Wednesday 14 September 2022

WHAT COULD BE PUTIN'S OBJECTIVES?

14 September 2022

Putin's primary concern is the security of his country and that means not letting NATO into Ukraine, which is the weakest link in that long and costly-to-defend Western frontier of Russia's with Central Europe.

Security should include Transnistria for sure, and also to be safe Moldova and Romania - the latter being impossible without starting a third world war.

Sentimentally, Russia should be looking to recover Novorosia, which takes it further West from Kherson to Odessa. I wouldn't wager much money on it, but I think that possibly the people of this Eastern part of Ukraine - Orthodox Slaves of Russian descent and hated as such by Eastern Catholic Nazi-leaning Slavs - are sympathetic more to Russia than to the EU....maybe.

Putin wants to concentrate on purely military targets but that will be difficult considering that the Ukrainian military has installed itself in civilian areas. All he could do is to implore them to temporarily leave while he shells the area flat and they can rebuild upon their return at Russia's expense. A pretty mighty operation all told!

Back to the map and North of Ukraine is Belarus, which is already Russia's.

And North again are the Baltic States which he has via the Sawalki gap. Kaliningrad is absolutely bristling with the latest Russian hardware, all pointed at Europe, so unlikely that NATO will interfere there. 

Beyond that is Finland and Sweden - Sweden a historic enemy that has invaded twice but has probably learnt its lesson from its 1708 defeat that ended its ambitions as an Empire  - so I cannot see these two inviting NATO to set itself up militarily in their country, so they are not much of a threat.

So really Crimea has gone and it is now down to taking back New Russia, with its ethnic Russian population dating back to the time of Catherine II, and closing off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea via Odessa and closing the security gap in Transnistria - the Carpathian Mountains.

That should satisfy Russia militarily, sentimentally and economically. How to achieve all this is the subject of another Post...

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