REGIME CHANGE IN AMERICA NOW

30 May 2023

Today we look at the arguments for and against Swedish membership of NATO, before turning to the context as part of American foreign policy, possible consequences for Sweden keeping in mind events in Ukraine, and alternatives to current American goals.

SWEDISH NATO MEMBERSHIP

Sweden doesn't need to be in NATO. There is no threat to Sweden from Russia. This is all a propaganda campaign for enlargement and Sweden has been on the list for a long time due to its excellent defence industry, which NATO hopes to use more widely.

Joining NATO is only beneficial to Swedish defense companies such as: Saab, Bofors*, Hägglunds** et al. (*part under Saab, part under BAE; **now under BAE) and will confer zero net benefit to the Swedish taxpayer as billions will be spent annually to meet NATO minimum defense spending targets - money that could be spent on supporting new industries of the future, education or healthcare.

This is a nonsense campaign to capitalise on the Ukraine conflict so as to scare the general public of Sweden and Swedish MPs in particular into thinking there is a huge threat, when there really isn't one at all.

RATIONALE FOR MEMBERSHIP

On the contrary, Sweden has invaded Russia twice in the past.

Nowhere in the public record is there any utterance by Putin saying that he has any hostile intentions towards Sweden.

On the other hand, I imagine that if Sweden joins NATO and NATO plants nuclear weapons pointed at Moscow on its territory, then I think Sweden will come in for a new kind of attention from Russia.

GREAT AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY DISASTERS

So, $2t in Afghanistan and $5t in Iraq. How much in Vietnam? And Syria, Libya. How's Iran going?.....long list of expensive foreign policy disasters. Oh and tell us about the success of the "worldwide" sanctions on the economies of the West. And Ukraine is shaping up to be far and away the greatest of all Great American Disasters.

How do they all end? With America cutting and running in humiliating defeats, leaving behind them a dazed people wondering what has just happened to them, and decades of suffering and destruction.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE UKRAINE ADVENTURE

So what confidence can anyone have that the situation in Ukraine will turn out any differently, this time in America's favour? Against a nuclear-armed Russian Federation with most of the world supporting Russia?

None whatsoever - this is a war America will lose, for military and moral reasons, and it will bankrupt America and "the collective West" from all points of view.

For it is not only Ukraine that is being bled white in this proxy war - Ukraine has been well and truly conned - but from an economic point of view, so is Europe and in particular Germany; and this is America's purpose too.

CONCLUSIONS

This is all so utterly futile, disastrous and foolish from a European's point of view - and the FT, DT, Economist and MSM generally should immediately stop their misleading propaganda and get down to truthful reporting that is in the national interest, in the interests of our country and its people.

And the sooner we kick the Americans out of our share of this continent the better. Once we achieve independence, we will wipe the floor with America and China (though I admit this is a 20-year Project).

Can people not see what is basically going on here? It is evident to me at least that this is the machinations of the American neocons, who are lining their own pockets and those of the military industrial congressional elite; and imagine that they are promoting American hegemony.

This is so utterly futile and ridiculous - just look at the litter of humiliating defeats America has suffered since and including Vietnam.

ALTERNATIVES FOR THE FUTURE

Just think of how all that war money could have been spent an initiative similar to China's Belt and Road ... or infrastructure, healthcare, education. And China is quietly catching up so fast. 

These neocons live in a virtual and highly selfish and immoral world of their own imagination. While back in the real world, we take the damage to our planet and our environment, our peoples and our economies, our prosperity, happiness and chances of success.

To protect our futures and The American Order (empire, of which we are a part). If ever regime change in America was needed, it is now.

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RUSSIA'S MONROE DOCTRINE

28 May 2023

The history of this West-East war explicitly begins in 1991 with statements from James Baker and others, promises that were not kept.

I say "explicitly", but you could go back to the Russian communist revolution of 1917, or to Mackinder's Heartland Theory 1904, or to The Great Schism between Rome and Constantinople 1378, or indeed to waves of migrations East to West into Europe of the varied ethnic nomadic groups who have at times inhabited the steppes of Central Asia, Mongolia and the Slavs of what is currently Russia and Ukraine.

History would also help understand Russia's particular sensitivity to its security, after all it has been invaded over 50 times including Napoleon and Hitler twice by Sweden and even Canada!

They also say that "geography is destiny" and if you look at the world's most vulnerable frontier in Central Europe (if you follow Mackinder) you will see that there are nine gaps through which invaders have passed and this would lead to an understanding of why Russia might want to protect these gaps in some way or another, given the history above.

https://zeihan.com/russias-twilight-war/

Under Putin, Russia has sought a peaceful resolution of this conflict, but the provocations finally became too much of an existential threat and Russia intervened to protect its own on 24 February 2022. So a defensive war that any Russian leader would have undertaken -  imagine if the same thing happened to America, how it would respond? America has its Monroe Doctrine 1823.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine

Secretary of State John Quincy Adams, author of the Monroe Doctrine, photo.

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YESTERDAY, A STREAKER AT THE BALI DANSE

27 May 2023

Bule Kesurupan Masuk Ke PURE

https://coconuts.co/bali/news/naked-german-woman-crashes-balinese-dance-show-at-ubud-temple/

mp4 uncensored available ...

This unusual sighting occured at the Balinese danse near Ubud Palace (Puri Saraswati) on Monday 22 May . The danse was interrupted by a streaker  Was it drugs? Who knows? 

She was deported back to Germany, refused to get on the plane and is now in a home for mentally disturbed pple, the Bangli Mental Institution.

What's also interesting is how the audience - the Western audience - reacted ... or rather didn't! Noone batted an eyelid.

We remember the incident at Lords cricket ground where the policemen ran up and tried to cover the offenders part with his helmet ha ha.

If the audience had been jarvanese tourists and not foreign, their reaction would have been the same only much stronger. There would have been large numbers of outraged people from the audience immediately trying to cover this girl up with anything that they had to hand....Even to the point where several of them may have themselves found themselves naked ha ha!

But not these Westerners, no, not us. Stiff upper, errrr, lip.

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BALI, COVID, AND IDENTITY POLITICS

25 May 2023

The woman who made up this package of fruit for my friends says that she had been saving to buy a property in Bali from before covid.

Then when covid struck, she had to use all her savings in order just to live.

So today thanks to covid she has nothing and cannot buy a house.

But she is happy. She says "Alhamdulillah" ("praise be to God") because she is grateful to have survived. She is from a humble family, is used to having little money, is willing to start all-over. She is a positive and strong person.

Compare with handling of businesses by our government in UK - such mad over-support -  and look at where we are today with all this high-level corruption, debt and inflation, inequality where the top 1% seem to get richer with every national setback and own almost everything.

She is originally from Java (the main island West of Bali). Her husband is also from the same village back in Java, though ironically they met here in Bali.

After a number of business failures, in 2012 she negotiated a ten-year lease on a small stand in the local market, paying £650 a year in rent and started her fruit stall.

She has three children now. Thinking about the future, they are saving to buy land and build a home.

She is a covered muslima. She says Bali people are very tolerant. Though majority Hindu, she feels very welcome and accepted here.

Contrast that with Modi's populist India or with the Anglo-Saxons' absurd obsession with 'identity politics'.

(Could Identity Politics and "Cancel Culture" be nothing more than a montage to mislead and distract from the real-world problems the UK faces - a device to divide-and-rule and hang on to power?)

At all events, everyone appears to get on well together and the island of six million plus people is again prospering. The island's economy is almost entirely reliant on tourism. So popular is the island that the Tourist Authority must protect the environment and tourist infrastructure and is devising means to limit the number of visitors.

25 พฤษภาคม 2566

 

 ผู้หญิงที่ทำผลไม้ห่อนี้ให้เพื่อนของฉันบอกว่าเธอเก็บเงินซื้ออสังหาริมทรัพย์ในบาหลีตั้งแต่ก่อนโควิด

 เมื่อเกิดโควิดเธอต้องใช้เงินเก็บทั้งหมดเพื่อมีชีวิตอยู่

 วันนี้ต้องขอบคุณโควิดที่เธอไม่มีอะไรเลยและไม่สามารถซื้อบ้านได้

 แต่เธอมีความสุข  เธอกล่าวว่า "Alhamdulillah" ("สรรเสริญพระเจ้า") เพราะเธอรู้สึกขอบคุณที่รอดชีวิตมาได้  เธอมาจากครอบครัวที่ต่ำต้อย คุ้นเคยกับการมีเงินเพียงเล็กน้อย และเต็มใจที่จะเริ่มต้นใหม่ทั้งหมด  เธอเป็นคนคิดบวกและเข้มแข็ง

 เปรียบเทียบกับการจัดการธุรกิจโดยรัฐบาลของเราในสหราชอาณาจักร - การสนับสนุนอย่างล้นหลาม -  และดูว่าเราอยู่ ณ จุดใดในปัจจุบันด้วยการคอร์รัปชั่นระดับสูง หนี้ และเงินเฟ้อ ความไม่เท่าเทียมที่ 1% แรกดูเหมือนจะร่ำรวยขึ้นพร้อมกับความพ่ายแพ้ในระดับชาติทุกครั้ง  และเป็นเจ้าของเกือบทุกอย่าง

 เธอมีพื้นเพมาจากเกาะชวา (เกาะหลักทางตะวันตกของบาหลี)  สามีของเธอก็มาจากหมู่บ้านเดียวกันในชวาเช่นกัน แม้ว่าพวกเขาจะพบกันที่บาหลีอย่างน่าขันก็ตาม

 หลังจากความล้มเหลวทางธุรกิจหลายครั้ง ในปี 2555 เธอได้เจรจาขอเช่าพื้นที่เล็กๆ ในตลาดท้องถิ่นเป็นเวลา 10 ปี โดยจ่ายค่าเช่า 650 ปอนด์ต่อปี และเริ่มแผงขายผลไม้ของเธอ

 ตอนนี้เธอมีลูกสามคน  เมื่อคิดถึงอนาคต พวกเขากำลังเก็บออมเพื่อซื้อที่ดินและสร้างบ้าน

 เธอเป็นมุสลิมะฮฺที่ปกปิดมิดชิด  เธอบอกว่าคนบาหลีมีความอดทนสูงมาก  แม้ว่าเธอจะนับถือศาสนาฮินดูเป็นส่วนใหญ่ แต่เธอก็รู้สึกยินดีและยอมรับที่นี่

 ตรงกันข้ามกับอินเดียประชานิยมของ Modi หรือกับแองโกล-แซกซอนที่หมกมุ่นไร้สาระกับ 'การเมืองแบบอัตลักษณ์'

 (การเมืองอัตลักษณ์และ "ยกเลิกวัฒนธรรม" อาจเป็นเพียงภาพตัดต่อที่ทำให้เข้าใจผิดและหันเหความสนใจจากปัญหาในโลกแห่งความเป็นจริงที่สหราชอาณาจักรเผชิญ - อุปกรณ์ในการแบ่งแยกและปกครองและยึดมั่นในอำนาจ?)

 ในทุกเหตุการณ์ ทุกคนดูเหมือนจะเข้ากันได้ดี และเกาะที่มีผู้คนกว่าหกล้านคนก็กลับมารุ่งเรืองอีกครั้ง  เศรษฐกิจของเกาะเกือบทั้งหมดพึ่งพาการท่องเที่ยว  เกาะแห่งนี้ได้รับความนิยมอย่างมากจนหน่วยงานด้านการท่องเที่ยวต้องปกป้องสิ่งแวดล้อมและโครงสร้างพื้นฐานด้านการท่องเที่ยว และกำลังคิดค้นวิธีการจำกัดจำนวนนักท่องเที่ยว

25 Mei 2023

 

 Wanita yang membuat paket buah ini untuk teman saya mengatakan bahwa dia telah menabung untuk membeli properti di Bali dari sebelum covid.

 Kemudian ketika covid melanda, dia harus menggunakan semua tabungannya hanya untuk hidup.

 Jadi hari ini berkat covid dia tidak punya apa-apa dan tidak bisa membeli rumah.

 Tapi dia bahagia. Dia mengatakan "Alhamdulillah" ("segala puji bagi Tuhan") karena dia bersyukur telah selamat. Dia berasal dari keluarga sederhana, terbiasa memiliki sedikit uang, bersedia untuk memulai dari awal. Dia adalah orang yang positif dan kuat.

 Bandingkan dengan penanganan bisnis oleh pemerintah kita di Inggris - dukungan berlebihan yang gila - dan lihat di mana kita hari ini dengan semua korupsi tingkat tinggi, utang dan inflasi, ketidaksetaraan di mana 1% teratas tampaknya menjadi lebih kaya dengan setiap kemunduran nasional dan memiliki hampir segalanya.

 Dia berasal dari Jawa (pulau utama di sebelah barat Bali). Suaminya juga dari desa yang sama di Jawa, meski ironisnya mereka bertemu di sini di Bali.

 Setelah sejumlah kegagalan bisnis, pada tahun 2012 dia menegosiasikan sewa sepuluh tahun di kios kecil di pasar lokal, membayar sewa £ 650 setahun dan memulai kios buahnya.

 Dia memiliki tiga anak sekarang. Memikirkan masa depan, mereka menabung untuk membeli tanah dan membangun rumah.

 Dia adalah seorang muslimah yang tertutup. Dia mengatakan orang Bali sangat toleran. Meski mayoritas Hindu, dia merasa sangat disambut dan diterima di sini.

 Kontras dengan India populis Modi atau dengan obsesi absurd Anglo-Saxon dengan 'politik identitas'.

 (Mungkinkah Politik Identitas dan "Batalkan Budaya" tidak lebih dari montase untuk menyesatkan dan mengalihkan perhatian dari masalah dunia nyata yang dihadapi Inggris - perangkat untuk membagi-dan-memerintah dan mempertahankan kekuasaan?)

 Di semua acara, semua orang tampaknya rukun bersama dan pulau berpenduduk enam juta lebih orang itu kembali makmur. Perekonomian pulau ini hampir seluruhnya bergantung pada pariwisata. Begitu populernya pulau itu sehingga Otoritas Turis harus melindungi lingkungan dan infrastruktur wisata serta merancang cara untuk membatasi jumlah pengunjung.

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BULLSZ BLOOD AND WHISKY

20 May 2023

Strange tale of a village sacrificing a buffalo, drinking its blood (with a little whisky...) through bamboo pipes, in an animist rite to stay on friendly terms with the gods. Everyone happy. Quite dramatically shows what we were like before religion, culture, almost before language, certainly before history : that's what we were like then and that is what we are still like today, underneath the veneer.

And by the way, don't think this is just some ancient ritual - this happens every year in a village lost up in the mountains.

What the artist Sornchai Phongsa is trying to do - and succeeding amazingly - is show how these primitive people, who are our ancestors, negotiated with what they thought were the gods everywhere present who could step on them or help them on their way.

And the other thing the artist is trying to show is how these same folk dealt with the arrival of Buddha in their region, because Buddha is about one God only and He isn't here all around us, He's up there in some kind of happy heaven.

He certainly succeeded on his first objective and we all had a pretty good understanding of what it must have been like, that party in the village sacrificing the buffalo, drinking its blood and of course having a good time with local Thai whiskey.

Actually just a point of detail but the meat we ate was raw, uncooked, and we could not eat until the candles lit at the outset of the ceremony had burnt down fully, because in that time the gods were supposed to take what they wanted first.

*On May 20, DOGMA YARD

opens at Gallery Seescape*

 18.00 - Gallery Seescape invites you to see the exhibition “Dogma yard” by Thai contemporary artist Sornchai Pongsa.  His art connects history, beliefs, religion, ghosts, spirits and human social behavior.

 Explore a negotiating environment where past behavior is connected to the present.  To find reasons for the conflict between the Buddha and the ghost.

 https://www.facebook.com/events/958984688565592

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HANSON FOR PRESIDENT

14 May 2023

https://youtu.be/0r0m4UCPKHw

Hanson is a classical scholar and so his starting point is governance and from the times of the Romans and the Greeks and he lauds the middle class as the backbone of citizenship because of its independence and entrepreneurship, thus can fearlessly and objectivly counsel the leadership.

He turns to the successes that California enjoyed in the past. These were its public works which supported a thriving independent middle class business community: the reservoirs, the bridges, the airports, the schools and universities.

Then he compares that to the situation today with its high taxes, homelessness, a middle-class that can no longer compete, that is leaving and being replaced by immigrants and the costs of assimilating them. He talks of the poverty that has replaced wealth and the ignorance that gas replaced learning. He talks of the financing of the poor by transferring money from the middle class, approved by the elite as they are not affected.

And finally he laments the passing of the middle class completely. They have been written out, leaving an unstable, what he calls "medieval binary", exactly what his Greek and Roman examples wanted most to avoid.

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MESSAGE TO ZELINSKY

13 May 2023

Message to the current govt of Ukraine

==========

Perhaps if you had implemented Minsk II, or just not shelled the Donbas for eight years, or simply allowed the Russian majority in the East - build by Russia 250 years ago - to live their lives without forbidding them their language and culture.

If you'd shown respect for the diversity that was your citizenship.

But you behaved to antagonise and humiliate, you ignored UN resolutions, you kow-towed to the Americans' love of war when peace was offered you.

You threatened your neighbour's security, his existence even.

And now you're surprised when your big neighbour finally loses his patience with you and moves in to protect his own? Really?

Tell this to the families of the 250,000 who've lost their loved ones and breadwinners. You sacrifice your citizens and soon you will lose the country you say you so love. I don't believe anyone who loved their country and their people could be so foolish.

Very foolish. Very foolish indeed. You are a very foolish, dishonest and corrupt leader.

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IS THIS UKRAINE'S COUNTER OFFENSIVE?

13 May 2023

Ref Bahkmut these last couple of days.

What happened was that there was clearly a Ukrainian attack. The Russian defence ministry says that the Ukrainians were repelled. The attacks seem to have been on a fairly large scale. They were probably more than probing-with-force attacks.

But if this was an attempted offensive then even if we allow for a degree of exaggeration from the Russian side, the offensive - if this was intended to be the start of some kind of Ukrainian defensive around Bahkmut -  the offensive appears at least for the moment to have been unsuccessful. The Ukrainians were pushed back and the Russian army defenses have held so far at least.

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UKRAINE AS PRACTISE BOXING RING

12 May 2023

Many readers wonder why the Russians haven't blown the bridges across the dnieper, as a defensive measure.

This weekend past, it looks like the Russians did blow some bridges, those connecting the South of Ukraine to Moldova and Romania. Presumably this is to stop any NATO troop movement into South East Ukraine.

Then as to the Dnieper bridges up to Dnipro and Kyiv. I guess the Russians have left them in place because they are waiting for the Ukrainian offensive. As the Ukrainian army crosses the river, so sufficient numbers at least, then the Russians could at this point blow the bridges to prevent retreat and kill the trapped Ukrainians.

Wasn't this a bit like what they have just done in Bakmut, their "meat grinder" strategy to slowly efface the enemy army? They left some roads open so that the Ukrainians could continue to file into the city and as they did so, the Russians killed them.

So seems like the Russians are playing a long game of protecting against a NATO invasion, trapping and wiping out the entire Ukrainian army; and there'll be times when the Russians withdraw in order to suck the Ukrainians in, then close the trap again and kill them.

So the new map, as conceived by Russian strategists, seems to include Odessa. Perhaps from the Russian point of view ideally the border would run from Kiev, South West to Moldova, to include at least Transnistria, leaving Lviv as capital of a client state that buffers Poland, a dmz to a very aggressive Poland or the New Ukraine as a place where West could meet East to fight, a boxing ring really for military training and competitions.

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TRUMP WANTS DEEP SPENDING CUTS

10 May 2023

Trump calls for US debt default in absence of ‘massive’ spending cuts - https://on.ft.com/44SnrRm via @FT

What areas can morally and practically be cut? 

Maybe focus on the cash retianed by those top te...how much of a dent would it make?

How to control congresspple and senators and get them of lobby interest bribes?

Well of course he is right. The US has no credibility with non-Western gov.ts who are welling out of the dollar and using their own currencies for mutual trade. Plus, if this debt isn't managed by the Treasury, it will be managed by the markets - it is what is happening and the US is heading for bankrupties way beyond the banking sector and a hard-landing recession.

The Fortune 500 is America's and probably the world's largest companies. Of the 500, the top ten have more cash than the bottom 400.  This tells how close to banktuptcy is America and with it Europe, Japan and Austastralasia.

Higher interest rates necessitate restructuring, which even then companies do not have the cash to pay. Plus, inflation will work through to reduced revenues and profits.

We will know it's a recession when unemployment starts to rise. At this point, the Fed will pivot - ie stop tightening, start printing and lower interest rates. You can guess the rest...

What areas can morally and practically be cut? Surely not Medicare, Social Security, Pensions? So where to find and how much?

Maybe focus on the cash retianed by those top te...how much of a dent would it make?

How to control congresspple and senators and get them of lobby interest bribes?

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9 MAY IS VICTORY DAY

9 May 2023

*Russia's contribution

27 million russians died to save europe from the nazis

Cannot overlook that, all praise Russia on its Victory Day 9 May.

I watched the sad pantomime when the Russian ambassador for Poland was prevented from laying a wreath at a cemetery to commemorate victory in WW2. I assume this demonstration was sanctioned by the Polish gov. They take every opportunity to provoke and humiliate Russia. Until the Ukraine war I didn't appreciate how many European countries.....Poland and all the Baltic states, Finland? .....hate Russia. It's a racial, maybe religious, thing, why hate the Russians? Is it the people, or their elite, who do the hating?

Nothing will change. Poland sees itself as a pre eminent European military power and hankers after some glory period from centuries past.

Likewise the Baltic states.

I guess Finland still thinks of the 1930s war and territory lost. It's not very West European. 

Frankly, for Russia to keep diplomatic ties with these countries is a waste of time. The Ukraine war has given them the excuse to be open on how they see Russia. Would we tolerate such racism in London, for example?

*Cultural genocide

Perhaps only oldies pause and think of the dead, the horrors of the war that occured in Russia. In the west it's ignored and time for a joke. If I read what's happening in the Baltics and Poland correctly, they are removing any trace of the Russians and what they accomplished in WW2. De-russification its called. As above, Russia is a civilised culture and should just cut off diplomatic relations from its more atavistic neighbours. There is no point.

*For the record

"As of 2021, there were nearly 900,000 ethnic Russians in the three countries, having declined from ca 1.7 million in 1989" Wiki.

Latvia is 25% Russian, half the pple living in Riga the capital are Russian. Estonia is a quarter Russian. This was Soviet Russification policy. Why do they now hate Russia? Do they, or is it just the elite?

While elites generally want to expand their power and wealth, generally they thrive on war and stop at nothing Ordinary folk - who stand to lose their loved ones, homes and jobs, prefer peace, freedom and stability.

*MSM

So a lot to evaluate when opening the newspapers or TV. I'm cautious of rhe stuff I read, it is largely propaganda to keep me on board and indoors.

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THE TRUE STORY OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE (PURE EVIL)

7 May 2023

This is the 1992 NATO expansion plan, by Brezinski, naming Ukraine...in 1992.

https://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/9709brzezinski.html

And here is the true story of NATO enlargement, very clearly told by Jeffrey Sachs  : offset 6'30" - 25'.

https://youtu.be/k_uyfb6OyZ8

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LAMB TAGINE IN CASABLANCA

5 May 2023

Looks absolutely delicious, I want some!!!

Lamb in Asia comes frozen from Australia and is not so tender. The tagine is a slow cook, so should produce melt-in-the-mouth meat full of aromatics.

In Morocco round about 10 in the morning, all the little street cafes would start parking small single-service tagines on beds of glowing carbon embers on the street outside the restau and begin the slow cook to lunch at midday.

So yummy.

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INVESTORS IN EURODOLLAR LAND ARE RUNNING FOR THE HILLS

5 May 2023

Since the GFC, QE tripled America's debt while keeping payments of interest flat.

Now the skies are full of chickens and black swans. America - by debt, inflation, inequality, social & political division, and war ( physical and economic) - is a complete catastrophe - as predicted here since a long time ago. 

Surely they can't be thinking of printing again? Yet cuts to social security and Medicare would send the people back to the White House. 

Already markets are panicking. The coupon for short-term US Treasuries is higher than corporate bonds and three-month T-bill rates are higher than one-month - this is markets saying they want more to hold the dollar through this debt-ceiling crisis. This really disorients calculations using the once "risk-free" rate. As proof, Standard & Poor’s have dropped America’s rating a notch - what if other rating agencies follow?

The entire world economy is built on credit and the starting point is the US Treasuries so-called risk-free rate. This is a bit more than just migrating the software code to new parameters. 

Biden and Trump have said they won't cut. Yellen at the Treasury is down to her last 30 billion and will have to prioritise interest payments over welfare cheques, swelling the Trumpist camps in the barrios. Powell at the Fed pushes forward with hikes, resists "the Fed pivot", continues to defend his mandate on "stable" prices and employment - is inflation really cooling? Pushing the workforce into unemployment to reduce wage and consumption demand doesn't seem to be working - is this because fewer and fewer are active in the labour market?

The RoW (ie eurodollar land) knows all this and is running for the hills!

Have you heard of Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio? ... Coming up next ...

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DEBT, GOVERNMENT AND BANKING, 13TH RECESSION HAS STARTED

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STATE OF THE ECONOMY

3 May 2023

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/02/half-of-americas-banks-are-already-insolvent-credit-crunch/

AEP's articles always entertain like puppy dogs, but seem all over the place to me, it's v hard to find the logical thread, although only an economist could really pick them apart, so I'm left scratching my head - the language tickles but, you're left none the wiser.

If there is a thread to the article, then it's that half of American banks are underwater, effect; Fed over-stimulation of the economy, the cause.

But this is just not true. Those banks are only underwater because of rising interest rates which have lowered the value of safe government bonds *but* at maturity date there is no such problem.

You can't say it's a problem caused by the dollar being the world's reserve currency because QE all started off in Japan and the Euro is similarly affected. 

Obviously lending out the same depositor's dollar multiple times - what is called fractional banking - can only magnify the vulnerabilities, but then what is a capitalist financial system about if it isn't this?

If interest rates were determined by the market, and not by the fed, then where would we be? Well, rates would be high - maybe 12% - ie borrowing would be expen, there'd be little money for investment and consumption spending, and so we'd be living in an economy with little growth and a lot of unemployment.

So the fed artificially stimulates by buying up assets by QE or OMO, which are the same thing more or less, and this reduces the cost of money below the market rate and increases the money supply. 

When all is said and done, this is bound to lead to inflation and devaluation of the currency.

What happens as best I can understand, is that

1. rising interest rates kill off people borrowing money and it starts in the housing sector.

2. So if the housing sector is stamped on, then demand suffers,

3. and if demand suffers and money is expensive then profits shrink,

4. and if companies see that their profits are shrinking they lay people off, and you get rising unemployment and falling stock markets 

...and all of that is the road to what is called a recession.

... but if it's managed properly without excessive government interference, then it's just the business cycle.

https://youtu.be/PzCVj7SOx_I

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