28 June2023
Prigozhin is an emotional Russian, possibly even bipolar, possibly full of political ambition, possibly wanting to see the Russian defence minister and the chief of staff replaced possibly by himself over a disagreement a concerning strategy in Bahkmout.
Russia entered Ukraine back in Feb March last year and succeeded in bringing Zelinsky to the table. Heads of Chapter were agreed and para'ed, but 28 March America intervened at the behest of Biden and unfortunately for the world scuppered this peace settlement.
The Russians then embarked on a military strategy to obtain security on their border with objectives of eliminating the army and regime in Kiev with a war plan of attrition.
The centrepiece since February this year in this battle of attrition has been "operation meat grinder" in the former Bahkmout, a necessarily slow strategy of attrition. The Ministry fed Prigozhin insufficient munitions for a quick victory, since the Ministry was not intending this, which meant for Progorzin what he saw as the unecessary loss of life of his own men.
After months of rant and insubordination, Prigozhin took the route to Moscow to meet Shoigu and Gerasimov, Minister of Defense and Army Chief, with a view to taking over. Against his expectations, there was no support for his insurrection - none of the institutions, no leaders, not his own officers.
Bakhmout lies west of the defense lines that Russia has been building since October last year. This meant a contradiction in the plan for Bahkmout, where Pregozin intended taking the town, whereas the Ministry of Defense was only interested in using Bahkmout as a trap to grind down the Ukrainian Army.
Proof of this lies the result, that when Prigozin moved out, left he left a town without the earthworks necessary to defend it and vulnerable to attacks on its flanks.
To compensate these weaknesses, the Ministry of Defense had to rapidly move in troops from other frontline positions such as Malinka, in order to defend the new acquisition.
In reponse to Prigorzin's insubordination, seen as threatening politically, Putin moved in the police. To avoid bloodshed and a possible semblance to Russia's allies of civil conflict, Putin spared Prigozhin's life on condition he accept exile in Belarus. Prigozhin and maybe 5 to 8,000 of his solders have flown to Belarus.
I don't see that this weakened Putin, it might have strengthened him since the State maintained order throughout the episode. Putin found a way to defuse the threat without surprising onlooking allies, and through lack of any support, neither from Prigorzin's own generals, nor within the civil or military society at large, it was over within 24 hours.
That might be the end of story, though reverbations will continue...
26 July 2023
The Wagner group, as a mercenary force, offers various services to govt.s around the world.
It offers protection to a third country's elite, or even gets them into power, for example in Mali, where it helped a new regime to power in a coup in exchange for certain for mining rights. It then extracts the metal, usually gold ore, and sends it back to Russia where it is processed and added to Russia's treasury.
Or again, it appears that the Wagner group might currently be contracted out to the Belarus government to ensure that Poland does not encroach into Western Ukraine.
Incidentally, over time, Russia has built up a sizeable reserve in gold, underpinning its currency. So, since the start of the SMO, as they call it, let us compare FX pairs RUB/USD and RUB/EUR. The euro declined as much as 20% against the dollar, though it is now on about 10% down; while the ruble has appreciated by six or seven percent to the dollar.
Indeed, the three hour meeting Putin held with Prigorzin and his leadership might indicate an ongoing role for the Wagner group, being a group of mercenaries ( every country has its mercenaries often from Switzerland) still has a role to play and it seems unlikely, despite the words that it will be fully integrated into the Russian high command, that it will cease to exist as a semi-independent force and thus power base for Prigorzin.
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