Monday 24 October 2022

NATO ENTERS UKRAINE

24 October 2022

In the event of Ukraine's failing, will America's 101st enter Odessa from Romania?
How would Russia respond to these NATO troops in Ukraine?

The picture is always changing and evolving. My original understanding was that Russia would be looking at the full line of intersection with East Europe and in particular at those nine weak spots and seeking to take those weak spots to ensure its future security.

However it does seem that its target area reduced to Ukraine  It started with Kiev, but is now focusing on the Russian-speaking Donbas. This is the ostensible reason for its intervention.

Now however, it looks like what it's really after is keeping the Black Sea, in which case it's going to need Odessa.

Russia is seeking to cut off the West's supply lines through Poland and is reinforcing its presence with several hundred thousand additional troops. It is massing on the Belarus border and I guess this is with the intention of blocking re-supply by the West.

If blocking off resupply and reinforcing its own forces succeeds, then it looks like Ukrainian forces are in for a real pounding. Zelensky would have the options of negotiation or defeat.

However ...and here I am coming to the question! At last, hurrah!!

It seems that America has sent its 101st airborne light infantry division into Romania, which is right next to Odessa. This suggests that before Kiev Falls, JIT, America will enter Ukraine at Odessa (not entering territory newly annexed into the Russian Federation) with the intention of running a buffer along the Dneiper up to Kiev and the Belarus border, separating  West from East Ukraine, while giving a rump Ukraine access to the sea.... and of course claiming victory (but never mind about "victory" or not for the moment).

So this is Plan B: NATO sending troops into Ukraine at Odessa. If Russia is unable to prevent this entry, and remains in place, NATO will be directly fighting Russia, in Ukraine.

How could this scenario be avoided?
How would Russia respond?

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