Friday, 30 June 2023

NABEN - A BALINESE HINDU COLLECTIVE FUNERAL

30 June 2023



You have to attend and talk to local people before you can understand what otherwise seem to be bizarre local customs and rituals at a Hindu Bali funeral, called a "naben".

Cremation is believed to drive off evil spirits linked to greed or excessive desire, allowing the person a second chance following his or her rebirth. It is a purification of the soul.

However, I am told that the cost of an elaborate cremation ceremony in this country is too high for an individual family to bear alone.. 


And so grieving families must wait for a large number of people to pass away (this is all true) and then they share the costs at a collective cremation.

So what about the bodies while they are waiting, piling up somewhere?


So here's the strange part... If a person dies, they're buried first, buried in the ground. Over time, the numbers of dead and buried build up and a year later, sometimes as long as five years later, the bones are dug up and burnt at this collective cremation ceremony called a Naben.


Yesterday's naben concerned fifty local people who had died these last two years. One was a member of the king's family, so following the rules of the caste system, he received a luxury funeral and was kept separate from the ordinary castes. His pyre has nine levels, as you can see in the photo, which are ordinal points on the compass that attest to his high birth and assist his navigation to the next world.


Someone asked me what the attendees do at a naben - "do they just sit around?".

As it's only the long-buried bones, there's really not much to disagree with at this ceremony governed as it is by ancient ritual, evolved and tested over time; but if it's a freshly dead person there's the flesh as well which bubbles and squeaks as the air and grease is burnt out, an experience for those present that even elaborate ritual cannot easily calm and dignify.

On this occasion yesterday, along with the bones of the elderly long-time buried and exhumed, there was a 17 year old boy killed just last week, in a scooter accident most likely. The family had kept the body of the boy in their home, temporarily preserved in formalin. 

They use a gas burner, as in any crematorium, and the pyre is as much for display as those electric log fires. One of the organisers keeps the decorative border watered to keep up the appearance and stop the flames from spreading.

Wailing or any dramatic scenes of grief are not permitted by the etiquette because this would be to question the god's calling time on one of his faithful followers. It is the same for many beliefs.

The body of this boy took a long time to be reduced to ashes, the hissing and spitting of the fire accompanied the sadness and tears of his stricken parents, family and school chums. Each comforts themself alone, head bowed quietly in hands.

COMMENT

Horrific and quite touching all at the same time. I had some bacon in the pan behind me as I read this. It was hissing and spitting. I think it will go to the doggy this morning.

Thursday, 29 June 2023

REVIEW OF LEGAL AND GENERAL LGEN

29 June 2023

Can anyone reading this post answer this query - I am not qualified in this area.

My holding is twice my target position size. I should have sold part at 280p+, but foolishly skipped my own precepts on diversification (15% of my dividefensive portfolio, should be 7%).

Comforted by the yield: 8.5% - payout ratio: 50% - cash payout: 6%.
9 on last 10 yrs of divi increases at 5% on ave increase every yr for last 5 yrs. The recent post covid average yield has been about 7.5% and as it's currently at 8.5%, it implies that the share price is depressed as people buy legal and general for the Divi.

Patiently waiting 280-300 band, in ? 2-3 yrs time?

The worry is the debt pile, and exposure to rising int rates and the property market, debt is over 6 times equity, this ratio up by a half these last 5 yrs, once is already enough.
But debt is a qtr of cash flow and interest is covered 14 times by EBIT.
For every basis pt rise in interest rates, how much does this shave off EPS? I don't know but I should do as this is clearly the driver of the precipitous falls in the share price.

EPS this yr: 36p, next yr: 41p, divi is: 20p. ROCE is pretty much zero, 0....not good.

According to my grand dividend strategy and investment process, which is very difficult to implement I have to admit!, I look first for companies with earnings from outside the UK, then I look for diversification across sectors and the business cycle, and then within a sector I look for the best future return on my investment.

Lastly, I try to get the timing right which is your question Alex using a bit of technical analysis ("a bit" is all I have at the moment). LGEN is currently 7.06% under its 50-day simple moving average, prices stay below this which suggests a short term bearish trend and 6.62% under the 200 DMA, same conclusion for the longer term. The RSI at 44.4 is weakly bearish.
So looks like we're in a lateral Trend the transaction volumes are half what they usually are and so I would say it is as safe to buy as it is to sell, but hold is best for the longer term ie once we get over this inflation / interest rate mountain...if....

All that sounds very grand, but making it work is a bit of a nightmare!! Fundamentally it's a really sound company going through a bad patch at the moment with its exposure to interest rate hikes which I think is much overdone in legal and Generals case.
TA is good at the moment of decision, if you're a trader (not me).
Sentiment as I say is depressed as is the economy seemingly in stagflation and seemingly heading into a recession.
It's not great but LGEN does have underappreciated defensive qualities... does anyone have any better ideas?


All opinion and advice welcome.

WAS PRIGO ALONE, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

28 June 2023


Prigozhin is an emotional Russian, possibly even bipolar, possibly full of political ambition, possibly wanting to see the Russian defence minister and the chief of staff replaced, possibly by himself, over a disagreement concerning strategy in Bahkmout. We know little about this person and understand less.

Russia entered Ukraine back in Feb March 2022 and succeeded in bringing Zelinsky to the negotiating table. Heads of Chapter were agreed and para'ed, but 28 March, America intervened at the behest of Biden, in the form of lackey Boris Johnson, and unfortunately for the world scuppered this peace settlement.

The Russians then embarked on a military strategy to obtain security on their border with objectives of eliminating the army and regime in Kiev with a war plan of attrition.

The centrepiece since February this year in this battle of attrition has been "operation meat grinder" in the former Bahkmout, a necessarily slow strategy of attrition. The Ministry fed Prigozhin insufficient munitions for a quick victory, since the Ministry was not intending this, which meant for Progorzin what he saw as the unecessary loss of life of his own men.

After months of rant and insubordination, Prigozhin took the route to Moscow to meet  Shoigu and Gerasimov, Minister of Defense and Army Chief, with a view to taking over.  Against his expectations, there was no support for his insurrection - none of the institutions, no leaders, not his own officers.

Bakhmout lies west of the defense lines that Russia has been building since October last year. This meant a contradiction in the plan for Bahkmout, where Pregozin intended taking the town, whereas the Ministry of Defense was only interested in using Bahkmout as a trap to grind down the Ukrainian Army. 

Proof of this lies the result, that when Prigozin moved out, left he left a town without the earthworks necessary to defend it and vulnerable to attacks on its flanks. 

To compensate these weaknesses, the Ministry of Defense had to rapidly move in troops from other frontline positions such as Malinka, in order to defend the new acquisition.

In reponse to Prigorzin's insubordination, seen as threatening politically, Putin moved in the police. To avoid bloodshed and a possible semblance to Russia's allies of civil conflict, Putin spared Prigozhin's life on condition he accept exile in Belarus. Prigozhin and maybe 5 to 8,000 of his solders have flown to Belarus.

I don't see that this weakened Putin, it might have strengthened him since the State maintained order throughout the episode. Putin found a way to defuse the threat without surprising onlooking allies, and through lack of any support, neither from Prigorzin's own generals, nor within the civil or military society at large, it was over within 24 hours.




26 July 2023

The Wagner group, as a mercenary force, offers various services to govt.s around the world.

It offers protection to a third country's elite, or even gets them into power, for example in Mali, where it helped a new regime to power in a coup in exchange for certain for mining rights. It then extracts the metal, usually gold ore, and sends it back to Russia where it is processed and added to Russia's treasury.


Or again, it appears that the Wagner group might currently be contracted out to the Belarus government to ensure that Poland does not encroach into Western Ukraine.

Incidentally, over time, Russia has built up a sizeable reserve in gold, underpinning its currency. So, since the start of the SMO, as they call it, let us compare FX pairs RUB/USD and RUB/EUR. The euro declined as much as 20% against the dollar, though it is now on about 10% down; while the ruble has appreciated by six or seven percent to the dollar.


Indeed, the three hour meeting Putin held with Prigorzin and his leadership might indicate an ongoing role for the Wagner group, being a group of mercenaries ( every country has its mercenaries often from Switzerland) still has a role to play and it seems unlikely, despite the words that it will be fully integrated into the Russian high command, that it will cease to exist as a semi-independent force and thus power base for Prigorzin.


Wednesday, 28 June 2023

WHY DID PRIGO MARCH ON MOSCOW

28 June 2023

https://www.youtube.com/live/0OAKfQri1Vk?feature=share

So Prigo was a plant, a dble agent, played to distract Ukrainian intelligence at a time when Russia was exposed in the course of making troop movements. 

The CIA apparently and Biden contacted the Kremlin to reassure America was not involved. Something Putin never accused America of in the first place.

The man wearing my grandmother's curtains says Prigo is a dangle.

Personally, if I had to offer an explanation, I would say that Prigo was suffering from traumatic stress and was deeply angered by the military command withholding supplies of Munitions that resulted in what he saw as the unnecessary deaths of his men. 

Finally after several months of this feeling that he was being used by the military, he rebelled and set off to unseat them.

And it's probably true that HQ was withholding Munitions in order that Prigo could not make too much progress 

because the idea was to let the Ukrainians flow into the Bahkmout trap and kill them and had he, Prigo, cleaned out the enemy troops from Bahkmout too quickly and effectively - as he could have done, with sufficient supplies - that would have meant fewer Ukrainian casualties. 

Bearing in mind the object of the exercise is to annihilate the Ukrainian Army and the Kievian leadership.

With the goal of a disarmed and neutral Ukrainian "rump state", or its total absorption into S W Russia and Eastern Poland.

Tuesday, 27 June 2023

A CAUTIONARY TALE

27 June 2023
It never rains, then it pours!
(A cautionary tale.)

                    Resi Cave, WONOGIRI

Just lost Marc, my French friend who ran a bar with his localborn wife. Lost my friend and colleague James a couple of months back too. And Alex, another great guy on the  Residents' Committee where I live. My friend's mother is another. 

Just this year.
Dear oh dear oh dear!!!


An elderly friend of a friend of mine decided one day to visit a cave on a bus tour, organised by a club she belongs to.

This lady is a healthy, reasonably fit 76 year old. She does pilates-for-pensioners once a week.

Still, she's a bit frail - 76 ! - and the lighting in the cave was not adequate and the path underfoot was uncertain.

My friend's friend slipped and fell. She broke one leg at the level of the hip, the other leg at the ankle.

Now she is in hospital about to have the first of possibly several surgical operations. It is hoped she will make a full recovery within six months. In the meantime, she is bed-ridden.

What do you think will happen next?

She is a cheerful, optimistic, sociable, confident little lady. Even a bit adventurous! 

She went into this adventure without checking the risks ... what might go wrong and how to manage the potential threats. Turned out bats and guano were the least of her worries.

         “Beware! Beware! The Forest of Sin!

         None come out, but many go in!”


Not to say "don't run any risks, especially when you're old", just saying "look before you leap" ... she can do what she wants, enjoy her life, but identify the risks alongside the desires and take action to reduce them beforehand.

===Letter of sympathy to the older sister of the lady who fell.

Dear Madam,

 I can imagine Mrs. Kus [the name of the lady who fell over] who is usually agile will have to take an enforced rest for a while.

We are all sad, we share your sadness, but no one could have foretold this preordained disaster.

Thank goodness that at least Mrs. Kus is in the best possible care.

I remember how you always advised that older people should take especial care to avoid situations where they might fall.

I remember very well your  oft-repeated caution about the need to be careful.

But no matter what has happened, all we can do now is to accept the fates reserved to us  and adapt to our destiny.

Sunday, 25 June 2023

MOSCOW HAS NOT BEEN SACKED

24 June 2023

Putin has always treated Prigozhin like a wayward kid brother and now lets him off the hook and slink away to Belarus, a less well structured state where he Prigozhin could do real damage - Belarus is almost as important to Russian security as Ukraine.

In a Western democracy, Prigozhin would be under lock and key by now.

Imagine if Prigozhin had reached Moscow and begun looting. Reminds me of those few hundred crusaders who got into Constantinople and sacked it before being beaten away. Or the military who challenged de Gaulle back in 1962 over his decision to liberate Algeria.

People are pointing out how weak Russia is north of Ukraine and a push by Ukraine would give a Kievian army access to the M4 motorway and Moscow, as had Wagner. Well, many have gone in (over 50 invasions, helps understand Russian security concerns), Napoleon the best known, the Germans tried it, history is that few have come out in one piece, so Kiev en route to Moscow is a bit fanciful ... but increasing surprises in the world today ... I'd not have imagined Moscow would let Prigozhin get this far, it sows doubts about the governance of Russia frankly.

===

A coup attempt - to denounce and decry as a coup would be a classic tactic of Putin's enemies. But attempted coup it was, though Prigozhin has denied trying to topple the govt, saying he had wanted to object to a decision to disband his militia as well as demonstrate the weakness of Russia’s domestic defences.

This was an increasingly vitrioloc attack by a battlefield commander (more on that later) on his generals sitting back in HQ. Yevgeny Prigozhin considers he was deliberately undersupplied with munitions by envious armchair generals. 

From what I can understand, Prigozhin was deliberately slowed down in this military operation named by Russia named Operation Meat Grinder (sic - Russian military gave this  name, or adopted it) because the idea was that the Ukrainians would file into the Bahkmout trap and be annihilated - the longer they filed in the better for this strategy of attrition.

But of course the longer the strategy went on the more of Prigozhin's soldiers were sacrificed. There is one famous video of him standing in front of the bodies of 94 of his men killed he says because they did not have munitions in sufficient quantities to defend themselves.

On the one hand, you can argue that this is proof that Putin is not a dictator; but what is worrying is Putin's slack treatment of this insubordination, as though Prigozhin were a wayward kid brother. His whole approach to the war has been to try and spare the suffering, to spare the lives of his troops and also civilian lives in Ukraine.

So putting all this together, we get the impression of a rather too political or soft leadership - Putin has even let Prigozhin off the hook, aswhere we would have put him in gaol, as he is now off to Belarus where he may cause more trouble again.

While the pro-Russian chattering classes on telegram etc all rally round Putin, including Putin's harshest critics, we do come away with the worrisome impression that Putin is not fully in charge, not fully in control - this is worrisome to his people, but also to his allies. 

===

Strange that Ukraine's offensive and Prigordzin's coup both coincided and both required Russian weakness if they were to succeed.

Prigozhin has a massive energy behind a massive ego. This rant of his has been building since February.  Russian authorities allowed all that and seemingly didn't see the trek up the M4 coming. The Russians are so confident they didn't imagine others would perceive weakness.

The attempt failed because Prigozhin had no support and the authorities mobilised quickly to put it down without bloodshed.

So it shows how solid is Russia's present political system, but it also demonstrates a strength of democracy, that opposition can flow through institutional channels and not butt against them.

My memory of this short-lived rebellion will be Putin's speech comparing this with 1917 - must be said seemed a bit panicky.

===

It was in CNN 2 weeks beforehand... but of course no one in Russia reads the Western press, not for a moment.

What I would like to know is who organised this? Because Prigozhin, a figurehead, lacking military qualifications, relying on his generals, couldn't have done it on his own

But his generals didn't support him.

So he must have had outside help.

And yet no one in Russian Society supported him either.

So where did that help come from, I wonder... not that I'm paranoid or a conspiracist

We need Seymour Hersch on the trail.

Seems everyone knew what was going on except of course Putin

And that includes Prigozhin, aware he had no support, neither within Wagner, nor within Russian society ... if true what was he thinking about? What was he doing this for? Well, now he has given his explanation.

Friday, 23 June 2023

HEALTH AND WELLNESS

23 June 2023

On a different subject from the focus on war, here is a nicely written article on a subject of personal interest, and demographics means emerging global interest too.


https://thebalisun.com/health-and-wellness-becomes-top-tourism-priority-for-bali/

P

HUMMUS - BEST RECIPE

23 June 2023


https://www.themediterraneandish.com/how-to-make-hummus/

Wednesday, 21 June 2023

AMERICA SEES THIS WAR AS A TEST OF ITS MUSCLE

21 June 2023

Ukraine may cease to exist, swallowed into S W Russia and Poland. Maybe R will take a further four oblasts, Odessa, possibly Transnistria.

All those places were built and colonised* by Russia centuries ago. They are Russian. This was the trouble if you remember - that Kev didn't like Russian speakers in Ukraine and began shelling them in 2014 This was the start of the physical confrontation.

It is very unlikely that a rump Ukraine after the war would be admitted to NATO. Putin has publicly declared Russia has no objection to whatever's left joining the EU, but the EU will not be able to accept Ukraine for many years, decades even.

So in all probability Russia will rebuild Novorossiya and leave the rest to Poland or the EU or some rump state that will still carry the name "Ukraine".

* Vassal states are states that have given up their full sovereignity to another (usually more powerful) state in exchange for security. A Tributary states is a kind of vassal that pays tributes (usually money or manpower) to their suzerain in exchange for protection. Rather like the Mafia who often extort people in exchange for giving said people some protection (from the same Mafia of course!). While not fully sovereign, a vassal state usually is nominally independent.

Compare this with colonisation. Colonisation is a migration, a slow invasion a process of sending settlers to populate an area and rule over the indigenous people. Some examples of colonisation are the Portuguese settling on initially empty Madeira and the Azores, Europeans replacing Native Americans in the Americas, Dutch then English in South Africa (not so successful). The consequences of colonisation vary from replacement of the local demographic or simply switching the local culture to that of the colonisers.

===

There are those who believe the West will prevail and Ukraine will defeat Russia and there are those who see events point in a different direction.

Those who think Ukraine will defeat Russia, try to boost our morale or keep us quiet and at home. 

But to others, the facts tell a different story. We want the American Order to prevail, but think the (neocon) strategy of conflict and war is not going to work.

We think that pursuing goals exclusively by military means is not going to work in Ukraine. This is a proxy war. Neither Russia nor America can accept defeat. 

The one employs a strategy of attrition to gradually wipe out the army, reduce the infrastructure to rubble and replace the government with one more favourably disposed to neutrality.

The other wants to contain, weaken and replace the government of the one in a strategy necessarily of escalation. It believes a negotiated peace settlement would be seen as weakness and embolden the real foe, the Chinese, not just to take Taiwan, but to kick the one out of Asia altogether, replacing it as world hegemon.

Neither can accept defeat. The conflict slowly escalates as it destroys, leaving the belligerents stripped down to only their nuclear explosive belts and underpants.

That's why I believe there are not and never will be any off-ramps for current government leaders. To avoid certain nuclear war, one or both must be replaced.

So we want reform - essentially, regime change in Washington. Then, we believe, the West will have a better chance.

We've got the wrong leadership and are losing and something must be done about this, and quickly.

Otherwise, how will we in Europe manage defeat? What will the consequences be for us?

There aren't any easy answers to any of this, but the current track is a disaster for everyone.

===

America sees this war as a test of strength. America believes it is being watched by China. Americans thinks that if China sees America seeking peace it means defeat and appeasement or compromise with Russia. America thinks this will encourage China to use force in Taiwan. The Chinese will have encouragement that they can get a settlement in their favour.

What is being fought over is not just little Taiwan or even less significant Ukraine, but a superpower fight for the top position. If Russia prevails in Eastern Europe, China can prevail in Asia. China becomes the regional Hegemon and that's the end of American dominance. 

America's strategy for Eurasia is to contain Russia in East Europe and separate Germany from Russia (both part of the same European plain). It is employing the policy of containment, as elaborated by George F. Kennan way back in 1947* who inherited from Halford Mackinder, 1904**. 

America is employing the very same strategy to contain China within the first island ring.  

The end of American dominance in Asia means America is kicked off the first island ring - Japan, S Korea, Taiwan (sic), and out of the nine-dash line. 

So we need to understand there is a lot at stake here and anyone who advocates the containment of Russia by military means needs to realise just how high are the stakes.

There is a mindset full of moral abhorrence at "this illegal and unprovoked invasion", but this viewpoint is completely detached from reality. If anyone in power pays any attention to this kind of talk, then by current logistics, the West will be defeated in Ukraine and resoundingly so.

Who was it who said we must deal with the world as we find it and not as we would like it to be?

I think the problem here is the people like this commenter who believe that the power of the United States of America is unlimited, that it's resources are unlimited, that it can do anything it likes anywhere anytime ... and yet take a look at history where America has cut and run from all its major foreign policy Adventures. Why should it be any different this time?

* https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/cwr/17601.htm

** https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-mackinders-heartland-theory-4068393

Monday, 19 June 2023

WHAT WILL BE THE NEXT AMERICAN HORROR SHOW

19 June 2023

Well the basics are that Ukraine is outnumbered 10 to 1, by a professional army, taking abnormally high (in the history of warfare) losses, in a war of attrition it cannot sustain.

What could save Ukraine is intervention by East European armies, or supply of "tactical" nuclear. Neither seems likely.

From the little I can make sense of, indications are that Ukraine has got maybe a couple of months oumph left in it. Then I suppose, before our very eyes, Ukraine will be made to dissappear....to be replaced by?... the next American horror show.

Wednesday, 7 June 2023

WE ALL NEED AN ADVISORY CIRCLE

7 June 2023

Well, we all need a friend.

I would not undertake important change in my life, such as a house renovation or job application, or progress in my career, relationships, without consulting my "circle of advisors". I have learnt the hard way to plan and validate the plan and to verify progress with my circle.

Perhaps your circle is sons and daughters, your family, or maybe a group from university, and it could be they who consult more with you as there is more change in their lives and because you have more experience or lessons-learnt of managing particular challenges, though you consult them too. 

We all go through major changes in our lives such as establishing a savings/pension plans, house purchase/rent, house update, recovering debt or some legal or accounting matter, changing country, job applications... all this kind of thing is talked about exhaustively at meetings or by text (though your advisors are really busy) before it's acted upon.

This clarifies thinking, reduces error and gives heart.

Most of the 'talking' is acrually text msging, but you may like to meet weekly on the chat app (there'll be times when it doesn't  work too well with problems of availability).

All this to say, if you can share your projects you can work through them informally...though in practise, by habit now, you'll go through the usual routine, which amounts to conception, validation and verification:

from SWOT analysis of problems/requirements, to goals, to strategies, programs, plans, execution, monitoring and final review.

I don't think things, including warm, humourous, close and supportive relations, would be the same without this practise. It's usually successful !!!

You can start this today.