Saturday 19 August 2023

WHEN TWO WORLDS CLASH - THE WORLD OF PAPER ASSETS V. THE REAL

19 August 2023


https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/real-assets/

We live in a world of paper assets v. hard assets. These worlds are more and more at war and many International Relations experts see a non-peaceful resolution of the conflict later this decade, with a New, or Reformed, World Order to be built in the mid-30s, doubtless by Gen X - who get things done - when they take over from the Boomers who were not very good at maintaining institutions.

The paper is the US dollar and all the financial assets like derivatives and so on and banks that hang off this. It is the world of the Western powers, the G7, former colonial masters, the institutions created by America after the last war with the rules for global trade and safeguarding the sea-lanes. It is the world of the US dollar reserve currency and the US debt pile.

The hard assets is a slowly emerging BRICS common currency anchored in the price of gold by weight (by weight - price can vary) and all the commodity and other hard assets, organised through several banks competing with the IMF and World Bank. It is the world of the BRICS, the G20, the Global South. The institutions being created eg at the next BRICS Conf 22-24 August, after the (failure of) war, the (failure of) sanctions, with the rules for global dominance written but revised by Washington (there's Intl Law, then there's "Our" law - the US is not signatory to many rules it imposes on others...). It is the world of a possibly emerging reserve currency, based on trade and diplomacy rather than dollar-dominance and war.


For readers thinking it is a good idea to stay top-dog or allied to top-dog, keep a couple or three things in mind:

We are evolving into a multipolar world which means that it is no longer exclusively the West or America that makes the rules therefore certain respect and power sharing and notion of equity is needed.

When other regimes appear to be in competition with the US or outright hostilities, it is best not to resolve Conflict by military means since the chances of decisive victory is near zero these days, negotiations are to be favored as they lead to win-win situations where both sides are more likely to reach a sustainable agreement.

If you have widely supported institutions making agreed upon rules and if you resolve conflicts by peaceful rather than military or by economic sanctions, then you are likely to keep up the trade flows which is after all what funds the dollar and American debt.

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