Monday 21 November 2022

ORIGINS OF THE UKRAINE WAR

21 November 2022

A few ideas - three - for understanding what's going on in Ukraine. 

One is, it would be quite useful to look up Mackinder's Heartland as the timeless backdrop:

Who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland
Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island
Who rules the World Island commands the world.

Two, is to realise that this is actually America wanting to stamp on any potential rival as it has always done since the last war ...in this case the rival is Russia, but Germany is a big rival as well and can you imagine some sort of an alliance between Germany (and Europe) and Russia and the exchange of capital and technology, for commodities and Manpower? This would certainly be enough to flatten America and China. America setup a fantastic system where basically it guarantees the trade routes and and open borders and all the rest, but instead of using co-operative means, it chooses conflict every time.

Third angle, would be to look at the history of this conflict which you can take back as far as you want to the great schism if you like but really it's enough to go back to 1991 and the promises made by America to Russia saying that they would keep Russia's new near abroad neutral but of course they didn't and all these countries were admitted into NATO and the EU, so Russia's security at its border was thretened ... bear in mind that Russia has been invaded over 50 times in its history through one of the 9 gateways along that Geographic pivot).

The next step would be 2004-8 and then with the Maidan coup in 2014, the civil war now started in ernest, Kiev outlawing the Russian language and launching missiles that over the next eight years killed 14,000 people in the east.

Then take a look at the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015 and ask why Kiev sign them but did not implement them ; and indeed why Germany and France who arranged this did nothing to see its implementation.

Late 2021, Kiev's missile attacks intensified and beginning of February 22 there was a rain of missiles and by this time Russia had built up sufficient troops on the border to go in and protect its Russian speakers to the east and that was the start of the war

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