THE ROAD TO A NEW WORLD ORDER

10 March 2023

It is a really complicated lineup, global international relations. 

After the last war, America formalised its Order. An rules-based international foundational Order consists of three things. First, there is a set of fundamental values - Liberalism in this case  Second, a set of rules and the institutions to enforce them. Third, this is backed by a reserve trading currency and a military. The purpose of the American Order is to keep the world a safe place for trade and assure its hegemony.

Initially, this Order had to contend with a peer competitor, the "Soviet menace". Then in 1989, the Soviet Union collapsed, America had triumphed, and gree from peer competition America could switch its focus to sowing its vision of a borderless world where democratic nations could freely trade and their peoples enjoy peace, freedom, security and prosperity - basically, keep the shipping lanes open and America the top dog. American could now go where it wanted, evangelise its culture of freedom democracy and donuts, enjoy the attractiveness of the dollar to other nations. America could lead "the free world" and draw in power and money to an imperium founded in financial and military domination.

 to now having overcome one rival in 1991, the emergence of a new rival for America and re-emergence of its old chosen enemy to again contain.

We still think in terms of blocks : America + Europe + 1st island ring v. Asia or "the global South". But is this reality?

Because if you look objectively, you see this Western alliance, strong and unified - but then what is America doing wrecking its ally's economy blowing up the pipeline, demanding sanctions on Germany that limit its imports and soon sanction to reduce trade with China? - Turkey in NATO and soon in BRICS, Mexico will be joining - The Hse of Saud buying petrol from Russia, security from America, imports from China and, very significantly in a deal brokered by China, at the moment taking down the fence 1,400 years old with Iran - an India that won't take sides - the belt road and rail which is a dollar-free zone where most of the planet live and trade - the increasing power and membership of the SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

?

Outside The West we see a fragmented world, a world where nation-states determine their own interests on a multitude of subjects and make independent transactions with each other accordingly, so a world of nation-states truly coming of age. It is not unipolar, not bipolar and not multi-polar, only the West remains as a block, the rest is a net of emancipted individual nations buying and vying with each other.

Will Europe go this way? Fragment? How relevent is the EU, is it doing its job and how long will it last?

So in my take on this mess, there is a sense and a direction. The world had one Order, that split, now it is fragmenting, the old Order isn't giving up without a fight,  maybe we are on the way to nation-states re-coalescing round a new world Order?