5 February 2023
Nuclear will happen if Russia concludes it will otherwise cease to exist. This would be in Ukraine itself, only in Ukraine, and in this case the West would not respond with nuclear, imho.
Unless America re-prioritises this conflict (on its own initiative, America withdraws or negotiates), there is the risk that America use nuclear. This could provoke a Russian nuclear response outside Ukraine, and we'd be in WW3 and incineration.
An intriguing possibility is if America could take out all Russian nuclear before Russia had time to respond. Intriguing, but impossible.
Neither side can, currently, accept a defeat; plus, there is no "off-ramp" or way out without loss of face.
The most promising conclusion would be a negotiated split of Ukraine between Russia, Ukraine and possibly Poland. Zelensky - front-line responsibility for the conduct of the war - would have to go, a verifiable neutrality with balance of power installed, and very sadly Ukraine would have to accept the loss or injury of perhaps 200,000 of its citizens, as well as a nation-state with rump-staus only and probably dependent on Moscow.
What to do?
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