Monday, 31 July 2023

NEW EUROPEANS - SWOT, GOALS, STRATEGY, POLICIES

31 July 2023

PROBLEMS / REQUIREMENTS - FOCUS ON DEINDUSTRIALISATION

De-industrialization is the loss of manufacturing jobs - Trump's rust belt from 80s/90s, Obama's Detroit after the 2008, now Germany's turn from sanctions cutting off cheap Russian energy and raw materials.

Not just sanctions, rising interest rates must also be a factor as Germany is an export-led economy and now its products are more expensive than the competition. Though demand for the Euro from EU trade partners makes the Euro cheaper than would be the Deutschmark. 

To sum up, troubles in manufacturing arise from rising costs: energy and raw materials import prices, interest rates and thirdly not forgetting the Green Deal - however you see the benefits, you have to agree Go Green is way costly.

ECONOMIC - KPIs

It's about the manufacture of finished goods: aviation, cars & parts; chemicals; electrical; machine tools. 

It's measured in GDP and employment. 

It's targets are relative - Germany's and the EU's loss is presumably America's and China's gain as the jobs must go somewhere, even in a recession?

ROOT CAUSES

It is looking like a near permanent loss and that's disastrous for Germany and so for the EU.

The EU is responsible for applying these sanctions, the ECB for monetary policy, and the EU again for the Energy Transition and for Industrial Policy.

Europe is allied to the US, but also aligned to. It has no goals of its own, little real independence. That's what being vassalised means and that's why the UK left - nobody wants to be a dogsbody.

WHAT TO DO?

To return to dynamic growth, the EU could set a goal of having the largest GDP of the three trading blocks by 2043. 

Just planning out the strategic consequences for political independence and for industrial policy would dynamise and invigorate Europe's economies. 

Free Movement of Labour should be delegated to a member-level decision and the UK could be invited to rejoin.

Change on this scale would require replacing the political elite with a younger class of aspiring - can this be done within the confines of late-stage "Liberal democracy"?

Sunday, 30 July 2023

AND IF AMERICA LOSES AGAINST RUSSIA?

30 July 2023

Some risks to pursuing war.

*Losing* is one risk most here this afternoon haven't thought about.

If America loses in Ukraine it's a foregone conclusion that it will lose in Taiwan. Losing against China means it has lost its global supremacy. Many would suggest cancelling the offensive and starting negotiations before it's too late. Means this month or next, if we are lucky.

America losing in Ukraine could be like Britain losing in Suez. At the time, other countries were buying gilts because gilts were the safest of homes for your money. There were four US dollars to the pound before Suez, today it's nearer one. In America's case, how would America continue to meet the interest payments on its gov bonds and avoid a run on the dollar and the RMB going convertible?

*Nuclear war* is another risk noone takes seriously.

It is plain that the West is upping the ante in Ukraine with delivery of ever more sophisticated weapons and technology, because America must not lose. What is to stop an eventual nuclear World War?

*Collapse in civil society* another risk.

We have all this propaganda aimed at getting the consent of our own people, to avoid a collapse in morale and gov.t authority. How to spin a settlement as a victory, pull ourselves together and avoid massive civil strife at home?

Friday, 28 July 2023

TRUMP HEADING TO PRISON FOR THE REST OF HIS NATURAL

28 July 2023

So the charges are piling up and Donald Trump is heading to prison for the rest of his life. I wonder why that could be.

You have to realise that this is supported by almost all members of Congress, both Senate and the House of Representatives and on both sides of the chambers.

What have they got in common? It looks like they all support these mad foreign wars, for reasons we can guess. Whereas before we had been thinking that America was run by the "military-industrial-congressional elite", now we can see that it's true, at least in the case of foreign policy.

And Trump has said - did say, way back in 2016 - that he will put a stop to these wars.

In fact, America today looks much like the Roman Empire of yesteryear. Or Britain under Elizabeth I and later, the one before this American Order. They are a military with a taxpayer funded government attached, who forage the world in search of new countries to plunder.

That is the nature of empires, but civilisations come and go, soon it will be our turn.

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

Thursday, 27 July 2023

THE FUTURE OF NATO

27 July 2023

Beyond NATO membership lie the fodder and the enemy.

Europe's turn comes next - it has already started paying the price economically, with the sanctions.
Do you think Western Europe will get involved militarily? Never mind the nuclear, it doesn't have the resources to tackle a resurgent Russia, certainly not now; maybe NATO's eastern fringe would like to have a go?

American put their own boots on the ground? Certainly not! Sure about the nuclear? Not sure.

Someone asked "One more non-negotiable demand for the ceasefire talks -- the Black Sea is to become a Nato lake". I'm sure that is a NATO objective, but would Russia show up to any such talks, or maybe this doesn't matter.

Here is a metaphor for this war. When a tier1 customer orders supplies of a complicated sub-assembly from a first line supplier, it first of all clarifies the requirements and checks the capabilities and capacities of its supplier, before placing the order. 

It doesn't stop there, during execution of the order, the customer purchasing department will make regular audit inspections of the supplier's production facilities.

All this to ensure the timeliness quality and cost of deliveries.

What planning did the Pentagon undertake in its preparations of this offensive with Ukraine's political and military leadership? Can it really only be now that the Pentagon and the National Scurity Council realise that this offensive is being defeated?

To all the evidence, America's planning was woefully insufficient, while Ukraine's execution is a costly failure.

The western powers need to renew our leadership and review the whole way of working, from the goals downwards.

Of course Russia is not without its problems. Take the Prigo affair. Prigo was deeply angered at his Military Headquarters for not supplying him with the munitions he needed to defend his men.

But then you have to understand that the Ministry wanted to keep the Bahkmout "meat grinder" trap open. 

The proof of this is that though Prigo took the town, he had received no instructions to build a defensive post capture line. Indeed if you look at a map, Bahkmout lies east of the defences that the high command had been building since October.

So this dispute was caused by a conflict of objectives and a refusal to accept the strategy of the Ministry. This is what insubordination means. The result is Prigo is in exile (so it is claimed), Ukraine is having another go at Arkiomsk the former Bahkmout and Russia is having to transfer troops from Malinka to defend its latest capture.




Monday, 24 July 2023

THE EFFECT OF TROLLS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

24 July 2023

Just a reflection on the Western Government trolls. 

Propaganda means the things which are to be propagated. It is about information and misinformation, concerning your strengths and weaknesses, what you present and what you hold back.

When you are the defender, you present yourself as strong, fearsome. When you are the attacker, you present yourself as weak, the more easily to slip under the radar, attack and kill.
Now, propaganda is not sloshing about negative or meaningless comments. Propaganda has a purpose: it serves the aims of the war.

What are those aims? For Ukraine, it is about land and borders, also ethnicities. For Russia, it is as stated at the start to “demilitarize” and “de-Nazify” the country.

My point is as always a simple and obvious one. When the trolls talk of Putin's wish to be a dictator, or to conquer new lands, or to re-form the Russian Empire or Soviet Union; when the trolls tell us that Russia is out of weapons, out of men, out of morale; what is the effect of their words?

Who is their audience? Surely not the Curious truth Seeker as their comments are hardly worth reading therefore Their audience must be themselves and those already suffering from russophobia.

All I want to say that it is very strange that in this war Russia does not generate any propaganda, as far as I can see There are open conferences and meetings with journalists that are recorded and no doubt questions are pre-prepared, but other than that Taas is not read by anyone and just generates basic facts.

And why might this be, why is Russia a black hole emitting no "information" to the West? Probably because the trolls here are doing the Russians' work for them. They are painting the Russians as essentially weak, ill-equipped, unprofessional and lacking fibre and morale. And Ukrainians read this and believe this.

That is exactly what the Russians want.

Not only that, but by their inane comments, the trolls present a picture of western publics as foolish and culpable. Imagine the shock and public reaction when confronted with reality. How many politicians and journalists will lose their jobs?

THE TROLLS ARE BATTING FOR THE OTHER SIDE








THE INDONESIAN SPICE ISLANDS

24 July 2023

"This Kashmiri dish is a very famous traditional dish. My friend's kashmiri wife cooked this for us in the 70s and the taste still lingers. We are going to cook this dish this week and thought of sharing it with you all. If u dont have  garam masala use your own garam masala. Zafrani garam masala is not available in Doha but i am getting it fm Kochi this week. But always manage with substitutes."

I do have garam masala. Perhaps not Zafrani, but Bali. 

The best spices come from The Spice Islands,. These are the dozens of tiny rain-soaked forests, luxuriant, verdoyant, volcanic islands on the equator pretty much, that make up the Indonesian archipelago of the Moluccas, aka the Maluku Islands if you prefer. 

Today, you can buy these spices in Dewata and Bintang supermarkets and the very best brand is Nox.


Until the 1700s, all the world's cloves, nutmeg, and mace (which is the powdered skin of the meg nut) came from here, though noone knew this as the Arab traders had kept this secret since the 4th century.

Then came Vasco da Gama on his famous voyage in 1497, round the Cape to India. The Portuguese proceeded to figure out where these Arab spices were coming from.

It is said that local people planted a clove tree each time a child was born, thus through the generations, through practise and custom, man (which includes women) and his destiny were wedded to the forest.

But the Dutch, who eventually took over the Moluccas in the seventeenth century, in order to limit supply and raise wholesale prices, tore down the forests except on Amboina and a few other islands, making cloves worth more than their weight in gold! ... But also making mad the native Polynesians. 

Slowly slowly, the spice was cultivated in other parts of the world - Brazil, the West Indies, Zanzibar ... and today you can buy cloves for your Sunday pork roast with crackling, and your apple pie & custard, in Sainsburys and Tesco.

The British when they colonised converted the people to Christianity, taught them English, introduced them to the latest hot playwright, left behind the rule of law and strict accounting principles. The Dutch by contrast left the people as ignorant as they were when they found them. You have only to compare Singapore or Malaysia with Indonesia....but the latter are fast catching up!

More than that, the Portuguese took great risks in order to discover the Spice Islands and along the way going round the Cape they got lost and found the new world, full of red Indians - Christopher Columbus sailed West across the Atlantic, in fourteen hundred and ninety-two Columbus sailed the ocean blue; and Magellan did the world's first luxury cruise round the entire globe, returning East across the Pacific.

THINGS ARE GETTING HOTTER

24 July 2023

"I am in Doha and getting roasted everyday. Temp was 46C yesterday with govt warning that it could go up to 55C and requesting citizens to avoid exposure to sun between 10 am and 3 pm, avoid keeping gas cylinders outside, avoid gas filling during day time, avoid filling gas full tank etc. First time I see these warnings.

Back home in Kochi it is raining non stop with temp in the 20s."

Yes, climate change is another catastrophe catching up on our past bad behaviour faster than was predicted. We pushed nature into a corner, it came roaring back once with covid, now we really reap the whirlwind with climate change. The world burns while the boys fiddle with their toys in Ukraine. 

How mad is that?

Bali we experienced a week of torrential rain, the water from heaven was falling in chords and sheets. Was it a de-regulated monsoon? Nobody knows, our clocks are still spinning in the hurricane.

Sunday, 23 July 2023

EX COLONIALIST, STILL SUPREMACIST

23 July 2023

I'd suggest we stop mixing up 

  The West with mixed up as The World.

Many Westerners are what's called Western-centric, navel gazers, if you will allow me to draw your attention to something the ego easily misses.

More and more - and thanks to the effects generated by The West on the long-suffering

  Global South 

(what after decolonisation in the 60s may be 70s was called 

  The Third World

), we live increasingly in a 

   The West v. The Rest 

world, it's called 

   Multi-polar 

and America doesn't like it, not one little bit.

Many complain, wrongly, about our colonial past, but we wouldn't want them to complain about our 

   Supremacist 

Present.

====

My own feeling having followed this situation in Ukraine for a long time now is that the West needs to be more honest: hnest with itself; honest with Ukraine too. It needs intellectual honesty and curiosity to discover the truth.

For example - and this is perhaps the worst - we have pushed Ukraine into a war which has destroyed its land and its people on the pretext that they would win, yet we have not provided sufficient or appropriate weapons or training, and they have lost two armies so far.

And the ultimate sadness of this is that it is not at all evident that the people of Ukraine wanted this war in the first place. Remember that they voted for zelinsky because he presented himself as a man of peace

WHO SAYS PUTIN IS A DICTATOR?

23 July 2023

https://youtu.be/u0A2WxgcsFM

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WESTERN AND CHINESE CULTURES

23 July 2023

What are the major differences between Chinese and Western cultures?

Having lived in Thailand for about 10 years now and in Europe for longer and the Middle East too, I think I’m well qualified to compare Chinese and Western cultures.

The biggest difference I discovered between the two, at a fundamental level, is their priorities. Chinese culture tends to prioritise the result or the end, whereas Western society prioritises the process or the means.

China is Outcome-Driven 

To put it very bluntly, China cares more about money than the West. The ideal outcome that every Chinese person strives for is to have more money. Yes, money is very very central in Chinese culture, which does not have another state religion, because it guarantees security for the family. They have no welfare state to fall back on, or it is rudimentary. Basically, the family takes care of you. And the memories of earlier difficult times are still fresh in the minds of the older generations and transmitted to the young.

This is why it is extremely important in Chinese culture to own your own house, car and iPhone. It shows people that you have wealth, you've arrived, you made it. How you obtain that wealth is not so important or up for discussion, as long as you reach that status or checkmark. Life is brutal and unforgiving. It is a culture where power and money are respected, gets you respect, money and power make influence and are more important than anything else. Not officially violence or military. This is a hard point for softer more genteel minds to understand at a deep level.

The Chinese are also more productive and industrious at the business level. There is less red tape and regulations to deal with, so they get through a lot of work, they produce a lot. Competition is really fierce because everyone is hustling to out-grow and out-compete and out-produce you. The Chinese are incredibly pragmatic and solution-oriented people.

As Chinese culture focuses on results, people tend to be more materially successful in life, though it can seem a purposeless or soulless unadorned existence to a Westerner. They are good at admin, at “obtaining” things like permits, quotas, at meeting deadlines or executing requirements.

The West is System-Driven

While China is an outcome-driven culture, the West is system-driven. The outcome is important, but what’s more important in Western culture is the process and the art, the path you follow and the signs you leave, to reach that outcome.

That is why in the West it’s generally taboo to ask someone how much they earn. What counts is what you do for a living, more than what you earn, at least in polite company.

In business, the Chinese focus on the three Es - economically cutting costs, increasing efficiencies and improving effectiveness. Westerners too of course, we taught them  especially Europeans, will care more about how that product is made and provide valuable experiences with that product.

To illustrate this let’s look at watches. The Quartz watch was perfected by the Japanese, an eastern culture similar to the Chinese. It was revolutionary because it was more precise than mechanical watches. A perfect example of focusing on the outcome. The desired outcome of the watch is to tell the time as accurately as possible at the lowest cost. Japan delivers. However, can a Casio G-Shock watch evoke the same kind of experience and emotion as a Rolex or a Vacheron Constantin can? Probably not. Even though they are less accurate, there’s something special about these mechanical watches in how they are made and the history that a Casio can never compete with.

In western culture feelings or experiences are important while they are suppressed in eastern cultures. Westerners will say things like “how are you feeling today?” “how do you feel about bla bla bla?” etc. This is rare in China. The west has a more literary and artistic output from the west.

Living in Asia I noticed how westerners are just wired differently from East Asians. They will have tons of small talk even at work, talking about the news or some difficulties they encountered on their way to work that day, trivial affairs that are never really the topic of conversation among the Chinese. For the Chinese, they made it to work on time, there’s nothing more to say on the matter.

Since western culture focuses on the how, it is an extremely legalistic or litigious society. In the west, a company must abide by certain regulations or codes. For example, they have to follow specific animal protection laws when making leather products. So generally it’s more costly to get things done in the west. That’s why so many businesses have moved their productions to China where the regulations are lax.

Westerners also tend to be more inquisitive. Science has traditionally been a forte of western culture. And science is really about taking things apart and learning how they work, learning the processes and the mechanics. While westerners are very good at discovering new ideas, the theoretical department, the Chinese are experts at commercializing those ideas and implementing them in a practical setting.

To sum up the global economy today: The west supplies the designs, China implements those designs. Be it iPhones or Shanghai skyscrapers.



Collectivism vs Individualism



The second biggest difference between China and the west is that the former is a collectivist or conformist or traditionalist society, while the latter is an individualistic society.

Confuscionism

China as a whole is much more unified and centralised than the west. The Chinese practice conformity to a truly remarkable extent, largely due to its Confucius past which exemplifies "filial piety" - the arrangement that children obey their parents while parents take care of their children, wives take care of their husbands, and subjects are reverential towards their leaders. We have respect and obedience feeding up and benign care and responsibility feeding down and taking care of our happiness and prosperity. 

To sum up, China practises government for the people and we government of and by the people. In a collective state it is the state that comes first and then the family and the individual whereas we think the opposite way so there is no tradition of democracy as we know it in China.

Conformity

You could be thousands of miles away in a different city in China and still expect to find the same kind of architecture, shops, signage, amenities, etc. There’s both the upside and downside to this. It can be a tad boring to see the same stuff everywhere you go, but it affords a certain level of convenience. This is why I think there is a stronger sense of national identity in China.

Individualism

The West is more individualistic and this is reflected in the political landscape. Europe is a fragmented continent. It is divided into many small countries which are in turn divided into many small regions and towns. And each of these regions and towns has its distinct culture, architecture, customs, and sometimes even languages.

For example, Scotland has its own separate unique identity that is different from England or Europe. And Scotland is a country of only about 5 million people. Many medium-sized cities in China have more people than the entire population of Scotland. The same goes for regions like Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall, Andalucia, Catalunya, Bavaria, Veneto, Flanders, etc.

CCP

Is it chopsticks that makes China so very different from the West? I don't think so. We in the West often ask how the people who live in China could put up with a dictatorship and do nothing about it - in my mind, that really is the most important question.

We in the Liberal West think that we are born with natural rights which mean that we can do pretty much as we like provided that we don't step on the rights of other people and if we do and the dispute can't be sorted out then that is why there is a government. 

So we are independent and we are individuals and we only accept to compromise on our rights in order that the government can protect us all. No one is above the rule of law and this includes the rulers and no group has absolute power - power is split between the assembly, composed of Representatives of the people who make the law, the executive who govern and implement change desired by the people, and the judiciary who deal with infringements. The role of the government extends to protecting human rights, assuring freedom of speech and respecting private property.

Compare this with China which had been continuously ruled by and for the Han people since, some say, 2000 BC and it was only in 1911 that the Qing dynasty fell apart and that was because the people realised that they were unable to protect the country from foreigners. 

So for thousands of years the Chinese people had lived under imperial rule and were also dominated by this traditionalist Confucian thinking. Both are hierarchical, top-down ways of thinking and organising.

Humiliation

The Chinese have a deep in their collective psych the notion that Western colonialism and imperialism subjected them to a hundred years of humiliation this started with the opium wars and the Treaty of Nanking in the middle of the 19th century, and ran through to the collapse of the Qing dynasty, after which an attempt was made at creating a republic in 1912 and a constitutional monarchy in 1916. Both failed.

But what China and Chinese people do have is a very nationalist view of China's place in the world and to some extent a resentment at the humiliation they were put through by the West.

CCP

By the time the second world war came, China had no proper system of government to protect itself. But there were two weak parties rivaling each other to take charge the GND and the CCP the Kaoming Tung and the Chinese Communist Party.

 It was almost an accident of history that the CCP came to power in 1949. The CCP was a Marxist-Leninist party and based its philosophy and its organization on Russia's communist set up the CCP believes that the CCP mission is to create a classless egalitarian society, to abolish private property.

In 1949 Mao Tse-tung defeated Chiang Kai Chek and China fell into the hands of the communist party after which foreigners were forced to leave.

https://youtu.be/6StPC4atEVg?si=uTtqRc66HovsfdtV

Thanks for reading






THIS UTTERLY FOOLISH ADVENTURE IN FOREIGN POLICY

23 July 2023

I am waiting for the book to come out, not on the military or political history of the war, but on the role played by our media in keeping us in the dark for so long, the propaganda war of Western gov.ts against their own peoples, the Why? and the How?. Could Noam Chomsky write a farewell jubilatory apocryphal "Manufacture of Consent 2.0"?

You can only fool people for so long. Now, newspapers in the West are starting to publish perspectives on defeat, though it has to be said I am waiting for the blame-articles to start rolling off the presses of this august broadsheet. "Oh, it was the minefields what done for us" will not be enough - why ever did things come to this pretty pass in the first place?

This war looks like it is closing the parenthesis on Western supremacy, Why in the world did we so mismanage and squander our numerous advantages as to get into this mess?

We suffer here and now from the disastrous consequences of these steps to advance Nato and contain Russia, will we seek war with China in the same way? What world are we bequething to our children?

Why has Europe allowed itself to become a mere vassal of America and its violent, uncompromising and opaque foreign policy establishment?

Where was The Voice of the People? What can we do to repair our societies from growing internal conflicts and still remain free?

Good luck everybody sorting out your lives after this utterly foolish adventure in foreign policy.

Saturday, 22 July 2023

THE WEST V. THE REST

22 July 2923

perestroika
pĕr″ĭ-stroi′kə
noun
The restructuring of the Soviet economy and bureaucracy that began in the mid 1980s.
A program of political and economic reform carried out in the Soviet Union in the 1980s under the leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev.
An economic policy adopted in the former Soviet Union; intended to increase automation and labor efficiency but it led eventually to the end of central planning in the Russian economy.

What died out in the 2000s was hopes for co-existence.


First, there was what Churchill called The Iron Curtain, splitting East from West, Western Capitalism from Eastern Communism and The Berlin Wall marked this cleavage, built in 1961.


In the 1960s, 70s, a new cleavage appeared.  It was realised that the East West split was between industrialised countries, but that was the Northern hemisphere. Now we see the South, living from an unequal exchange, their commodities for our finished goods, weak currencies against strong. These countries came out from the decolonisation movement and were called collectively The Third World. I invite you to check out the Dulles brothers for starters.


The important separation was West from East, it was a bipolar world, Washington v. Moscow, the cold war, cold becausethe bomb, many wars with always one protagonist aided by Washington, one by Moscow. Always. 


Then the Soviet Union disappeared, America achieved its Unipolar Moment, human rights, Liberalism, became universal rights, America sought to clone its values across the planet eg in Iraq, and Francis Fukiyama talked of "The End of History" (end of Ideology), because "democracies don't go to war with other", while much of the Third World grew to hate Western - ie American -  domination by its effects on them, while Europe wore lightly its American yoke.


So, the opportunity for peace and collective, collaborative, prosperity offered by Gorbachev, Perestroika, was betrayed, rather than helping Russia America advanced its pawns up to the walls of Moscow (almost) and we know the rest.


So we have quit the unipolar moment that seemed to run out about 2006 and we now are back in a multi-polar world, two protagonists America the China inThe Thucydides Trap, and a much weaker third: superpower Russia....and others, Brazil, India, the Middle East catching up ... and an Africa of 1.4 billion people in 54 states, whose turn by hokk or by crook will doubtless arrive centre stage one day.


The answer to the question - "And you think regime type isn't explanatory when it comes to which countries ally together, how they respond to aggression, etc.? Seems pretty implausible!" - is that it is not regime type - say Dictatorship, Oligarchy, Democracy - but more geography, demographics, history and economies that are the drivers, with a place for Great People and the part played by Chance.


While the West seems pretty coherent and unified, about the anything you can say about the global south or the bricks or the former communist world is that they are united in their opposition to the west and the hypocrisy of Western values.

Interesting to note that...

What is the most interesting part in this story is the missed opportunity offered by perestroika because the Thucydides Trap tells of when Sparta refused to accept the rising power that was Athens and preferred to go to war rather than lose its place, but as is so often the case in these Prisoner Dilemma tales it was a third party, Rome, that triumphed.

Also interesting to note that Great Britain went to war with Germany in what is called the first World War in order to prevent another rising power, Germany, from taking its place. And indeed Germany has never been an imperial power although it could have served as a relay between Great Britain and America.

CONCLUSION


Friday, 21 July 2023

VALUE INVESTING WITH ASWATH DAMODARAN

21 July 2023

Someone value investors listen to Aswath Damodaran.
A good interview:
https://youtu.be/mlEiGnCLL80

His blog:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/?m=1

About him, if you are still interested!
https://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878

Monday, 17 July 2023

WHERE IN THE WAR ARE WE HEADING

17 July 2023

Defeat, chaos and submission

ORIGINS

America provoked this war through Nato expansion, colour revolutions, refusal of dialogue and its openly-declared intent to weaken Russia (before pivoting to China incidentally!) and more specifically the invitation to Ukraine in 2008 to join Nato. America has contained and cornered Russia to a point where Russia feels its security and very existence is so compromised it must respond. Russia and many foreign policy analysts did give notice down the years that Ukraine was the brightest of Russia's red lines, but all attempts at conflict resolution were ignored.

The history of this war, as described in previous articles, is strewn with American provocations and breaches of faith. 1990 "not one inch". 2004 Maidan. 2008 Budapest. 2014 Coup. 2015 Donbas, Crimea and Minsk. 2021 Final arming of Ukraine. 24 February 2022 Russian incursion. 28 March 2022 Istanbul. April 2022 Escalation and attrition. July 2023 Vilnius Ukraine's admission request rejected.

DEFEAT IS INADMISSABLE

All Russia's warnings were ignored, America thought it knew better, with the result that now we are engaged in a costly war that threatens Russia's existence and America's global supremacy. 

This is a war where goals, ways (strategies) and means (men, methods, machines, munitions) are completely at opposites. Neither side can admit defeat; but neither is negotiation possible.

TERRITORY AND NEUTRALITY

Neither side can can make concessions in its claim to strategically important Crimea (the Black Sea and Svastopol), the four oblasts and likely four more including Odesa and possibly Transnistria. 

Neither side can concede on Nato membership as Ukraine is either in or it isn't in.

STRATEGIES

America in its strategy of escalation continues to supply technology and ever more deadly weapons systems on a course that would lead inexorably and certainly to nuclear war, that is for sure.

While Russia in its strategy of attrition and using its much superior means will wipe out the Ukrainian army, the regime in Kiev, and leave Ukraine a smouldering wreck with no two stones left one standing on top of the other.

No DMZ or cold war seems possible, leaving the only outcome possible to be military defeat.

CONSEQUENCES

If the point of the war was to complete Russian encirclement, it has failed as Ukraine will never join Nato. This was well trailored going back to 2008  There is also no way Crimea will be recovered, nor the Donbas, and the longer the war persists, the less of Ukraine will exist.

So we can say wirh confidence that the war was foolish, pointless and avoidable; it has resulted in the destructionof Ukraine and shortly of the Zelinsky regime; and all this chaos, loss of life and destruction was provoked by America.

We can also conclude that, given these are nuclear armed superpowers and Russian superiority on the battlefield, the most probable outcome is total defeat for Ukraine and an eventual American pullback ("cut and run" as in previous foreign policy adventures from Vietnam to Afghanistan, soon Syria, that we all know only too well), with the deaths and mutilations of hundreds of thousands of Ukraine's citizens, Nato's being shown up as a paper tiger and the world economy and politics split in two.

What will Ukraine's neighbours make of this debacle? Will for example Poland call on its Polish Lithuanian Ukrainian Pact to seize Western Ukraine? Wil Transnistria separate legally from Moldova and join S W Russia?

DEFEAT, CHAOS AND SUBMISSION

America, instead of destroying or weakening Russia, will have driven Russia into the arms of its true rival and Asian-region competitor: China. It will have, entirely through its own stupidity, self-destructed, but not before leaving Europe in its worse mess and dependency since the creation of the EU.

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

How much easier would it be for Europe to slowly withdraw from this war, seek peace with Russia based on trade and a New Security Architecture, renew its leaderships and start to build up its own independence.

Sunday, 16 July 2023

BALI CULTURE

16 July 2023

The lady first on the left is my landlady. She looks younger than she is, a lot younger, maybe it's the yoga, she is very busy but always hugely relaxed and friendly. ✓


Naben (a Balinese cremation ceremony).  This was remembering my landlady's grandfather, back in her village. Again, many cremated at the same time, they pool their money to reduce costs.



Different colours for the different families, a family cremating its loved one.


I have to say that Indonesians enjoy a unique dress sense, with wonderfully clashing patterns and quite startlingly contrasting colours.


The women are built with big firm breasts and buttocks; which compares with women from Siam central Thailand who enjoy slimmer figures.

Bali is Hindu, but a sizeable Muslim population too. I can definitely say that Islam has a focus on simplicity and the next world, compared with this rich Hindu culture of stories, customs, rituals, art and sculptures, and a highly distinctive architecture.


Saturday, 15 July 2023

A REALISTIC START TO THE END GAME IN UKRAINE

16 July 2023

Let us recall the issues that prevent a peaceful resolutuon. There are two: territory - both sides cannot have Crime; neutrality - Ukrain wants what it thinks is the security of Nato membership, Russia insists on neutrality.

The regimes in Kiev and Washington won't accept peace until Russia is defeated, which it never will be, on pain of nuclear war. If Ukraine were ever to join Nato with its regime, it would rag Russia some more over lost territiry until Russia had to step in again, even if America had given up on weakening Russia. This would trigger Art.5 and there would be direct confrontation betwwen superpowers which would quickly escalate to nuclear, blowing the top off our home.

Also worth pointing out that Nato is currently a paper tiger, something not widely believed, with at a minimum five years to assemble, train and supply an army strong enough to assure Europe's survival in a conventional war. Furthermore, Nato has not fought a war since Serbia in 1999.

It is really only at that point - a balance of power restored - that The West would be in a position to negotiate a lasting peace, meaning a new security architecture. The alternative is a cold war where what is left of  Ukraine is contained by Russia.

Personally, I have no confidence in our existing institutions and their immature, mediocre, greedy leaderships. You can see that because of focusing on China, America is wrapped up in Ukraine and it has driven Russia into the arms of China. 

I have greater ideals than to be a vassal state of a foolish America and its losing foreign policy elite. The 'neocons' are dedicated to assuring America's perpetual unchallenged hegemony through military means and sanctions and that is not achievanle any more in this tripolar world.

Change comes from within, let's make that positive for Europe.

TWO SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE

14 July 2023

END GAMES

Looking back on this war or special military operation, as the Russians like to call it, there are a couple of points that stand out as really quite surprising.

Although a government's first priority is the security of its land and its people, this cannot be taken at the expense of its neighbours, instead "balance of power" arrangements normally prevail. Russia saw the threat by NATO to move into Ukraine, rightly or wrongly, as a threat to its security and given the history of invasions from the West this is understandable, at least that was Russia's perception and in the absence of dialogue perceptions count more than reality. Russia made it perfectly clear from many many years back that there is no way it could ever accept Ukraine's membership of NATO. This was what this current proxy war, as some like to see it, was all about and it's now clear, let's face it, from the Vilnius summit that NATO accepts this point, that Ukraine cannot become a member.

So what was the point of the war, how did we ever get into an armed conflict? And why is the war still ongoing instead of efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and peace agreement?

Another most surprising point that has emerged recently is that Russia is fully cognisant of Ukraine's need for security, just as it is for its own. This is clear from the negotiations that took place in Istanbul in March and April last year. Ukraine's security needs were detailed and detailed in a lot of detail and both sides signed or at least initialed what was already quite a comprehensive document. What NATO is now offering Ukraine in terms of security at Vilnius is a vetsion far cut down from the offer that Russia made last year. So again we can ask what has been the point of all this bloodshed and expense and real lasting damage to the interests of both sides in Europe?

What is preventing Ukraine from going back to that negotiating table in Istanbul and attempting to revive the agreement, such as it was, other than its own pride and the certain knowledge that what was on offer then would not resemble what Russia would be prepared to offer today?

And the snswer must be the present administration in Washington, with its strong neocon biais. Achange of policy would at least require changes replacing these people. Furthermore, if and when the Ukrainian offensive fails, next month or September, and Russia strikes in an offensive of its own, how will the Democratic party administration react? Particulary considering the effect of failure on their election chances in November 2024? 

So either America takes matters into its own hands and marches in if not its own troops then troops from Poland and Romania or else the President renews his national security staff and ushers in a new strategy which would acknowledge this setback and deal with it through negotiation.

Here is an informative and interesting Scott Ritter talking about endgames as a military man.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Qglxww40pTs?feature=share

Friday, 14 July 2023

is.gd/3H0KKJ

About three weeks ago I was traveling through the brousse of a third-world country and stooped for lunch at a roadside 'warung'. I found myself enjoying a leg of grain-fed roast chicken, served up in all its bone and fibre, when a tooth got a superficial crack.

The tooth had been root-canalled back in Europe, the root was ok not cracked.  and a local dentist did a crown and all is now fine after treatment identical to any you'd get in the UK.

Except it wasn't. The root canal cost £1,000 in Ealing and a crown would have cost the same. But here I paid £250.

The dentist txted me to see if it was ok and tomorrow I go for a checkup: 100,000 rupiah (that's £5).

Wednesday, 12 July 2023

LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE RULES OK

21 April 2024 - UPDATE

THREE REASONS TO INVEST IN THE LSE

Investing in the London Stock Exchange (LSE) can be attractive for several reasons, particularly for those looking to diversify their portfolio or tap into unique investment opportunities Consider That Prices of companies on the LSE are amongst the cheapest in the world for Industry and sector. Here are three compelling reasons to consider investing in the LSE:

1. Diverse Range of Companies

The LSE hosts a diverse array of companies from various sectors, including financial services, mining, oil and gas, and consumer goods, among others. This diversity allows investors to spread their risk across different industries and tap into different economic cycles. Moreover, the LSE is known for its large number of international listings, offering exposure to global markets, particularly in emerging economies like Africa and Asia, where many companies listed on the LSE operate.

2. Strong Regulatory Framework

The UK boasts one of the world's strongest regulatory frameworks, underpinned by a history of financial stability and governance standards. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) ensure that the market operates in a transparent and fair manner. This regulatory environment helps protect investors and adds a level of security to investments made in the LSE, making it a safe harbor particularly in times of global financial uncertainty.

3. Access to Liquidity and Capital Growth Opportunities

The LSE is one of the world’s oldest and largest stock exchanges, offering high liquidity which makes it easier for investors to enter and exit positions. This liquidity, combined with the exchange’s link to dynamic sectors such as fintech, green energy, and biotechnology, provides strong capital growth opportunities. The presence of both well-established blue-chip companies and smaller enterprises poised for growth offers a balanced mix for growth and value investing.

These factors make the LSE an attractive option for investors seeking a robust investment platform that offers both security and opportunities for substantial growth in a globally respected market environment.

SUMMARY

Stephen Anness's Analysis of UK Value Traps

1. Overview of Stephen Anness's Investment Shift**

Stephen Anness, managing Invesco Select Trust’s global equity income portfolio, has expressed concerns over the persistent stagnation in certain sectors of the UK's FTSE 100 index. His decision to transition from focusing on UK equities to global equities in 2009 was influenced by the lacklustre performance of stocks in ex-growth sectors such as oil, healthcare, and telecoms. Anness observed that these sectors, despite their significant presence in the FTSE 100, have not seen meaningful share price growth over the last two decades, excluding dividends.

2. The Misleading Appeal of the UK Market**

Anness argues that the attractive price-earnings ratio and dividend yield of the UK market can be misleading. The stocks, while cheap, often fall into what he describes as "value trap" territory—stocks that are low priced for substantial reasons and show little prospect of appreciation. He notes that many of these stocks are priced similarly to their values at the start of his career over twenty years ago, underscoring their stagnant nature despite paying decent dividends in some cases.

3. The Composition Issue within the FTSE**

The underperformance of the FTSE is attributed not to a general aversion to the UK market but to the composition of the index itself, which is heavily weighted towards these ex-growth sectors. This structural issue within the FTSE makes it challenging for investors to realise significant gains from these stocks, as they are often entrenched in industries that struggle to generate robust earnings and free cash flow growth.

4. Anness's Global Investment Strategy**

In contrast to his view on the UK market, Anness has adopted a more optimistic stance towards global markets, where he identifies companies with the potential for growth and value creation. He specifically highlights opportunities in markets like Asia and the US, beyond the well-known large-cap companies. Anness looks for firms with strong competitive advantages, excellent management teams, and a clear focus on capital allocation and shareholder value. These attributes, he believes, are essential for sustainable growth and favourable returns.

5. Conclusion and Strategic Outlook**

Stephen Anness’s critique of the UK market as filled with value traps reflects a broader strategic preference for investing in markets and companies where growth potential is backed by strong fundamentals. His approach underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term price metrics to assess the long-term viability and growth prospects of investments.

**Glossary of Terms**

- *FTSE 100*: The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalisation.
- *Ex-growth sectors*: Industries that are characterised by slow or no growth in terms of revenue or market expansion.
- *Value traps*: Stocks that appear to be cheap because they are trading at low valuation metrics but are cheap for reasons that hinder their potential for appreciation.

**Further Reading**

For more insights into global investment strategies and understanding value traps:
- [Investopedia: Value Traps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp)
- [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com) for ongoing analysis of global equity markets.

This detailed overview offers insights into Stephen Anness’s investment philosophy and the reasons behind his cautious stance on UK equities, illustrating the importance of strategic asset selection in achieving long-term investment success.

ARTICLE

Invesco’s Anness: UK has too many value traps for a global investor like me
The FTSE 100 is dominated by ex-growth oil, healthcare and telecom stocks whose share prices have essentially gone nowhere in the past 20 years, says Invesco’s Stephen Anness.

BY
CITYWIRE

Stephen Anness, manager of Invesco Select Trust’s global equity income portfolio (IVPG), is pleased that he switched from UK to global equities in 2009. He says too many companies in the UK’s FTSE 100 index are in ex-growth sectors such as oil, healthcare and telecoms. Their share prices, excluding dividends, have essentially gone nowhere during his career, which is why he prefers to take a worldwide search for businesses that can invest for the future and support rising dividends.


So, it’s not a play on the UK economy, but the UK market is a good place to find cheap, good-quality stocks. Is it?

Stephen Anness:

I started 22 years ago on the UK desk, as I mentioned. I moved to global about ten years ago. I would say that in the UK, there are some very cheap stocks, but as in many markets around the world, often those stocks are cheap for a reason. A lot of those companies are broadly the same share price as when I started my career two-and-a-bit decades ago. Some of them have paid a decent dividend on the way, but many of them lack the characteristics that I’ve talked about in terms of Broadcom or 3i. Businesses that are able to grow, reinvest and pay a growing dividend. So, I think in some of the sectors that are quite dominant in the UK, some commodity sectors. Some large-cap healthcare, telcos for instance. They’re hard industries to actually really generate decent levels of earnings and free cash flow growth out of. 

So yes, there are some assets in the UK market that I think are appealing and we’ve touched on some of them, but I do think that the notion of looking at the UK and saying the headline PE [price-earnings ratio] of the UK market and the dividend yield of the UK market look appealing in the context of wider markets is a bit misleading. I do think some of those companies and significant index weights, some of those are most definitely what I would describe in value trap territory. They’re definitely cheap, but I think they’re cheap for a reason and you will probably end up with a broadly similar share price five years from now.

Gavin Lumsden:

So, the poor performance of the FTSE isn’t because investors are shying away from the UK market?

Stephen Anness:

I think it’s a constituent issue of what’s in the market, yes.

Gavin Lumsden:

Have you been surprised there hasn’t been more tactical allocation? I was thinking you were keener on the UK, but you’re not surprised that there hasn’t been more tactical allocation on the idea of the UK being cheap.

Stephen Anness:

No. If you look at it in the way I look at it, no.  I think it’s rational, absolutely. I do think other markets, some of the US are getting extended and things. I’m trying to find 40 to 45 companies globally, out of thousands that we can look at. There are always interesting things going on. There are some great companies in Asia. There are some interesting companies in Japan. That has certain nuances as well. In America, once you move beyond some of the very large-cap, highly talked about companies, there are some brilliant companies slightly further down the market-cap spectrum. Slightly amusingly, they’re often described as mid-cap, but they can often be $25bn companies. Some of them are amazing with brilliant competitive advantages, excellent management teams and laser sharp focus on capital allocation and shareholder value creation. Those are the kinds of companies that we’re looking for.



BRITISH STOCK MARKETS CHEAPEST IN THE WORLD

11 July 2023

That's a great newspaper article. What is it telling us?

It's about divi stocks and is saying, 
- never mind the loss of capital, look at the income; 
- but also, this has gone far enough, share prices surely can't go any lower; 
- conclusion: dive in now to have your cake (the pie can only get bigger from hereonin) and eat it (as share prices rise that yield-to-cost is going to get more and more delicious)!

There are lots of moves underway to sell the idea that British companies are very undervalued compared with....compared with any other stock exchange, anywhere in the world that you care to look at.

Growth stocks do give better returns over the long run, but economies are cyclical and defensive divi stocks would outperform growth in a recession, normally...

COMPARING S M AND LONG TERM RETURNS ON THE LSE WITH OTHER STOCK MARKETS

Comparison of Short, Medium, and Long-Term Returns on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) versus Other Stock Markets

Investing on the LSE and other global stock exchanges can yield different returns depending on the time frame and the type of return (total shareholder return or TSR, split into income from dividends and capital appreciation). Here's how these differ for short-term, medium-term, and long-term investment horizons:

1. Short-Term Returns (up to 1 year)**

   - LSE**: 

Short-term returns on the LSE can be volatile, reflecting global economic conditions, currency fluctuations due to Brexit implications, and domestic market dynamics. The income component from dividends might be relatively stable, but capital appreciation can vary significantly.

   - Other Markets 

(e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ)**: U.S. markets, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ, often show higher short-term capital appreciation due to the rapid growth of technology stocks, albeit with higher volatility. The income return, typically from dividends, is generally lower than that of the LSE, as many high-growth U.S. companies reinvest profits rather than distribute them.

 2. Medium-Term Returns (1 to 5 years)**

   - LSE**: 

The medium-term returns on the LSE can be influenced by the UK's political and economic adjustments to post-Brexit conditions. The market may provide modest capital growth but offers robust dividend yields, particularly from sectors like utilities and consumer goods, which traditionally focus on high dividend payouts.

   - Other Markets

(e.g., DAX, Nikkei 225)**: 

European markets like the DAX may exhibit similar capital appreciation to the LSE but often with slightly lower dividend yields. Japan's Nikkei 225 might offer lower income returns but potential for substantial capital appreciation if Japan's economic policies stimulate growth.

3. Long-Term Returns (over 5 years)**

   - LSE**: 

Over the long term, the LSE has provided stable income returns through dividends, which is appealing to income-focused investors. Capital appreciation is generally lower compared to U.S. markets but consistent, particularly in traditional industries such as finance and oil and gas.

   - Other Markets

 (e.g., S&P 500, Emerging Markets)**: The S&P 500 has historically offered high long-term capital appreciation with moderate income returns, driven by strong performance in sectors like technology and healthcare. Emerging markets are more variable but can offer high growth potential in both capital appreciation and income, albeit at higher risk levels.

### Key Differences in TSR Components

- Income (Dividends)**: 

The LSE is often favoured for its higher dividend yield compared to many other markets, making it attractive for income-seeking investors. This is partly due to the presence of mature, large-cap companies in sectors like oil, gas, and financial services that traditionally pay higher dividends.
  
- Capital Appreciation**: 

U.S. markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500, typically outperform the LSE in terms of capital appreciation, driven by the growth in technology and biotech sectors. The LSE's capital growth is often more subdued, reflecting the mature nature of many of its listed companies and economic growth rates in the UK and Europe.

Conclusion

When choosing between the LSE and other global markets, investors should consider their risk tolerance, investment horizon, and the desired balance between income and capital growth. The LSE may be more suitable for those seeking stable, income-driven returns, while other markets, like the U.S. and emerging markets, might be better for those seeking higher capital growth. Each market has its characteristics and potential benefits, depending on individual investment strategies and economic cycles.

Tuesday, 11 July 2023

WAR IN EUROPE OR A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

11 July 2023

Finland and Sweden joining NATO is good news for investors in American arms manufacturers and NATO, bad news for Finland and Sweden's taxpayers, and otherwise seems to be unnecessary unless you think Russia is planning to zip up its Western frontier this side of Eastern Europe ie back to pre 1991.

Doubtless the Americans helped along the collapse of the Soviet Union in many ways, not least by promising Gorbachez and Yeltsin it would not expand NATO "one inch East". But the Soviet Union was destined to collapse from the get-go as those in the Politburo truly and sincerely believed in Communism - collective ownership by the state and a fully planned economy - was the next step in human evolution. It wasn't and the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its own inefficiencies and attempt to reshape human nature.

Does Putin nonetheless want to recreate the empire of the Czar or the Soviet Union? My reading is that he is not interested in taking control of the fringe former Soviet states but rather he is interested in securing Russia's Western borders against further Western attack by neutralising in some way those countries where NATO wants to, or has, lodged its nuclear weapons.

Some of Putin's utterances that may help us understand his mind:

"We have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, conducted in the 18th, 19th and 20th Centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position"

"If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this."

“The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

“Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.”

This makes him a nationalist in the geographic sense of the Russian Federation, although he supports Russian ethnic minorities living outside Russia, in former Novorossiya for instance.

Personally, I am a realist who believes that the peace is kept by a balance of power; and thus someone who thinks that peace and security in Europe can be obtained by our negotiating a fresh security architecture with Russia, for Europe, rather than conducting a war which the West unfortunately cannot win. 

Defeat of the West in Ukraine was - and still is for many - once unimaginable, in spite of all the historic precedents from Vietnam onwards. This is because Nationalism, or the fight for survival, is the strongest force in politics. Should either side have to face defeat, ie its very existence or world primacy is threatened, there would be consequences that today for most people are unimaginable.

We in the West can either accept that risk of nuclear war, or we can refuse to take that risk and instead step back and negotiate a new security architecture. The benefits that would flow to Europe and Eurasia in almost all domains of human endeavour would be absolutely immense.

Sunday, 9 July 2023

THE WAR TO END ALL WARS CAN STILL BE AVOIDED

10 July 2023

While the Nasties are in power in Kiev, Ukraine cannot join NATO. This is because they will continue to rag Russia for Crimea and the Donbas, Russia will respond, then the regime in Kiev will call in NATO under art.5.


Before you know it, NATO - which means America - will be at war with Russia. It won't be a proxy war anymore, it'll be WW3 (like Biden said at the start), it'll be two superpowers fighting each other in Ukraine and we know how that will end.

So that's why Ukraine cannot join NATO. 


Now, if Ukraine committed in its Constitution to neutrality - meaning no nuclear weapons, army limited to say 85,000, controls on weapons, presence of NATO and Russian peacekeepers on their soil. There must be a verifiable ceasefire to allow this resolution to be discussed and agreed.


It is worth pointing out that Russia has no objection to Ukraine joining the EU. On the contrary, Putin is on record as saying Russia would help.


So this all begs the big question that some asked at the start : what ever was the point of this war? 


A map shows us that there are gaps in Russia's natural Western frontier with the rest of Europe. And history teaches that Russia has been invaded over 50 times through these holes (there are nine of them) in its thousand year history. So everyone could understand Russia's security concerns in the face of the advances by Western forces towards Moscow. That's Russia's perception.


That is why, in the light of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, to name the major disasters, it was easy to predict, back at the start of this "military operation", that it would end in another disaster for the allies, and perhaps the last for America, if not the world.

Saturday, 8 July 2023

PLAYING DIRTY

8 July 2023


It's ok to want to be number one, but it's how you get there, it's your values, that matter.

Power is a result of your population, your people with their skills and ambitions; and with the wealth base that you have built up which includes your infrastructure, your technology, your knowledge.

In its race to be number one America has cheated. It's not really the best man that is winning, because it has doped its economy unnaturally with debt (that will never be repaid incidentally, not even at par) and it has favoured force over fair trade and negotiation, both an abuse of power.

It's difficult to demonstrate what a corrupt and undemocratic country America has become under the neocon establishment, with its military-industrial-congressional complex, but that's what it is. The people are continuously misled by the propaganda and distractions, but will sometime say they've had enough.

Cluster bombs, carpet bombing, napalm...no surprises from this depraved establishment.

Friday, 7 July 2023

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT II

7 July 2023

I visited S Africa not so long ago, twice in fact. I traveled along the Garden Route from Cape Town to Durban, and then up the middlt to Jo'burg. So to get an idea of the UK economy, as lived by ordinary people, let's compare the two countries.

The UK is a poor country, compared with the top EU countries, but it has a strong currency and an enormous wealth of soft power and influence on the world stage.

Now of course there are poor neighbourhoods in any country. But the real surprise is not that these neighbourhoods exist, but that they make up the majority of UK neighbourhoods - at least 80% of the neighbourhoods in every city UK city I know look similar to this.




Pick any UK city and drop a street view pin randomly anywhere in the suburbs and this is what you'll see.

But do the same in Denmark or Netherlands and you'll not to see any of this.

Take a look at the cost of living, or inflation currently 8.7%. Salaries in the UK may be 50–100% higher than in South Africa , but electricity costs are rhree to four times higher.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=South+Africa

The average UK wage is £31k, meaning you take home £2,000 a month. How far would that go in London today?

You could not afford a flat - the rent in London for a 60 sqm flat with irange curtains is £1,500 and bills and council tax would be a further £250 per month. (All figures averaged and approximative.)

Or consider car insurance in the UK. Even with many years driving experience, minimal claims record, I spoke to insurance salesmen and the cheapest car insurance I found was  £2200 per year.

The UK may have a strong currency and seems a wealthy country by GDP, but for ordinary people, things are pretty expensive and this leaves in people in the UK poor compared with their life for their European neighbours. Here is a map showing areas of relative poverty in Europe.


The UK is certainly a great place to live for many reasons rhat we will consider, below, and we are better off here than South Africa, but in terms of wealth, the comparison with S A shows we are not as better off as we might like to think.

The UK is a better place to live than the Netherlands or Germany or even Switzerland, maybe not France or Spain, for the warmth of its people, the beauty of its landscapes, the richness of its culture and history, and the qualities of its language, communications and entertainment. 

Britain is also a major finance centre, the industrial revolution started here, it has universities in the world's top ten, 

BRITAIN'S NUMBER ONE ISSUE IS ITS POVERTY

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/22/britain-is-now-a-poor-nation-this-is-our-number-one-issue/

It is a great article, and the causes of our relative poverty are given as currency debasement, expensive housing, inefficient NHS, poor productivity, govt admin and tax inefficiencies, naively overgenerous welfare and pension provision, mediocre politicians chasing the election lure

While the readers in their comments all blame the men who won't work

Draft to be completed. .....

WHAT WILL ZELINSKY DO WHEN HE SEES THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING FOR HIM?

7 July 2023

https://youtu.be/EKAsY3QczIA

What will Zelinsky and The West do when the Ykrainian offensive patently fails after running out of army, machines and munitions?

What will Zelinsky and The West do when they see Russia's million-man-army heading their way to the Polish border?

When Zelinsky sees the Russians coming, he'll scurry to the Polish for protection and ask for Kiev to be incorporated back into Poland. Will the Russians accept this? Of course not, they want to protect their border with political Europe.

Meanwhile, the Russians will take the next four oblasts up to the Dnieper river, which includes Odessa. This is half the pre-2014 Ukraine.

True, this will avoid nuclear conflict, which otherwise is certain, but without negotiations this will leave a running sore dragging on Europe's future (most Russians live in geographic Europe: "Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic".).

Instead of this sink hole, is it too late to have negotiations around the security situation in Europe? Probably: for example, since joining NATO, silly Finland is building a 1,340 km long fence through mostly uninhabited taiga forests and will now be buying expensive American arms to defend itself against an imaginary enemy.

And from these negotiations could come a rapprochement between Germany and Russia, saving the European economy from disastrous recession, and in a generation or two, a Europe independent from American interference, able to do trade with the RoW on our terms.