THE WEST V. THE REST

22 July 2923

perestroika

pĕr″ĭ-stroi′kə

noun

The restructuring of the Soviet economy and bureaucracy that began in the mid 1980s.

A program of political and economic reform carried out in the Soviet Union in the 1980s under the leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev.

An economic policy adopted in the former Soviet Union; intended to increase automation and labor efficiency but it led eventually to the end of central planning in the Russian economy.

What died out in the 2000s was hopes for co-existence.

First, there was what Churchill called The Iron Curtain, splitting East from West, Western Capitalism from Eastern Communism and The Berlin Wall marked this cleavage, built in 1961.

In the 1960s, 70s, a new cleavage appeared.  It was realised that the East West split was between industrialised countries, but that was the Northern hemisphere. Now we see the South, living from an unequal exchange, their commodities for our finished goods, weak currencies against strong. These countries came out from the decolonisation movement and were called collectively The Third World. I invite you to check out the Dulles brothers for starters.

The important separation was West from East, it was a bipolar world, Washington v. Moscow, the cold war, cold becausethe bomb, many wars with always one protagonist aided by Washington, one by Moscow. Always. 

Then the Soviet Union disappeared, America achieved its Unipolar Moment, human rights, Liberalism, became universal rights, America sought to clone its values across the planet eg in Iraq, and Francis Fukiyama talked of "The End of History" (end of Ideology), because "democracies don't go to war with other", while much of the Third World grew to hate Western - ie American -  domination by its effects on them, while Europe wore lightly its American yoke.

So, the opportunity for peace and collective, collaborative, prosperity offered by Gorbachev, Perestroika, was betrayed, rather than helping Russia America advanced its pawns up to the walls of Moscow (almost) and we know the rest.

So we have quit the unipolar moment that seemed to run out about 2006 and we now are back in a multi-polar world, two protagonists America the China inThe Thucydides Trap, and a much weaker third: superpower Russia....and others, Brazil, India, the Middle East catching up ... and an Africa of 1.4 billion people in 54 states, whose turn by hokk or by crook will doubtless arrive centre stage one day.

The answer to the question - "And you think regime type isn't explanatory when it comes to which countries ally together, how they respond to aggression, etc.? Seems pretty implausible!" - is that it is not regime type - say Dictatorship, Oligarchy, Democracy - but more geography, demographics, history and economies that are the drivers, with a place for Great People and the part played by Chance.

While the West seems pretty coherent and unified, about the anything you can say about the global south or the bricks or the former communist world is that they are united in their opposition to the west and the hypocrisy of Western values.

Interesting to note that...

What is the most interesting part in this story is the missed opportunity offered by perestroika because the Thucydides Trap tells of when Sparta refused to accept the rising power that was Athens and preferred to go to war rather than lose its place, but as is so often the case in these Prisoner Dilemma tales it was a third party, Rome, that triumphed.

Also interesting to note that Great Britain went to war with Germany in what is called the first World War in order to prevent another rising power, Germany, from taking its place. And indeed Germany has never been an imperial power although it could have served as a relay between Great Britain and America.

CONCLUSION