WESTERN WISHFUL THINKING AND ITS DANGERS

17 August 2023

Article from the FT 16 August 2023.

There are a couple of things that provoke thought by the thoughtful reader. One is that this article and other articles use the West's broad stream media as a place to share - from sharing ideas right through to sharing catchy or elegant turns of phrase. The result is an impressive unanimity of understanding, but of course that is also its weakness.

Because the other "thought for the day" is how life tends to surprise. Just when the majority share an idea and the confidence that goes with that position, life has a tendency to pull the rug and we fall on our ...

So I guess the message is: share ideas by all means, but first of all share the facts, share the truth; and this will enable us to avoid irr mitigate many unforseen "blacks swan" events.

There are seven "untruths" in this article - the future belongs to those who can spot them.

8. "A negotiated outcome, therefore, remains elusive. "

This is the last para in the article and also the first true statement. For consider:

1. "The next big step would be a summit of world leaders to endorse Kyiv’s resolution formula and increase pressure on Moscow to end the war".

As at the Jeddah summit, and the sanctions, there is no support for the Ukraine outside the West. None. And the BRICS conf 22-24 August will confirm this.

2. "The restoration of Ukraine’s full territorial integrity and the protection of its people"

Kiev started the action by shelling its people in the Donbas from 2014.

3. "what began as a war of choice, under the pretext that Ukraine belonged to the “Russian world”, has now become an existential fight not only for Putin but also for Russia itself."

It began in 2008 as an existential threat to Russia when Nato said Ukraine would join - the war followed the threat from Nato, not the other way round.

4. "there were no concrete plans to grant Ukraine Nato membership; this has backfired"

The invitation in 2008 has backfired on America.

5. "Moscow no longer describes Ukrainian territories controlled since 2022 as belonging to the “Russian world”"

Where did Moscow stop claiming that Ukraine is part of the Russian world? Russia is interested in Ukraine up to the Dnieper as it is part of the Russian world.

6. "The Kremlin is increasingly coming to terms with the fact that Ukraine will neither be “de-Nazified” (there will be no pro-Russian “puppet” government in Kyiv) nor “demilitarised”, nor will it remain neutral."

This is totally made-up by the author - the author is unable to provide one shred of evidence for this wishful thinking.

7. "It is now clear to Moscow that Ukraine will probably become part of the EU and anchored to Euro-Atlantic security structures."

As per above, wishful thinking.