AMERICA SEES THIS WAR AS A TEST OF ITS MUSCLE

21 June 2023

Ukraine may cease to exist, swallowed into S W Russia and Poland. Maybe R will take a further four oblasts, Odessa, possibly Transnistria.

All those places were built and colonised* by Russia centuries ago. They are Russian. This was the trouble if you remember - that Kev didn't like Russian speakers in Ukraine and began shelling them in 2014 This was the start of the physical confrontation.

It is very unlikely that a rump Ukraine after the war would be admitted to NATO. Putin has publicly declared Russia has no objection to whatever's left joining the EU, but the EU will not be able to accept Ukraine for many years, decades even.

So in all probability Russia will rebuild Novorossiya and leave the rest to Poland or the EU or some rump state that will still carry the name "Ukraine".

* Vassal states are states that have given up their full sovereignity to another (usually more powerful) state in exchange for security. A Tributary states is a kind of vassal that pays tributes (usually money or manpower) to their suzerain in exchange for protection. Rather like the Mafia who often extort people in exchange for giving said people some protection (from the same Mafia of course!). While not fully sovereign, a vassal state usually is nominally independent.

Compare this with colonisation. Colonisation is a migration, a slow invasion a process of sending settlers to populate an area and rule over the indigenous people. Some examples of colonisation are the Portuguese settling on initially empty Madeira and the Azores, Europeans replacing Native Americans in the Americas, Dutch then English in South Africa (not so successful). The consequences of colonisation vary from replacement of the local demographic or simply switching the local culture to that of the colonisers.

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There are those who believe the West will prevail and Ukraine will defeat Russia and there are those who see events point in a different direction.

Those who think Ukraine will defeat Russia, try to boost our morale or keep us quiet and at home. 

But to others, the facts tell a different story. We want the American Order to prevail, but think the (neocon) strategy of conflict and war is not going to work.

We think that pursuing goals exclusively by military means is not going to work in Ukraine. This is a proxy war. Neither Russia nor America can accept defeat. 

The one employs a strategy of attrition to gradually wipe out the army, reduce the infrastructure to rubble and replace the government with one more favourably disposed to neutrality.

The other wants to contain, weaken and replace the government of the one in a strategy necessarily of escalation. It believes a negotiated peace settlement would be seen as weakness and embolden the real foe, the Chinese, not just to take Taiwan, but to kick the one out of Asia altogether, replacing it as world hegemon.

Neither can accept defeat. The conflict slowly escalates as it destroys, leaving the belligerents stripped down to only their nuclear explosive belts and underpants.

That's why I believe there are not and never will be any off-ramps for current government leaders. To avoid certain nuclear war, one or both must be replaced.

So we want reform - essentially, regime change in Washington. Then, we believe, the West will have a better chance.

We've got the wrong leadership and are losing and something must be done about this, and quickly.

Otherwise, how will we in Europe manage defeat? What will the consequences be for us?

There aren't any easy answers to any of this, but the current track is a disaster for everyone.

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America sees this war as a test of strength. America believes it is being watched by China. Americans thinks that if China sees America seeking peace it means defeat and appeasement or compromise with Russia. America thinks this will encourage China to use force in Taiwan. The Chinese will have encouragement that they can get a settlement in their favour.

What is being fought over is not just little Taiwan or even less significant Ukraine, but a superpower fight for the top position. If Russia prevails in Eastern Europe, China can prevail in Asia. China becomes the regional Hegemon and that's the end of American dominance. 

America's strategy for Eurasia is to contain Russia in East Europe and separate Germany from Russia (both part of the same European plain). It is employing the policy of containment, as elaborated by George F. Kennan way back in 1947* who inherited from Halford Mackinder, 1904**. 

America is employing the very same strategy to contain China within the first island ring.  

The end of American dominance in Asia means America is kicked off the first island ring - Japan, S Korea, Taiwan (sic), and out of the nine-dash line. 

So we need to understand there is a lot at stake here and anyone who advocates the containment of Russia by military means needs to realise just how high are the stakes.

There is a mindset full of moral abhorrence at "this illegal and unprovoked invasion", but this viewpoint is completely detached from reality. If anyone in power pays any attention to this kind of talk, then by current logistics, the West will be defeated in Ukraine and resoundingly so.

Who was it who said we must deal with the world as we find it and not as we would like it to be?

I think the problem here is the people like this commenter who believe that the power of the United States of America is unlimited, that it's resources are unlimited, that it can do anything it likes anywhere anytime ... and yet take a look at history where America has cut and run from all its major foreign policy Adventures. Why should it be any different this time?

* https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/cwr/17601.htm

** https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-mackinders-heartland-theory-4068393