shia Muslims mainly.

Baku, capital of Azerbaijan

So much conflict and religious "cleansing". Today, Azerbaijan, which is apparently about the least secular of the Muslim states - but it is Shia Islam, which to me is not really Islam at all and is certainly a lot more easygoing than the Sunnies, esp the Salafists in Arabia - and seems to have a  pragmatic and quite close partnership with Israel. 

The relationship is based on weapons sales and high technology, oil which Azerbaijan supplies to Israel, and security where Azerbaijan is looking for independence from both the Turks and the Persians.

Historically, it was Armenia that had the close relationship with Russia, since the Russo-Turkey war referred to above, and through the days of the USSR; but now that Armenia has let Nagorno-Karabak go, in order that the new prime minister, Vahagn Khachaturyan president since 13 March 2022, can be free of war, so as to, he hopes, join the EU and even thinks of joining NATO, apparently thinking he can do better than the fate that befell Georgia back in 2008, it is Azerbaijan that is drawing close to Russia.

As to Armenia today, of course we are talking about the Caucuses which have had centuries of conflict due to competition between Turkey, Russia and Persia. So understandable why Armenia would want out of all that, but for Armenia to become a European "exclave" or colony, would surely leave it with a host of problems with all its neighbours.

As to Azerbaijan today, we are talking about a rapprochement with Russia, its Northern neighbour, at a time when its Southern neighbour Iran is trying to patch things up with The House of Saud. Iran doesn't like this!

And to answer the point about Azerbaijan selling weapons to Ukraine, there were certainly reports and allegations suggesting that Azerbaijan was supplying weapons to Ukraine during Ukraine's conflict with Russia, but before the latest N-K war that seems to be part of drawing an independent Armenia into Europe and an Azerbaijan into Russian influence. However, the details of such transactions were not always clear, and they may have involved private arms dealers or other intermediaries rather than direct government-to-government sales. Having said that, no weapons manufacturer can sell weapons to another country without the knowledge and permission, albeit perhaps tacit, of its government.

FOOTNOTE

Although the conflict between Israel and Gaza is taking the headlines at the moment I'm going to file this for the moment under both labels Ukraine and Armenia.

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TROUBLE AT AL AQSA

8 October 2023

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/4/israeli-settlers-storm-al-aqsa-mosque-complex-on-fifth-day-of-sukkot

What about these troubles in Pale Steen?

 Bravo FT for not allowing comments on the current problem there.

After all we would not want readers expressing their majority disgust at is rail's behaviour over the last 70 yrs towards its concentrate on camp occupants ... in particular, at the behaviour of settlers who brought express desecration to the Ms' mosk, causing this bloody response in the first place.

But just a thought, instead of calling it a "surprise attack", shouldn't we really be calling it an "unprovoked invasion"?

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WHEN WILL THE FED PIVOT?

4 October 2023

Of course , America will never default on interest payments, which currently make up about 40% of tax receipts, but with a 32 trillion dollar debt and a higher for longer or even higher, there will be effects on the value of the currency ... maybe not now, but in a year or two's time

So that is one thing that would worry other sovereign governments wondering where to put their surpluses - is the dollar safe ?

another point they will think about is the illegal sanctions levied on Russia and the confiscation of its treasure. Particularly given America's a hard line attitude that if you are not with us you are against us so for example where does this leave India and how certain can China be that it's one or two trillion dollars of American government bonds will not be confiscated?.

Growth is not going to be enough to keep up interest payments without printing let alone pay down the debt. But this just means currency debasement, as I say maybe not now but within a couple of years.

To fight inflation - which doesn't in all seriousness look like it is really going away the current CPI says 3.7% but if you use volcas method it is more like 11.5% - hire interest rates are needed also to support the value of the currency and ensure that the extra billion of borrowing can be absorbed.

And yeah higher interest rates will destroy the system - higher interest rates mean higher corporate refinancing costs and lower profits, plus now we are a year nearer to the refinancing cliff than we were when the fed started raising

And higher interest rates mean credit costs to customers increase and this will cut back spending, ie lower revenues in the first place. If spending falls then firms will start to lay off workers. In fact rising unemployment is the last domino in the signals that we are entering recession.

So what is the fed to do? Surely given a choice between protecting the system or protecting the currency, it will choose the system. This would mean we are talking about the famous and long anticipated pivot - QE and rates back to zero, expand the credit supply but at the cost of still further debt. Increased credit an inflexible supply of raw materials will just provoke inflation again. And expanding the money supply for a fixed supply of inputs and goods, may restore demand, but it is like adding water to your wine it waters down the value of the currency, it debateses the currency. 

No wonder governments with a surplus are selling U.S treasuries and buying gold they are moving away from financial assets and into hard assets These Are the safest in the coming crisis.

But now comes the 64-million dollar question. When will the fed start printing again? Will it be when the system shows signs of destroying itself - for example a market crash? Or will a more determined and subtle Fed let everything descend into semi-chaos before cutting rates and starting QE? Hasn't the last year or two been about the Fed bolstering its tools, in the form of higher interest rates and lower money supply, in preparation for the next (the last? Yikes!) crisis and recession?

More cynically still, more realistically perhaps, just consider the matter from the point of view of supply and demand. The supply is pretty much infinite as we have seen - the govt does not balance its budget, it just spends more and more and more, regardless of tax receipts. For this reason, the US Treasury requires 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars of extra debt every year for the foreseeable future.

The demand was from the fed itself as it was practising QE. Also the banks were major buyers - hundreds of billions - but last year both stepped away and now this left hedge funds as the major buyer. Hedge funds can use cash-settled futures contracts on US government bonds for various reasons, such as hedging their portfolio risk, speculating on interest rate movements, or gaining exposure to the bond market without owning the physical bonds extra 2%.

Next in line after the Fed, the banks and the hedge funds, come pension funds and insurance companies. These funds are conservative in outlook, and yet as was revealed last year in the UK's liability driven insurance crisis, in fact these pension funds invest in equities; while insurers go for fixed income - but corporate bonds rather than treasuries as the upside spread of maybe 2% is more than the downside risk. But after these potential buyers, who? No-one,so expect bonds to drift higher.

From the point of view of supply and demand then the supply is pretty much infinite while the demand appears to be evaporating in conclusion we can say that it will not be the fed lowering rates that determines the cost of money it will be instead the market and the direction seems to be up on yields which without fed intervention i.e restarting QE would destroy the bond market.

And yet QE results in inflation and eventually currency debasement.

Surely the Fed knows this! I strongly believe that the real and true strategy of the Fed, and it's only choice since raising rates beyond a certain point will destroy the bond Market and thus equities and financial assets and the economy itself. is to burn off the debt through inflation and currency debasement. 

If you believe this then you'll believe that despite Powell's rhetoric, the Fed will have to pivot, ie print to buy up the excess govt bond issuance. So you'll want to put your money into hard assets such as precious metals and commodities and not leave it in equities, you'll want to avoid endebted or low-yield equities.

Further, you'll want to believe that in some way after burning off the debt, there will be recovery and the US will keep its top dog place!

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THE ROLE OF THE FED

30 September 2023

Easy to blame the Fed for all the financial and economic woes in America or indeed in the West. The Fed was created in 1913. Woodrow Wilson signed into law, against his better judgement. The two great rival banks, the protestant Goldman Sachs and the Jewish Rothschild, demanded with one voice, and forced him to create a Central Bank to oversee regulate and control the banking system, under threat following a number of crises, especially the crisis of 1907.

So it is clear that the Fed was created to manage the banking and monetary system and when I say "manage", in reality this would inevitably mean distorting the way the market left alone would naturally solve problems. The most recent formulation of its objectives are to control inflation, achieve full and inclusive employment, and fight climate change.

Let me explain why it may be wrong to blame the Fed, as in the links below, for the malaise in which America and Europe and Japan find themselves...

Society splits into an elite and us, the plebs.

The elite consists of those leaders of industry/military/congress who are in power;
those leaders aspiring to be (though with the exact same interests - it's just a game of musical chairs as to who actually finds themselves in government).
And then there's a counter-elite - like Trump.

Look again at this elite - the famous "power elite" that sociologist C. Wright Mills wrote about way back in 1956 - oh, and add in the permanent admin or "deep state". 

This gives us the three branches of government, plus the civil service and we should add in a fourth branch of government: the Federal Reserve, not catered for in the Constitution.

This elite will never relinquish power or wealth without a huge fight, never, but what is their actual function (apart from creating money for themselves)? It is to maintain and evolve the existing system, to their constant advantage. This is governance, but also strategy and is where central planning and programming is performed. 

As I see it, the elite is the central planning function, of which the Fed is the other half of the executive, they manage the national economic portfolio, under instructions.

You can't blame them alone, what they are doing is at the behest of and on behalf of the whole elite. They are after all the elite's banker.

References

https://youtu.be/2ISKbYFaqnk?si=vFsaa0HnGfkxXL9z

https://youtu.be/RBjlWkzdyi8?si=40PpJT2LM-rt-uP9

https://youtu.be/CYIp6rp2rqA?si=hKKYM2C06Q9IjH10

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