Monday 28 August 2023

IS CHINA FACING THE SAME COLLAPSE AS JAPAN?

28 August 2023

https://youtu.be/c1fJGruPZXo?si=qoE3CSvANHrfA_-2

Fascinating. I'd never heard that story about Japan's economic demise in the 80s, never thought about why it happened, or what it means for us today.

There are so many things to say about this, but let's try to see the mistakes in the usual explanation fed us, and instead look for the real reason, and finally look for similarities between Japan's economic difficulties and the current Chinese so-called collapse.

Yes we'd heard of the demise of the Japanese economy in the 1980s, the lost decade and how the stock market is still not back to the same level that it was 40 years ago.

Yes it's understandable that the leading power should try to spike the rivals, this happens in business and politics. Call it jealousy and envy if you want, but really it is a natural survival instinct - the same as in nature, for example where a pride of lions might mark its territory and try to take over the territory of neighbouring prides. So Jeffrey Sachs's reaction of surprise and hurt at the States' behaviour is rather naive, and haven't the preceeding empires - British, Dutch, Spanish...- always had tricks to keep their dominant position. 

You wonder why the West is unable to learn from its mistakes and instead continues its whack-a-mole, one-step thinking.

We know about the Triune, how the brain evolved over time from reptile to limbic to neocortex
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triune_brain

Survival of the Fittest doesn't properly apply to us because we can think, we can learn, we can plan and execute ... you'd think this, but all Empires - American, British, Dutch, Spanish, all the way back to Roman times and before - have behaved in the same way, which is spike their rivals guns, just as a pride of lions will mark its territory and endeavour to take over the territory of a neighbouring pride or tribe.

So Jeffrey Sachs while he is right is also a bit naive.

The answer lies in rules to govern this animalistic behaviour, from religion through to law.

But how do you get a hegemon to follow common sense, or international law, instead of trying to blow us all up?!

So it's war by whatever means, always will be, that's how we're programmed, so not surprised, this behaviour from America is to be expected, we need to recognise the pattern, the players won't react thoughtfully, but emotionally to these threats by just firing off the fight or flight mechanism. Noone in power will react by thinking through what is going on and applying common sense knowledge, the wisdom from history.

But I had never particularly thought about why the Japanese bubble burst, as explained by Jeffrey Sachs. We are told it was the laws of economics and I hadn't put together the so-called bursting, with America's responsibility for this.

Another interesting part of this whole story is that Japan's manufacturing success after the last war came from Quality Circles, as practiced at the Toyota car plant for example, but across the entire Japanese economy and this idea of total quality control TQC came from a guy sent by America to Japan to restart their economy. His name was William Deming and he is famous for statistical process control and Six Sigma. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming).

Well we are seeing history repeat itself with China. China was welcomed in to the world, I mean Nixon visited China in 1972 and got this deal, which would come to be known as globalisation or supply chain management or outsourcing whatever, where China would manufacture things really cheaply for the American middle class, using labour brought in from the countryside to new factories, and then in 2001 China joined the World Trade Organization  

So in a sense China has been under America's thumb just like Japan was until very recently, until now when it's become a serious competitor and of course America will want to spike its economy... but maybe this time really will be different as the Peer competitors to America's economy and power are ganging up, the BRICS is becoming BRICS+, America's hegemony based on its reserve currency status is being challenged.

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