WHERE ARE THOSE OF GOOD FAITH?

01 July 2023

Over half of Ukrainians have lost on average three members of their family or friends dead in this conflict. Dead.

Ukraine will never in the distant forseeable future ever join neither NATO nor the EU.

The Ukrainian army is being finished off and the govt in Kiev will likely succumb to a popular vote and be replaced by one more willing to recognise the "rights" of its Russian citizenship and the benefits of neutrality.

Ukraine has lost a proportion of its population of ordinary Ukrainians, a lot of infrastructure, Crimea and Donbas. The longer the conflict persists, the less of these three things will remain. Ukraine may lose all access to the Black Sea and four more oblasts, while the west may join Poland and the Baltics.

Not only will neither side accept defeat in this proxy war, but imho imposing a defeat would certainly provoke a nuclear retaliation. This war is composed of a series of escalating steps with no currently visible "off ramp" and as there's no way to eliminate second-strike capability, that means gradual escalation will lead eventually to nuclear oblivion.

Surely there must be some adults who can take charge and lead the belligerents to a place for mutual understanding, facesaving and sensible talks?

Kennedy and Kruschev defused their threat of mutually assured destruction by removing nuclear missiles from Turkey and Cuba, so that neither superpower had nuclear weapons close to the other’s strategic command centres.

While it is startling to discover that there is no negotiation currently taking place between the two sides, at least Russia is communicating its nuclear strategy, intentions and capabilities. That could be the foundation for negotiation, a new security frame work for Europe (which includes 80% of the Russian population), China and America and if not multilateral disarmament, at least fresh progress towards the doctrine of no first use. 

Now, though, it is much more difficult to trust the governments in Kiev and Washington.  President Biden's intention to weaken Russia by funding and fueling the regime in Kiev has failed, sanctions have failed, Russia is proving to be much more capable than expected, and both Europe and the US are out of materiel, while Russia is prepared for a long war and increased the logistics of its conventional and nuclear weapons systems.

There are no Kennedys or Kruschevs on the scene today. The West's leadership should be, was, the world's leadership but has in my opinion very clearly failed, many argue its time has come. It proves itself not fit to manage this or any of the catastrophes it has created for the world. The alternative to overthrow of the existing American Order is reform of its rules and institutions. We want one rule of international law and one set of inclusive institutions accountable to its membership. While the UK is lost to America's neocon army, could France and Germany, or India and Turkey, open lines of communication?