...as told through the war in Ukraine. Or better still, as told by Putin himself.
https://youtu.be/rm5icaLbUMA
PROBLEMS
It looks to me as if the real problem is the end of the American Order, as precisely described by Ray Dalio. The goal is to assure continued American hegemony - this is pretty obvious, it is about security and survival, nothing more important.
Another reading is that the suffering the Jews endured during the last war due to the failure of the Western powers to protect them has produced a philosophy where they seek to be the hammer rather than the anvil by sheltering in a dictatorship that will protect them because this dictatorship runs the world. "Better to be Hitler than Hitler's victim."
STRATEGY
However you explain the goal of world hegemony, the strategy seems to be for America to continue taking advantage of its reserve currency for borrowing, while sowing disorder in the other trade blocks so as to nip potential rivals in the bud.
It is only now, very late in the cycle of the rise and decline of empires, that Jerome Powell at the Fed is seriously dealing with the problem consequent on America's massive debt. This debt is 130% of GDP, which is similar to the figures for Italy, Greece and Lebanon. However, the US Dollar is for the moment the world's trading currency and safest haven, allowing it to borrow and print as it likes, with little thought for tomorrow.
But the risk with excessive debt - ie expansion of the money supply M1 - is that it will eventually produce high inflation. If left unmanaged, runaway inflation will lead to a run on the dollar and collapse of the currency. Managing inflation, on the other hand, ie bringing it back to the two to three percent range, requires overarching interest rates, which can push an economy into recession.
So with a failing economy, America seeks to prolong its empire by, let's call it, asymmetric means.
INITIATIVES
We've seen these asymmetric initiatives before, going back to the Dulles brothers in S. America, passing by Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and now finally the script is being run on Russia, it is Russia's turn to bleed, along with the peoples of The Ukraine.
The idea is to create chaos that will divide and reduce a people to poverty, disenchant them with their govt, weaken the state in a low-intensity civil war or proxy war, so that the people rise up and overthrow and install a regime or several regimes through dismemberment, favourable to American interests.
This makes it easy for America to divide and rule rival states.
The new Western-oriented regime in Ukraine was promised a place in NATO and by implication the EU (even though in 1991 Gorbachev was promised by Secretary of State James Baker, that Russia's near abroad would remain neutral) if it provoked Russia to attack, with the guarantee that sanctions would quickly bring the Putin regime to its knees.
Then the process of dismemberment was sure to follow, as practised on the Yugoslavian communist regime, could run its course. The CIA / DoD produced maps and strategies (RAND-RR3063, and the second RAND report) authentic or not doesn't matter because I have to say these presentations seem highly accurate.
The one thing America definitely did not want to happen was the symbiotic relationship Russia-Germany to be strengthened into treaties such as Russia joing the EU or NATO! Imagine the strength and output of a German power house, feeding on Russian inputs - this is the nation responsible for three major wars and the holocaust and now rebuilding a super army, albeit buying American equipment and supplies.
Maidan, and then the shelling by Kiev, was supposed to have been resolved in the Minsk agreements, but when these were not implemented, Russia took Crimea and in retaliation the EU first imposed sanctions (from which experience it learnt nothing). This "annexation" was the reason given by America for arming Ukraine, back in 2014.
So as I read it, the American strategy to avoid the end of the American Order - or call it Empire - has not been, until very recently at least, to deal upfront with the foreseeable problems created by its mountain of debt - because let's remember QE raises the value of assets, making the rich richer; but also as the poor get poorer in a democracy, money has to be thrown at them to keep them off the streets - to sow mayhem and murder amongst larger nation states in other trade blocks, incite ethno-religious groupings to demand their independence, divide and rule, and re-draw the maps in the interests of America's govt-industrial-military complex.
So QE at home, chaos abroad.
RISKS
However!!!...various risks were overlooked!!!!
Perhaps Europe failed to realise how much greater was its dependence on Russia than Russia's on Europe, particulary for energy the basic resource that turns all wheels in an economy.
Perhaps Ukraine believed the American plan (where we know American plans always lead to disaster, each greater than the last) and seriously expected the Putin regime to collapse and so it was not ready for war.
Whatever, each is happy with this low-level war of attrition and is re-arming and expecting the other to throw in the towel first.
Ha ha, what dolts they the leaderships everywhere are, (though we-the-people everywhere get the pain).
Are the Europeans blind, stupid or simply corrupted by American soft power?
0 comments:
Post a Comment
Keep it clean, keep it lean