WE ARE RULED BY GANGSTERS

30 December 2023

https://www.youtube.com/live/dlKuQ3r3Mwk?si=xSu817r0XOfgdB7L

Exactly, it's not so much that our leadership are incompetent, it's that they are corrupt - it is the practice of war that they love because it's good for business.

But we want freedom and prosperity and we know that comes from peace and productivity and planning.

So how is it that it's the bad people that get to the top? Because the system must be wrong, it isn't delivering. All we get is mass murder, theft, lies and impoverishment. Repeated foreign policy failure, the fear of regional conflagration or World War, the threat of recession or depression, intl pariah status, nothing seems to discourage this band of gangsters : 

"One failure after another, one disaster after another, eight trillions of dollars down the drain".

Not while they are making money ... you can hear the clickety-clack of counting money when they're talking.

As Erdogan says, Netanyahu is worse than Hitler, Israel takes from America to lock up and torture these poor people and our leaders queue to praise them. Netanyahu's dream is of an ethnic cleansing and an apartheid state, based on words written 2,500 years ago that he falsely claims promise a Jewish state and the appearance of god on earth. This is so mad! How can this be?

We thought democracy was the best system of government, but it has failed us and corporatism - rule by corporations, corporate elites, oligarchs - has supplanted rule by the people. We are no better than the autocratic states we criticise. Why aren't these guys chased out of town, asks JS? It's because they own the town, like in some cowboy film.

We need insurrection, to storm Congress and the H o P, take them away in chains to the guillotine !!!

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN.

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A NEW POLITICAL DYNASTY FOR INDONESIA

1 December 2023

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-constitutional-court-ruling-democracy-political-dynasty-joko-widodo-gibran-rakabuming-raka-3851566

READERS' REACTIONS

Some reader reaction:

"Very interesting article about the Supreme Court's reversal of the under 40 ruling."

 

"It is a bit worrying when you see relatives bending the rule of law."

ANALYSIS

The court ruling didn't lower the min. age requirement, which is still 40, but it did open up opportunities for younger people who have executive governance experience. I can't see much wrong with that, on the face of it, except to say this could have been a change initiated and approved in Parliament rather than in the Supreme Court.

It is also worth pointing out that the youngest prime minister in the UK was William Pitt the Younger and he took over at the age of 23 and the youngest president in the world has ever seen was Emmanuel macron who came to power at the age of 39.

As to powerful dynasties let's not forget the Kennedy clan! And surely tinkering with the minimum age requirement or other qualifications is not the way to prevent or encourage a Dynasty. Dynasties are organised to improve their own lot, but aren't all politicians like that and shouldn't there be anti-corruption legislation and its effective implementation to deal with that ? I mean, if you fear dynasties then look elsewhere for a means to control them.

CONCLUSION

The minimum age requirement to be president of Indonesia is about finding candidates with sufficient experience and wisdom. Well, if people under 40 have proven wisdom and experience then why not let them run? If you stop these younger people from running, then you're excluding potentially great leaders like our William Pitt the Younger!

And finally, if the people don't like the idea of a dynasty then it is the third largest democracy in the world and they've only got to say "Jokowi you're joking!".

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COLUCHE FOR PRESIDENT

15 December 2023

Coluche was one of those rare people where a single name is enough. He was one of the world's greatest comedians but unlike Billy Connolly his language couldn't translate outside his country of origin.

In 1980, he decided to run for president of France and he had many original ideas on his program: there would be no work for anyone, there would be no school for the children, all drugs would be legalised and money abolished.

In 1980 there was no internet and Snail mail was the only way to communicate in writing so kaluche wanted all the stamps issued to have either a picture of a fanny or an asshole, so that when lick the stamp ...

He was a complete outsider and his appeal was to all the people who had no voice so I suppose today, you'd call him a populist and the nearest you get today is Trump, although I think Trump is rather more vulgar.

Notice to the population

 COLUCHE CANDIDATE

 I call the lazy, the filthy, the drug addicts, the alcoholics, the fags, the women, the parasites, the young, the old, the artists, the jailbirds, the dykes, the apprentices, the blacks, the pedestrians, the Arabs, the French , the long-haired, the crazy, the transvestites, the former communists, the convinced abstainers, all those who do not count for politicians to vote for me, to register in their town hall and to spread the news.

 ALL TOGETHER TO FUCK THEIR ASS  WITH

 Coluche

 The only candidate who has no reason to lie.

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COMMUNICATION SKILLS FOR POLITICIANS - THE EXAMPLE OF PUTIN

15 December 2023

However much people here in The West hate Putin, the president of the Russian Federation, some of it must surely be to do with his success in bringing Russia back from the dead these last 20 years.

Today, let's take a look at how he does it - and why. 

(If you've read the previous piece on livingintheair.org on basic communication skills that will be a help in understanding the technical side of Putin's communication skills.)

Why does he do it?

Apart from all the usual vision, planning and execution stuff (subject of earlier articles on livingintheair.org), he takes a great deal of trouble to communicate with his people and create a sense of unity, belonging and optimism. Opinion polls give him 80% - that's amazing if true. 

He will first of all set the goals or objectives of his communication. Then he will identify his audience. With objectives and sensibilities of his audience in mind, he will now assemble the winning arguments.

First, the politician seeks the support of the people he fears the most: his own people, those who have the power to unseat him.

Second, the successful politician wants to master the international environment. The politician inhabits an anarchic system, ie a system of International Relations (IR) where there is no recourse to a higher authority. If you combine being on your own, with the uncertainty that comes from not knowing what is in the mind of your neighbours, then you can understand that Security (secure from invasion, secure in your sovereignty) is the number one concern. Security comes mainly from diplomatic and military means, of which the most important are the communication skills of the Diplomat.

How does he do it?

Putin has these regular press conferences where he talks to the nation. He uses the opportunity of these progress reports to the people, his audience, to run through the history of Russia and the character of its people.

This is what we so sorely miss in the West. Our leaders seem unwilling to do other present current tactics.

Blank out the past to start again

Regular reviews of progress are something that is highly desirable, but we cannot do in the West because we no longer have a single identity or character, we don't have a unifying culture. Additionally, we are ashamed of, and seem to be forever trying to rub out or forget, our history and our civilisation. 

The self-doubt of The West

What is wrong with our history or civilisation? What did the West do that it should reproach itself? How has the West fared, from a Security and Moral perspective,compared with other historic civilisations?

It seems to me that the elite is forever trying to weaken or distract its greatest threat - its own people - away from important matters like public finance, economics, class and abuse of power. It is almost as if the governing elite is trying to make "Tabula Rasa" of the past, a "blank slate" on which it can paint and engineer a rootless, passive and obedient slave class.

It's a pretty barren and frightening landscape that western leaders have created for their peoples. Compare this with the rising prosperity and optimism that Putin generates by his communications and actions.

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COMMUNICATION SKILLS 101

15 December 2023

This is a technical piece on basic communication skills, with an emphasis on skills needed for success in the office.

First, let's take a look at key communication skills. Once we have set this frame, let's look more closely at a responsibility assignment matrix (RAM) for determining roles within a project team, your project teams.

Effective communication skills 

Effective communication skills are crucial for success in the office, if you want to enhance your ability to work collaboratively, minimise misunderstandings, contribute to a positive and productive work environment and ... get a pay rise and promotion.

Key skills include:

1. Clear Verbal Communication

   - Expressing ideas clearly and concisely.

   - Using the right tone, emphasis and language for each situation.

2. Active Listening

   - Paying attention to others.

   - Responding thoughtfully to demonstrate understanding.

3. Written Communication

   - Writing clear and coherent emails, reports, and documentation.

   - Ensuring proper grammar, spelling, and formatting - one idea per paragraph only & multiple paragraphs broken by white space for readability.

4. Non-Verbal Communication

   - Being aware of body language and facial expressions. (Funny remark it is more difficult to read the expressions of People who use botox or filler and thus difficult for you to respond.)

   - Projecting confidence and professionalism, in manner and appearance.

5. **Emotional Intelligence:**

   - Understanding and managing one's emotions.

   - Recognising and empathising with others' emotions.

   -  Try Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP),

a somewhat manipulative technique, particularly the use of "mirroring", all copying the body language of the other, for developing a rapport with people.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuro-linguistic_programming?wprov=sfla1

6. Adaptability

   - Adjusting communication style based on the audience.

   - Being open to feedback and willing to modify approaches.

7. Clarity and Conciseness

   - Conveying messages in a straightforward manner.

   - Avoiding unnecessary jargon or complexity, or introducing such language before using.

8. Conflict Resolution

   - Addressing conflicts calmly, unemotionally and constructively.

   - Seeking solutions that benefit all parties involved.

9. Collaboration

   - Fostering open communication within teams.

   - Encouraging the exchange of ideas and feedback.

  - Getting everyone on board.

10. Networking

    - Building and maintaining professional relationships.

    - Communicating effectively with colleagues, bosses and clients.

Some intermediate remarks

Please expand acronyms on first use in a message, or have a glossary

Use punctuation to improve readability

Check spelling, check structure before hitting send

Don't assume readers are clairvoyant, take time to contruct / edit before send, to be sure you are understood first time ( people will often be reluctant to ask for clarification so you should make sure they don't need to).

Be sure to understand the purpose of any message you send or receive and be sure to communicate clearly. Especially if you are talking, speak clearly and strongly, be structured, be concise !!!

Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM)

Communication skills are your absolute number one skill, both written and oral, listening and reading (rapid and summarising), (the four skills). If you are not confident that you are communicating efficiently and effectively, then take a communication skills course - this could be the most important thing you do in 2024.

Consult. Communicate before action with those who you want to motivate and involve in the action.

Inform. Inform those who must change as a result of an action in preparation for the happy implemention.

The RASCI

This is a typical version of a esponsibility assignment matrix (RAM). The people on your project RAM are the people with whom you exchange messages, it is about their roles...and yours: 

R - Responsible - the person who makes the change

A - Accountable - the person who gets the pay rise or the kick in the pants if it all goes right or wrong, probably your boss, your customer, your client, who agrees your plan and makes resources available

S - Support - those whom you can rely on for help getting the change made, like accountants or lawyers or IT or consultants

C - Consult - The people you talk to, to get information for your analysis and action plan

I - Inform - the people downstream who will have to operate the change on a regular basis, those who need to know

RASCI is your basic frame 101 for working in any team if you want to get things done. These are the roles people have and with whom you communicate.

Good to be clear in your head on your role and the role of the other people, before you do anything, before you start communicating.

RASCI - responsible accountable support consult inform.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_assignment_matrix

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THE TRIUMPH OF REASON OVER EMOTION

14 December 2923

I have always taken a "realistic" position on IR, but this growing world anger, and anger at home, the emotions or passions that drive everything, emotions esp anger seem more and more to be overriding reason and common sense.

Look at Gaza. Any analysis would say that Hamas has performed an almost miraculous feat in getting this decades-old conflict back at the top of the world's priorities, and that there is little to be gained from Israel's military intervention.

Nonetheless, Israel charges back in, hammer and tanks, because the people demand revenge and demand their government restore dueish superiority. (They demand of Netanyahu, even though it is his fiasco.)

You can kill the Hamas leadership, but you can't stop this movement which has the backing of the Palestinian people (about half theaccording, accordingto polls) - the leadership and the arms will only return.

So what's the point? Is it revenge? Or is it dissuasion - teach those civilians not to support an organisation dedicated to the destruction of Israel? Or is it driven by the Zionist Ideological vision of ethnic cleansing to create a greater Israel?

Seems to me it's purely emotional, the desire for revenge and to re-establish fear and respect of Israel in the neighborhood.

But there's no plan for "the day after". Gaza has been flattened - will the people of Gaza file out into the Sinai? 40 years in the desert stuff?

Or will something "unexpected" happen? Ok, the Arab elites would be happy to see the brutal destruction of Hamas, which is Muslim street Brotherhood that threatens Wahhabi power; but what about a changing mood in American and European public opinion, especially the young like us, who take sensible, if radical, positions; or the Evangelical Christians who apparently want all Jews to collect in Israel and wait for the Messiah? You see how mad and magical the emotions get.

And Ukraine was much the same story - the emotions seemed to be in the driving seat, the West took what it considers a moral position and for a long time that position was buoyed by the story around the initial defeat of the Russians, by the emergence of plucky Zelinsky on the world stage, we all remember his crowd thumping speeches, and by the heroic resistance of the courageous Ukrainian people. 

No one seemed to notice that actually Ukraine had made itself a most powerful enemy ("poked the bear in the eye with a sharp stick") and that the West's reserves were depleted, its army a paper tiger etc.

Some of us saw all that ... with a spot of help from Mearsheimer and Mercurios and the rest, because we took a realistic point of view, analysed the facts and were not influenced by public opinion or government propaganda. That is the starting point: analyst and consultant. In other words, we present an analysis and the customer, or the politicians, then frame it to their liking, give it Vision and Direction.

Surely Boris' visit to Ukraine last year was the triumph of hope and emotion over realism and reason. Far as I remember, the Western militaries were telling the politicians the score, but the politicians went ahead anyway and now there are half a million dead, Ukraine is flattened, the world economy split in two, debt piled up even higher and decline sped up. Thank you neocons and Boris 

(Brexit, Covid, Ukraine - what a total disaster Boris was, but he drew the crowds - shows how difficult it is to pursue realistic negotiations when you have a baying crowd in front of you, stoked up by neocon insecurities and harangued by the msm!).

Anyway to finish this piece on "The Triumph of Hope over Despair", or emotions over reason, we have reached actually the opposite: now reason has been proven right and it's "The Triumph of Despair over Hope" after half a million deaths in Ukraine, the utter failure of the offensive and a very cold winter ahead with the energy supplies knocked out. All of which is likely to finish off the people of Kiev. Similar script for Tel Aviv.

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GREAT POWER POLITICS

9 December 2023

https://youtu.be/FgHAEBMfHK8?si=MhKMlpCjRPV9cn4s

The Tragedy of Power Politics. 

This skillful interview contains many fresh insights from Professor John J. Mearsheimer.

The positive side of Nationalism can hold together a multicultural Liberal Society.

Aswhere a Liberal believes that a program of economic engagement will bring other states on board and into the fold of democratic countries, a Realist believes that in the absence of any hierarchy and in the uncertainty concerning your neighbours' intentions, Great Powers will be always vying with each other for dominance and control, just to ensure their survival.

In the 1990s when Russia was at its weakest, America chose containment rather than assistance. America could have helped Russia integrate into a new security architecture.

The unipolar moment lasted rather more than a moment, from 1991 to 2017, so younger people [born after 1972] today have no experience of the Cold War (1947 - 1991) and no one has experience of a multi-polar world (America, China, Russia, post 2017).

The Ukraine War started back in the 1990s when America was unchallenged and free to do as it pleased and attempt to convert the world to democracy and contain "the threat" from Russia. The Ukraine war is a vestige of the Cold War and a policy of NATO enlargement eastwards.

Today the West is in two cold wars, plus (not talked about here), the risk of The Middle East becoming the battleground for some very serious proxy wars.

The correct strategy would have been to work with Russia to knock out China, but this is a strategy for a multi-polar world and yet the war with Russia is a result of a unipolar world and unipolar thinking.

War between the three Great Powers is more likely in the South or East China Seas, or Taiwan, than in Central Europe, because the scale of the potential horror in Central Europe is unimaginably greater. The only hope of avoiding direct confrontation between the Great Powers is the threat that it may go nuclear.

The American foreign policy establishment, aka The Blob, calls the shots irrespective of the party in power on The Hill or the president in The White House. As proof, both Trump and Biden did a volte-face, faced with the limitations of their power vis-a-vis The Blob. [This is why many hark back to JFK's famous and powerful peace speech in June 1963 and believe that he was assassinated by The Blob.] Trump armed Ukraine. Biden went back on his promise of engagement. Next time will be no different. The reason - if you are a structuralist like Mearsheimer is that we are now in a multipolar world.

Can balance-of-power Realism work in a multipolar world to prevent war? There will be crises, there may be war, war will be hard to shut down once started, and it is easier to fight in Asia than Central Europe, but perhaps the threat of nuclear will deter....

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STRATEGY IN ACTION

8 December 2023

SUMMARY

This is an old block of flats that is no longer 

up to today's living standards. This is seriously affecting capital and rental values. One way to restore vale is to upgrade the outside and the public areas and facilities, but this would require more money than many of the owners are prepared to put in.

Therefore the problem is how to convince these owners to join and fund a rehab program.

First we need some data : we need to know by how much the building is undervalued and whether the proposed redesign and rehab could pay for itself.

If the case is proven but the proposal won't be passed at the Residents Association, a strategy is needed to split the no vote. Those decidedly for or against can be put to one side, in order to focus on the group of undecideds. An issue which would split this group can be created. Thus a majority in favour of the proposal can be created. 

It is also necessary to bring on board those who do not have the means to pay for the work.

For example, a subsidised loan could be offered, the cost of the subsidy could be added back to project financing costs and shared.

Then a campaign could be organised to canvas support with the waiverers, which if successful will mean the work could go ahead.

PROBLEMS / REQUIREMENTS

There is a problem, because although this block of 120 apartments is old, 30 years old, it is nonetheless in one of the best areas of the city, near to a couple of embassies; the rooms are large by modern-day standards; this is a good location near protected forest, fresh air off the nearby river; opposite a pretty place of worship with a recent by-law requiring any new-build be low-rise; and yet entertainment too a short walk away, being central to the principal gate to this walled city; giving a "rus-in-urbe" feel; and what's more, despite complaints of noise from ongoing apartment modernisations, it is a relatively quiet block with a peaceful mixed population 50-50 local and foreign; service and land charges are low; the property is well run along the "rule of 3Es" - economy, efficiency, effectiveness.

So you would think an attractive premium investment.

But no! The problem is that the per-square-foot (PSF) retail market value, buy or rent, is about half or perhaps 2/3 of the cost PSF in more recent post-2010 blocks. This block cannot compete with modern living standards, it seems.

And yet for these recent blocks, the apartments are smaller; the insulation is less; locations are less favourable, sometimes out of town; charges are certainly higher for a similar standing.

So what can be done about this? 

Evidently the solution is to upgrade the quality of the built environment ie a rehab project, starting with external dec.s, followed by upgrades to the lobby and other public areas; and publicise this improvement to attract warranted attention, increase demand; and obtain more inward investment and up property values and returns.

GOAL

That is the goal then : to raise capital and rental values, from a program of building upgrade, to be publicised on social media. Noting that any proposal for change must be approved by the well-run Residents Association, aka "The Committee".

RISK

The difficulty getting this through the committee is that many of the membership and the committee itself are viscerally opposed to any capital expenditure projects beyond schedules of preventive maintenance and the basic minimum necessary to meet legal requirements.

How to convert a majority against change into a majority in favour of change?

STRATEGY

To get this public areas rehab project through the committee, one way could be to

1. get a list of all owners and tenants and with the Property Manager if available, evaluate the likely attitude of each person, splitting the list into three groups :

- those who would support the project

 - those who would certainly oppose 

- and then a middle group of doubters / undecideds

Focus on the undecideds. (We have little time, there is no point in spending time and stirring up feelings on those already strongly committed.)

2. Find an issue which would split the doubters into those for the proposal and those against.

3. Thus, if you could persuade the committee to consult owners, and you have successfully split the doubters, then you would stand a good chance of your proposal being approved.

What issue could split the undecideds? Who is this group?

CAMPAIGN PLAN

A possible way forward to discuss with fellow activists:

If you know the PSF cost of the rehab, and could value PSF the post-project, then you have a cost-benefit analysis and you know the PSF cost that can be charged back to owners, by majority agreement.

This CBA and chargeback should sell the proposal. (For info, owners and tenants have equal representaion on the Cttee.)

But what if it doesn't? What if the committee doesn't approve the expenditure? What if some owners refuse to pay their share? Here are the sticking points.

A solution might be to offer a subsidy on a loan the Committe can organise, that some owners might need if they are to be convinced them. But offer only to people who've been here for a minimum five years, or who have an income below a certain threshold, or whatever criteria will create a division.

And simply include the cost of this subsidy back in the project financing costs.

Now you can canvas the undecideds, offering them a helpful low-cost subsidy (at zero capex) that will tilt the vote at a Special AGM.

IMPLEMENTATION

to be continued ...

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DESPAIR AT THE FUTURE OF THE WEST

4 December 2023

Just to watch our foolish leaderships throw away what were once good hands. Fills me with despair. 

What can we do with our elites except remove them, how to do that? You judge a tree by its fruits. I don't want their media, their propaganda - I pay for and judge the meal in a restaurant, not the chef!

And if we don't, if we can't get them out of office? What I think about is the real value of my savings - whether inflation and currency collapse, or deflation and stagnation, my savings accumulated over my working life are worth less and less.

The only bright spots have been beating the index (so what? It's real returns that count), and gold (up 6% this year). Plus living in a decent, stable, affordable society, albeit as an outsider.

But the downside is continued destruction of my purchasing power, my culture and my sons' community where they live, drifting into govt.s of control, plus other strengthening foreign centres of power are going to take advantage of Europe and the USA more and more.

UPDATE 5 DECEMBER

It is not you and I that are going to change the world, we've had our chance.

Now it is the turn of the milleniums and gen Z.

But what will they do? Re-invent the past? Throw it over? 

Or perhaps they think they've done it with this Woke nonsense. So we will have another generation to wait?

As those the initiative is with the West! The Russians are rolling in while we make our plans. The Chinese have caught us all up in their web of Belts and Roads. The Americans won't be coming to the rescue any time soon, they've given their horses to the gypsies!

NATO is a paper tiger, Europe is like the Holy Roman Empire before Napoleon invaded, all chocolate box armies and parliaments of stuffed shirts.

You and I saw through this parody years ago! 2008 was it!?

UPDATE 6 DECEMBER

I can confirm from the macro-economics side of my life that companies making alcoholic drinks see their sales rise in times of depression, doubtless more drug abuse too, food abuse, 

declines in the mental and physical health of the people.

So we can expect higher suicide rates too. 

As a result of "the decline of the West". Indeed, we see all around us the decline of western peoples' living standards and the health of the nations.

In fact, a bit of reflection on the ticker-tape of history, the rise and fall of great empires, we see we are in actual historical fact witnessing the usual doom loop. 

Elites are manipulating governments to enrich themselves, 

they are making war on foreign elites thinking they can expand their power and wealth by pillaging their neighbours,

and through standard soothsayer media they spread propaganda at home and abroad to cover this up and keep the populus on board.

The decline is not just material, it's also in our values, which includes our faith in our system of government, ie in democracy itself. This is what happens, and it is entirely predictable, it is what links are past and our present to our future.

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

We need to be far more doubting of govt news channels, far more discriminating of who we listen to, and more trusting of our own judgements. The aren't quick fixes to these kind of problems and we should not be brow-beaten by governments into believing that there are - it takes a 20 year long haul to effect profound radical change after which we can expect stability and peace, at least for a long while, during which education and new knowledge & understanding develops, and material wealth increases starting from the treasure taken by the New Empire from the Old.

                           This is the circle of history.

It takes tough times for the hero promising  redemption to emerge. But to get into this sorry state it requires the weak man or men or gov.ts - this is the prerequisite of the strong man, who is the hero. Myths - many cycles of history condensed into a story - going back to the Greeks and doubtless before tell us this story. The hero starts out weak as he has not yet developed his powers. Then through a series of difficult trials with his adversaries he develops strength and skills. He then uses these to overhaul the system and bring peace and prosperity to his people.

Meaning that from all this Mess and Injustice we can expect populist leaders to step forward, wanting to force through tough ideological cleanup programmes of action on root causes. Only outsiders can clean up this mess, the power elite will never voluntarily let go. Outsiders from within or without.

How will these new leaders seize power? They will do it in the usual way: by inciting the populus - mainly younger people who are uninvested and despairing and think they are bullet-proof - to take to the streets.

We can see that the elite won't give up power and wealth, it is the height of naivety to imagine that radical reform can be voted through the Ballot Box, so what else can the people do? 

It is only utopian reform or rebirth that can deal with the final results of greed. Greed that is satisfied in the fiscal process. The people stay happy with welfare and propaganda, while the elite purloin the wealth of the country through corrupt and mediocre politicians. But eventually, it comes to a point where there's so much mess and putrification that it needs radical change. This change can be brought about from within or from without. 

Which is better - radical overhaul from within, or radical overhaul from without? The former is revolution. The latter is war or migration.

"Without" meaning on account of internal weakness, a country gets taken over and becomes part of someone else's empire, a rising empire. 

That's history, it is a circle with knowledge and technology as the only straight lines of progress. 

Knowledge from which our elites understand sweet nothing. 

History from which our elites understand sweet nothing.

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WAR : THE WAY FORWARD

30 November 2023

https://youtu.be/BJx7xoR70h4?si=3Kc6mbqVO1fHcSuM

You've read the panchatantra and understand that war is the natural condition of our species. In  different way, Jan Oberg is saying the same thing from a different point of view. 

https://youtu.be/D_3itcQ9wqQ?si=WuYYi-z1M0ZXLVRq

Salman Rushdie too.

https://www.youtube.com/live/2cmAISDWnL4?si=r6byPknnAf3w6ty4

Mearsheimer is as perplexed as all normally-adjusted people. Despite Rushdie's condensing a thousand years of human  history and wisdom into a hundred words, noone has an answer to making or finding peace today.

1. I follow the news. It seems the neocon narratives are being exposed everywhere across geopolitical histories, eg Minsk and Istanbul are now being unpicked, Israel is seen as having no plan, only a thirst for vengeance's plan. 

The American people won't be had again and next year could present a surprise peace candidate. That's a realistic option and hope.

America doesn't have the initiative on the battlefield in Ukraine, it looks pretty obvious that Ukraine will be fairly and squarely beaten, and with them NATO and America. This will be a sea change for the West and for Russia too. Russia will undoubtedly incorporate Ukraine as it has done with Belarus into its family of nations...Putin is eyeing Transnistria incidentally, something new.

2. The Middle East seems to be overtaking events in Ukraine in the race to see who can get us to WW3 first.

We could see the Arab nations surrounding Israel finally running out of patience and overrunning that place, dragging in America with its fleet anchored offshore. 

Possibly starting in Syria: if America starts in Syria, where it has illegally positioned its forces, then Russia will be affected and may take action; if Russia takes action to defend its interests in Syria and is directly attacked by America, then this will bring in Iran and China.

3. As to Israel and its future, there is no way that Israel could ever accept a two-state solution as it would lose its strategic hinterland in the West Bank and the next day be overrun by its neighbours. It's only options for its security and survival are do peace or die, even though this is not accepted in Israel and never has been. 

I would like to know, how come if there are so many clever people in Israel, they have not learnt how to get on with their neighbours and they do not understand that it's a binary world they accept peace or they die in war.

4. We need a change of leadership and a European security conference and a new Bretton Woods, if we are to avoid the next World War.

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PANCHATANTRA STORIES

30 November 2023

Have you heard of the Panchatantra stories?

I hadn't until I listened to Salman Rushie

https://youtu.be/D_3itcQ9wqQ?si=Z19zsmSlj97KoKnz

https://chat.openai.com/share/bb113c9f-af65-4a40-a6a8-ad48ec4b8a6c

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LOY KRATONG

27 November 2023

The river is full of tiny "kraton" they are called, little mini boats made from a slice of banana trunk, with a candle and a couple of sticks of incense and a few flower heads. 

It's like an Armada of tiny ships floating down the river, there are hundreds and hundreds of them. 

People go to the temple opposite my block to "make merit". Temples are very often built on land by the river. The faithful say a prayer and push out their mini banana boat.

Meanwhile, the sky is filled with these "sky lanterns", a squadron of floating "kourms" they"re called, slowly floating across in bobbing formation.

All set to the continuous crackle of fireworks.

All very lovely.

But the streets are 100% rammed with people, scooters and cars, all over the roads and pavements, no room at all.

Ron and Steward, who run my regular restau called OMG, are beside themselves - they haven't taken a salary in four years!, they live off their UK pension and feed their Thai partners and kids. But now, this will be the third day on which they take 60,000 baht - it's a lot.

Can you imagine what it's like ?!

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REASONS FOR DOLLAR DEVALUATION

24 November 2023

Government debt 33t just a shade below 140% of GDP.

Total country debt a shade below 400% of GDP. Debts that will never be fully paid.

Unfunded government liabilities is at $212 trillion.

$1.8 trillion student loans seeing increasing default, the $2.7 trillion auto and credit card loans likewise.

Commercial real estate collapsing.

Soaring zombie companies bankruptcies.

CLO defaults,

Small and medium regional banks in serious trouble.

Collapsing household savings.

Over stretched household balance sheet.

Stagnant population growth and aging population.

Shortage of skilled workers.

Low labor participation rate.

Stagnant work week hours.

Inflation eating up wage increases.

Sticky inflation.

Reversing fiscal and monetary largesse.

Recession probably already here.

Political chaos next year.

Want more reasons for US dollar devaluation?

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BIDEN CORRUPTION - HOW IS IT BIDEN IS STILL POTUS?

16 November 2023

How come this charlo is still POTUS?

is.gd/hHPhuZ

"Our mission statement is to ensure the efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability of the federal government and all its agencies. We provide a check and balance on the role and power of Washington - and a voice to the people it serves."

The detail summarised:

In February 2014, a Russian Oligarch Sent $3.5 Million to a Shell Company Associated with Hunter Biden and Devon Archer: Russian billionaire Yelena Baturina transferred $3.5 million to Rosemont Seneca Thornton, a shell company.

Hunter Biden was initially hired by Burisma to work as counsel for the company, and Pozharsky and Zlochevsky met with Hunter Biden at a conference in Lake Como in Italy where they decided Hunter Biden would work on the board of directors with Devon Archer.

In April 2014, a Kazakhstani Oligarch Wired the Exact Price of Biden’s Sportscar to a Bank Account Used by Archer and Biden: In February 2014, Hunter Biden met with Kenes Rakishev at a Washington, D.C. hotel.

Hunter Biden received millions of dollars in payments from Yelena Baturina, Burisma, and Kenes Rakishev.

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IS WESTERN SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL AND UKRAINE SUCCEEDING?

13 November 2023

Things are looking very bad. The Russians are butchering the Ukrainians, and along comes Hamas with a jolly trap for Israel. Israel fell in straight away so now we have another bloodbath.

The circumstances are horrific, although this is a military confrontation. What might happen when hostilies cease?

Let's take a look at what these ongoing massacres mean through three lenses. The scale is global: these conflicts are local, between nation-states, almost you might see them as civil wars, but they regional and most importantly, global repercussions. Second, the timeline started five centuries ago: today, we are looking at the West in decline, the unravelling of colonisation. Of course thirdly, there is a moral dimension: we should ask if supporting these causes is ethically correct as our actions will impact our credibility in the negotiating and implementation phases of resolving these conflicts.

THE DECLINE OF THE WEST

Back in the late 60s, we had Edward Säid who captured the West's attitude to Asia in the wor "Orientalism". Orientalism is the idea that the Middle East and Asia was one clump of mysterious underdevelopment that would never change. But now after five centuries of running their worlds, and ober 2,500 years of a culture dating back to the Greeks, it is the turn of "the Global South" to look at "Westernism" and see our decline, see the failures of America and NATO against Russia, see the wasted trillions in failed foreign adventures. 

Meanwhile China finishes off its belt and road and Russia re-industrialises.

America is no longer the "indispensable nation", it has failed at policing conflict situations, indeed it has created them, it has no manifest destiny or ability to rule over us in the name of global security. It listens to no-one, it just sends in the military (rarely its own).

INJUSTICE

Not just bloodbaths and Western decline,  once we were the beacon of justice and fair play, and now we indict Putin while Natanyahu gets a free pass, we sanction Russia for non-respect of Intl law while Israel flouts 70 years of UN resolutions. What was once a boundary dispute is now a war of religion, a clash of civilisations: in the one a negotiated solution was possible, but Islam demands total surrender and Zionism is colonisation of biblical lands for the coming of the messiah. Before 7 October we could have fixed what is for the Arabs and Persians united, the mother of battles to come. But look now at the dogs we've woken up with such complacent and brutal kicks, to the point where now it is uncontrollable. And then there's "the enemy within".

GLOBAL 

It's not obvious that ordinary people nor our elites truly realise that the West is now in the minority and facing an increasingly organised and powerful global majority. These aren't just "talking points". It's not just the Middle East, the Arabs and the Persians: now it's Africa and the rest of Asia and Russia too. It means the West cannot force through to the touchline. America can no longer do what it has been trying to do since the last war which is force its internal policies onto the rest of the world.

Here's a tape of a speech by indonesia's representative to the UN. Indonesia! Who normally wouldn't say boo to a goose!

ONLY SOLUTION IS MILITARY

It is not just military. It's not 48, 67 or 73. Today Israel is risking its homeland, sure, and losing the moral battle, the battle of ideas. Netanyahu has no plan that we know of other than his own salvation, his promise to keep Israel safe is false, and he is up against an organised and global enemy with ideology, strategy, plan, actions and results. 

So it is a time for diplomacy, cooperation, working to find agreed solutions. The military is not the end, it is in service to politics and diplomacy. But I don't think there's anyone in Washington who could state what is the role of a diplomat. I don't think they understand diplomacy. And their goal of world domination is madness these days, I mean ... isn't that obvious? Same same for Israel's revenge.

Because the Middle East had been quiet, as Jake Sullivan observed, doesn't mean that the Israel-Palestine conflict wasn't ruminating away. But even if America would agree to a two-state solution, there are no moderate voices in Israel nor Gaza to lead the negotiations - they are dead or radicalised. And even if a two-state solution were agreed and the 700,000 illegal settlers in the West Bank were cleared things have come to a pretty pass and I think the Arab nations would wipe out the lesser Israel the day after it was reformed, because America will be too weak to back it.

ISRAEL CANNOT SUCCEED ITS MISSION

More practically, the aim of the Israeli operation in Gaza is to destroy Hamas. Really? There's no way they can pull this off unless they commit genocide and kill all Palestinians in Greater Israel.

THE RESULT LONG-TERM WILL BE MORE TERRORISTS AND LESS SECURITY

For each Hamas member that they kill, they create ten more.

This operation gets revenge but doesn't improve Israel's security problem. It just unites the Arab world and the Global Majority against Israel and The West.

The number one priority of any country is its security, but this operation will only reduce Israeli security. 

America's top generals have come through the fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and they know that the longer this goes on, the more children and women especially that are killed, the more terrorists are recruited.

THE RISK OF WORLD WAR INCREASES

America has forward deployed huge numbers of men and equipment to the area what does this do for the prospects of a third world war?

We can seek a permanent resolution in line with UN Security Council resolutions, or we can seek military solutions.

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UKRAINE IS LOST TO EUROPE

13 November 2023

Ukraine is lost to Europe and the dying EU should conserve contributions from member states for worthwhile projects that enhance our peace and prosperity.

Ukraine has lost this war. It foolishly rejected peace in 2015 and in 2022 and now faces the consequences. The people of Ukraine will realise how idiotic has been their president, who has cost them half a million lives. They will rise up against him. He will flee the country to one of his numerous villas bought with money from American and European taxpayers or from Arms sold into other conflict areas around the world by members of his corrupt oligarchy.

The number one purpose of this war was to get Ukraine into NATO: that will never happen. The idea of Ukraine joining the EU is completely absurd and purely another political dream from our leaders very far out of touch with reality, since Ukraine is at war and in any case is economically completely unviable. Frankly, who would want to take on the burden of Ukraine? And where would they find the money?

The answer is that only Russia is in a position to offer Ukraine a prosperous and peaceful future. There is plenty of room for optimism. Ukraine's future lies in some kind of a rebuild and reindustrialization arrangement with Russia. Russia will see to Ukraine as it did in the 18th century when Katherine the Great and her architect Potemkin built Novo Rossiya.

I would imagine that the east from Odessa up to Kiev will be reintegrated into Russia and the portion that is left, the"rump", can be given to the Poles or can attempt to continue limping along as a state dependent on Moscow.

How can anyone ever have the slightest confidence in our foolhardy politicians? They have put us into the greatest debt we have ever known, they have taken us to two wars now, they have sullied our culture with mass immigration, they struggle with solutions for climate change and they are unable to deal with almost daily civil war in our societies.

We live in poverty, inflation and violence; our health service is non-existent, our schools are falling apart, our defenses are not up to it.

Failure after failure after failure. We need serious politicians who represent our interests. W need a 20 year program to find independence from America and its collapsing Order.

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

Amen

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WHY INTELLECTUALS ARE MOSTLY LEFTIES

6 November 2023

This is the title of an extract from a conversation between Roger Scruton and Hamza Yusuf.

https://youtu.be/FYo4KMhUx9c?si=Wfj6jcH9797jumbQ

It's a very good presentation by Roger. He is talking about the appeal of left-wing ideologies today to those seeking a solid framework for their beliefs and ideas, pegs on which they can hang their knowledge. Like the leaves on a tree, if the leaves are the bits of knowledge, an ideology connects all through eventually to one central trunk, which is their ideological belief system. 

This is inevitably lefty thinking, or Marxism if you prefer. Roger says that the day will one day come to anyone with a living brain when that person is able to look back at the time when they had an ideology and realise that today they do not need reasons to explain the way things: things are simply the way they are. Someone who doesn't need reasons any longer is someone who we might call a Conservative.

I think it's not only the attraction of a coherent system of thought for navigating a complex topic - politics, political behaviour -  that pulls in younger people and those with intellectual questions at university.

But I think as well there's this thing called Group Think, which is a bit like an equivalent in the financial world to FOMO, fear of missing out - if you don't join the group then you're likely to be ostracised and see your career cut down. So newbies at the margin join up, for fear others in the core will think they "don't understand", ie have puny intellects, and after that initial commitment they just go into the subject deeper and deeper.

It's a bit like walking into a forest. It gets darker and darker and darker and then eventually you start to walk out of the forest and eventually the daylight begins to return and you start to see the world as it really is, as it always was, when you were a child, you see more objectively, and you can start to make connections and associations of your own.

This FOMO thing is part of how soft power works, as well. If you don't join the neocons then your career as a journalist or a teacher or in high administration or in politics, your career will be shortened because you have ideas that oppose those of the ruling elite, you are therefore against them. There's not much room for nuance lower down in the hierarchy.

It must be annoying to non-extremist contrarians like Roger, never to get a proper hearing for his ideas. Dead now poor chap, coming up to his 4th annif' this Jan24.

Group Think and the lack of diversity of perspectives - not the same things - is very dangerous  ... look at the mess we're in today, for example. Look at the Central Banks. They are all staffed by hundreds upon hundreds of PhDs in economics, all of whom pretty much are neo-Keynesian ie they all think that debt is not so important because the job of the government is to intervene in the market with fiscal and monetary policies that will smooth out short term irregularities, but in reality they can't see the consequences of their Grand Designs of untested ideas, like QE, and hence the mess we're in today. 

It's just the same with all these lefties who think the individual is unimportant and the interests of workers worldwide, as they see them, should prime over the liberty of the individual.

We know that the interests of the individual and the nation will out against the collectivists and the internationalists. We know that you build a wall from the ground up, brick by brick, and don't start at the top!

And we know that the neoclassicists in economics are right when they talk about the need for a balanced budget and for letting individuals in the market combine to decide, each blindly, the way forward.

As to Hegel's "Labour of the Negative", that Roger talks about, yes it's true that Roger's negativists think that the world is all wrong and the only way to put it right is to seize power in order to put into practice your  blueprint for your New Utopia, that's true.

But as I recall Edmund Burke when he looked at the French Revolution in 1789, just like Roger did his in 1968, he concluded that Revolution will fail just as Grand Designs fail, and progress can only really come from incremental change, "in-flight corrections", if you prefer. Roger says he spent his life trying to find out what he didn't like about the mess those students were making of policemen's helmets back in 1968.

The real trouble with the left is its collectivist thinking. It makes grand designs for the future, ignoring present realities and ignoring human nature ; and then when things go wrong it realises that it was because it didn't have perfect knowledge, that is the problem. It's the lack of perfect knowledge that you would need for Grand Designs to work out as planned.

So that's me for the day...

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LES ROUDOUDOUX

31 October 2023

(Version française en bas)

                                                  Roudoudoux

Strange how the mind works, leading you along country roads ...

Where does the word "Mistral" come from?

What is "Le Mistral Gagnant"?

My grandchildren to-be.

Where does the word "Mistral" come from?

"Mistral" ("Master" in Occitan) 

As everyone knows, the Mistral, originally, is the name of a cold wind that blows for a few strong days at a time down the Rhone river and out into the Med., the Gulf of Lion, reaching the Balearics and Palma. It's one of eight winds blowing across the Med from the eight points of the compass.

If you travel Provence, you'll notice the farmhouses mostly face South, not for the sea, but to have your back to the wind. And the belfries and bell towers are often of wrought iron to let this wind through!!

What is "Le Mistral Gagnant"?

There was a French singer-songwriter, Renaud, still around today, surprising as he's a right alkie-alcoholic. He was very popular in the 1970s 80s 90s.

He wrote a very sentimental song for his little daughter, all about his memories from when he was her age, stealing sweets from his sweet shop. It was published in 1985, the year I arrived in France.

Anyway, one of those sweets was a kind of sherbet dip, sherbet that you sucked up through a liquorice straw so it fizzled and exploded and sent a rush of cool across your tongue. And the name the sweetmaker gave to that bonbon was "mistral gagnant", hence the name of Renaud's song.

Another favourite were "les roudoudoux" - a dob of brightly coloured sugar syrup served in a seashell that the girls would lick out and so doing often cut their little pink tongues.

My grandchildren to-be.

Well that's a very nostalgic song of memories past, but for me it's a song about the future. I have two wonderful sons, no daughters as it happens, so I am looking forward to having grandchildren.

Le Mistral gagnant

https://youtu.be/_YqzuE-5RE8?si=mlzMrxbfHZWqeLpI

Lyrics

(Click to see lyrics in original and translation)

===

31 octobre 2023

 D'où vient le mot « Mistral » ?

 Qu'est-ce que "Le Mistral Gagnant" ?

 Mes futurs petits-enfants.

 D'où vient le mot « Mistral » ?

"Mistral" ("Maitre" en Occitan) 

 Comme chacun le sait, le Mistral, à l'origine, est le nom d'un vent froid qui souffle pendant quelques jours forts à la fois sur le Rhône et dans la Méditerranée, le Golfe du Lion, pour atteindre les Baléares et Palma.  C'est l'un des huit vents qui soufflent sur la Méditerranée depuis les huit points cardinaux.

 Si vous voyagez en Provence, vous remarquerez que les mas sont pour la plupart orientés plein sud, non pas pour la mer, mais pour tourner le dos au vent.  Et les beffrois et clochers sont souvent en fer forgé pour laisser passer ce vent !!

 Qu'est-ce que "Le Mistral Gagnant" ?

 Il y avait un auteur-compositeur-interprète français, Renaud, toujours là aujourd'hui, surprenant car il est un vrai alcoolique.  Il était très populaire dans les années 1970, 80 et 90.

 Il a écrit une chanson très sentimentale pour sa petite fille, qui raconte ses souvenirs quand il avait son âge, lorsqu'il volait des bonbons dans sa confiserie du coin.  Ce chanson fut publié en 1985, l'année de mon arrivée en France, comme par hasard.

 Quoi qu'il en soit, l'un de ces bonbons était une sorte de trempette au sorbet, un sorbet qu'on aspirait avec une paille de réglisse pour qu'il pétille et explose et envoie un flot de fraîcheur sur ta langue.  Et le nom que le confiseur a donné à ce bonbon était « mistral gagnant », d'où le nom de la chanson de Renaud.

 Un autre favori était "les roudoudoux" - une dose de sirop de sucre aux couleurs vives, servi dans un vrai coquillage que les filles léchaient et se coupaient ainsi souvent leur petite langue rose.

 Mes futurs petits-enfants.

 Eh bien, c'est une chanson très nostalgique sur les souvenirs du passé, mais pour moi, c'est une chanson sur le futur.  J'ai deux merveilleux fils, mais pas de filles, donc j'ai hâte d'avoir des petits-enfants.

 Le Mistral gagnant

 https://youtu.be/_YqzuE-5RE8?si=mlzMrxbfHZWqeLpI

 Lyrics

 (Cliquez pour voir les paroles en original et en traduction)

===

Saka ngendi asale tembung "Mistral"?

"Mistral" ("Master" ing basa Occitan)

 Minangka everyone mangerténi, Mistral, Originally, iku jeneng angin kadhemen sing ngunekke kanggo sawetara dina kuwat ing wektu mudhun kali Rhone lan metu menyang Med., Teluk Singa, tekan Balearics lan Palma.  Iki minangka salah siji saka wolung angin sing nyabrang Med saka wolung titik kompas.

 Yen sampeyan lelungan Provence, sampeyan bakal sok dong mirsani farmhouses biasane ngadhepi South, ora kanggo segara, nanging duwe bali menyang angin.  Lan lonceng lan menara lonceng asring saka wesi tempa supaya angin iki liwat!!

 Apa "Le Mistral Gagnant"?

 Ana penyanyi-penulis lagu Prancis, Renaud, isih ana nganti saiki, nggumunake amarga dheweke alkohol alkohol sing bener.  Dheweke misuwur banget ing taun 1970-an 80-an 90-an.

 Dheweke nulis lagu sing sentimental banget kanggo putrine sing cilik, kabeh babagan kenangan nalika umure, nyolong permen saka toko manise.  Iki diterbitake ing taun 1985, taun aku teka ing Prancis.

 Oalah, salah siji saka manisan iku jenis sherbet dip, sherbet sing sampeyan nyedhot munggah liwat liquorice kang dipercoyo supaya fizzled lan mbledhos lan dikirim rush saka kelangan liwat ilat.  Lan jeneng sing diparingake dening tukang manis kanggo bonbon kasebut yaiku "mistral gagnant", mula jenenge lagu Renaud.

 Favorit liyane yaiku "les roudoudoux" - sirup gula sing warnane cerah sing disuguhake ing cangkang sing bakal didilat bocah-bocah wadon lan mula asring ngethok ilat jambon cilik.

 Calon putuku.

 Lha kuwi lagu kenangan masa lalu sing nostalgia banget, nanging kanggoku lagu masa depan.  Aku duwe anak lanang loro sing apik-apik, ora ana anak wadon kaya sing kedadeyan, mula aku ngarep-arep duwe putu.

 Le Mistral gagnant

 https://youtu.be/_YqzuE-5RE8?si=mlzMrxbfHZWqeLpI

Lyrics Lirik

 (Klik kanggo ndeleng lirik ing asli lan terjemahan)

 

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BY POPULAR REVOLT

Why isn't Europe doing anything practical to prevent israeli war crimes?

It is obvious to any cynic that the coming israeli clearout of gaza is in line with the historic orthodox intention of reoccupying holy land. Bibi is ready to risk everything in the service of this goal - his own personal future is a chip he is playing as well.

The stakes are raised in every domain of human activity on this planet. That sounds v dramatic, but the risks faced by peoples everywhere and the lies being told are without precedent.

===

The MSM prevents any comment on this subject.

Take stock of the severity of political and military positions taken by leaders everywhere across Earth, we see high stakes the stakes are raised in every domain of human activity. That sounds v dramatic, but the risks faced by peoples everywhere and the lies being told are without precedent.

While I cannot imagine my fellow countryman taking to the streets in the millions, history shows that these desperate situations are always resolved by what you might call popular revolt.

I would only say that comment is about the only safety valve at the moment and the FT is not showing much wisdom for the long term by bottling up the legitimateconcerns of ordinary thinking folk like me.

It's the same everywhere and without giving a fair hearing to both sides and without responding to people's demands it will all end in blood and tears.

Europe by its wealth and its population is bigger than America, but Europe is in shackles to America. What is needed is a long-term plan to redress or remove American influence.

====

Europe by its wealth and its population is bigger than America, but Europe is in shackles to America. What is needed is a long-term plan to redress or remove American influence.

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ARE NATWEST SHARES A BARGAIN?

29 October 2023

Banks often trade at less than book value, ie the market cap is below the book value, book value is assets minus liabilities.

So the questions today are: why do banks often trade below their book value and are NatWest shares currently a bargain or is NatWest a value trap?

In general, banks may trade below book value for many reasons. Geopolitical uncertainties that threaten global peace and the price of oil, is one factor. Investors are uncertain about the quality and valuation of the bank's assets - its  loans, securities, or derivatives. Banks face many risks - credit risk, interest rate risk, regulatory risk. Then there are macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates, economic growth, and inflation, that can influence a bank's profitability and so its market valuation. As to the regulatory environment around operations and capital requirements, these may limit the bank's ability to generate high returns on equity.

The special problem at this time is how the sudden rise in interest rates and promise of "higher for longer" has impaired the quality of bank loans and reduced their valuation. Not just banks but insurance companies too insurance companies try to match their future liabilities with future income from safe and stable assets usually government bonds but owing to the very low interest rate regime insurance companies have had to move into the equities and derivatives market in order to do this matching.

Today, let's look at just one factor: derivatives trading. This is not widely understood and so often overlooked. Typically, of a bank's total earning, half or more would come from the interest on making loans, while another 25% might come from derivatives trading.

When you look at the amounts the bank puts at risk from this trading, they are totally crazy, and can be as much as 50 times the bank's market cap.

What are derivatives? What is hedging? Derivatives are just agreeing a future price on for example a commodity like wheat, old as the hills this was farmers securing next year's income, and then when the time comes the differences are settled and someone wins it all and someone loses it all. A bank will buy a bunch of assets that it considers are ever so slightly undervalued and then it will hedge its bet by shorting similar assets that it considers slightly overvalued; and it will wait for those differences, or valuation gaps, to close and pocket the money. That is how hedge funds use derivatives to make money.

That sounds risky, who can predict the weather? Uncertain, even though the differences between the future price and the present price may be quite small.

But that's nothing risky. What really makes it risky is that because those differences are so small, the banks weigh in really heavily using borrowed money to magnify their expected gain - this kind of leverage makes for a hugely risky game, one that can produce spectacular gains or of course catastrophic losses. 

What leverage multiplier? LTCM Long Term Capital Management is the usual quoted example. It leveraged 25 times so its market cap of four billion was turned into a bet of a hundred billion, which it could have lost, which would have devastated its creditors and its lenders and brought down the system. Lehman brothers went bankrupt when the government allowed the sub-prime crisis to collapse Lehman bringing on the 2008 financial crisis. Its leverage was 30 to 1. Thirty to one. Just consider that, set in the context of "too big to fail" and "moral hazard". The profits are pocketed but the losses are mutualised with taxpayers.

Risks at that level explain why banks often trade at below par and especially at this moment in the financial system where everything seems to be going pear-shaped...

But as Joseph Wang said today,

 https://youtu.be/TU423lhdNng?si=UMrUHyaN42lAfgrD 

things seem to be past their worst, in which case those Natwest shares, now trading at 72% of book value, may be very cheap indeed! And compared with their peers, this is cheap. 

NatWest's 3rd quarter revenues and earnings missed analysts' expectations by 3.3 and 3.8 pc, and earnings are expected to decline by 5.8pc per year for the next three years, but were impressive - revenue up 9.3pc, net income up 64pc, EPS 10GBp as against 5.9 3Q2022, profit margin 29pc up from 20pc a year earlier - mainly from the higher revenue. PEG 5-yr expected is just 0.38.

The share price declined 17pc on these results, leaving the stock trading on a forward PE of 4x as against 5x in the UK banking industry. Total returns to shareholders have been 68pc over the past three years. 

The current yield is 8.5%, 15.5 GBp, as against an average of 6pc for banking as a whole, on a payout ratio of just 31pc, EPS were 52 GBp. An unreliable divi record, though applying the same payout ratio, are forecast to reach 11.3pc in three years.

shareholder returns incl dividends

 

Luke Gromen tells a very different story from Joseph Wang,

https://youtu.be/jJ3ajrsz-IY?si=TNzvRfoy9no-8oPq

He argues that the bond market will collapse (ie the entire economy) if the US dollar and oil remain high.

Impossible to say whether NatWest shares are a buy or an avoid with all this uncertainty, but in general financials are not a part of the economy where many contrarian analysts would choose to be, better to be in hard assets, precious metals, commodities, manufacturing possibly, industries connected with renewal of infrastructure and utilities.

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THE TROUBLE WITH THE MIDDLE EAST

25 October 2023

Sunak, von Leyen, go to Jerusalem to show support for Netanyu's bombing of his concentration camp.

This is so disgusting! This is one of those rare ocassions where ordinary people - well, me - would take to the streets.

It is so hugely outrageous and really difficult to understand. They should be supporting Guetteres and not Netanyahu. Israel should be blackballed by the West.

What does this do for our global standing?

This is a phase in the West's history where its fear of decline is blinding it to reason. The West has taken off its thinking cap, enlightenment Europe is stupidly following the idiot leadership in Washington. It is not even following its emotions, it is more a primeval, reptilian, response.

It was France that led us out of the dark ages intellectually speaking with its revolutionary values and its creation, practically-speaking, of the nation state. France was a beacon to the world, shining these modern ideas from Europe.

And yet look at that twat Macron, there's no other word for him, he goes to Israel and confirms that the priority is the release of Israeli hostages. This is really foolish and if enacted would get this conflict absolutely nowhere -  releasing the hostages is the very last thing to do, only once there is enactament of peace and justice.

The Israeli state is a fait accompli, a historical fact, but bombing its Arab citizens out of existence, or pushing them into the desert or the sea, is completely and totally unacceptable - it's ethnic cleansing, it's genocide ... call it what you want.

The Israelis are hysterical as usual because all this has happened to them before and anyway they are a people from the scorched and ever-shifting sands of the Middle East, they are all the same: highly emotional, overheated, raging, blind....extreme heat and unrelenting sun can generate emotions like frustration and irritability, emotions that overwhelm. 

Try to imagine the relief that the shade of a man's hand brings when the temperature is 50° - this is a story from the Bible incidentally, it's a story we living in cooler climes have difficulty in relating to but if you've ever lived there, you'll understand why these people can be so rabid and why Islam was the true "final solution" and why ordinary Muslims are generally the most peaceful people on earth. 

But here we are following them in their hysteria where we should be calming them down and taking issue with them and putting them on a path which would avoid a major conflagration.

This is Zionism that is responsible, this idea of a greater Israel from the Jordan to the Mediterranean, of a completely false idea of a land with no people for a people with no land. To condemn Zionism is not being anti-semitic or jewophobic it is to condemn a nasty and pernicious ideology and condemn a government that is driven by this racist thinking. Jews everywhere should be ashamed of Netanyahu and the extreme orthodox right.

If there are three rules in life for finding the truth and a way firward, the first is to chuck away all ideologies (not easy) (religeon is an ideology btw). Zionism is an understandable response to the pogroms, but it is still a very nasty "ism" that wouldn't last five minutes if it were freely debated in public, in Europe today.

https://youtu.be/zUuOayK9lb8?si=PkE1-PmWioaew5rb

And to that video, this three-star general that is helping the Israeli government plan its ground offensive. Well there are apparently about 48 four and five star generals these days in America's DoD, whereas the last war was won by eight such generals. I seem to recall this from a Mearsheimer.

And as to these tunnels. I have no idea, but I would imagine that the heavy bombing is an exercise producing seismic information that would allow a pretty clear mapping of The Tunnels and then just rolling down damn-buster type bombs through them would collapse them, I would imagine.

And yeah all the longer term health consequences of blowing apart buildings full of toxic castinogens or all that depleted uranium and all the other stuff, it  isn't exactly good for nature and the environment - these are really stupid people we are dealing with, stupid in the Ekhart Tolle sense of not being in tune with the universe.

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