THE FUTURES OF UKRAINE

25 August 2022

MORE AMERICAN AID

Somewhere - I cannot find the reference - there is a breakdown of the latest 3 billion USD America has promised in arms shipments to Ukraine and three points emerge on analysis: 

1 is that it is just lightweight stuff whereas what Ukraine could really use is aircraft HiMAAS etcetera 

2 the supplies will only last for a short time: 

so for example the 240,000 rounds of ammunition considering that Russia is firing off 60,000 a day and Ukraine about 5,000, so 240,000 would just last a few days

3 delivery is expected over a number of months and years, by which time of course Ukraine will likely have lost the war

PREPARED

More generally, Russia has prepared for this war and has been preparing for years, building up stocks, whereas America hasn't and so simply doesn't have the equipment and supplies that would be necessary to sustain in the long haul of trench warfare.

WAY OUT

Surely the best way out of this situation for America would be for the Republican party to start putting some distance between a new foreign policy and the old foreign policy of the Democrats and then hope for a change at the midterms.

But because the mainstream media has so stuffed its heads and our heads with this propaganda that Ukraine is winning, they cannot at the same time discuss the consequences for America should it lose. And so the worry as I see it is that America will react very badly when its losing becomes plainer and plainet, and may escalate to nuclear rather than accept a further defeat after Afghanistan.

Is there any discussion anywhere of how America might react, once losing becomes plain?

NOT PREPARED

The downside of the American policy elite never listening is that they were never prepared... it seems that they have been prepared for counterinsurgency work, but not for large-scale combat operations LSCO as they are called 

And while Germany is spending 100 billion EUR getting ready for future eventualities, we don't hear any news from America of what it is doing to forestall future LSCO - how, practically, for example, would America cope with a Taiwan invasion?

20 KMS FROM NIKOLAEV

https://youtu.be/WQCGlLmIxsw

Mercouris, Russians 20 km from Nikolaev, offset ~56'

Good summary and forecast.

NEW NEW RUSSIA

The local militias in Donbas are supported (directed) by Russia. In Zaparizhia and Kherson seems it is a Russian effort, no militia.

  I'd imagine that once the Donbas, and the Zaparizhia and Kherson regions, Mykolaiv and Odessa, are overrrun, referenda organised, russified into Russia, then it will all be rebuilt and modernised as needed using local labour and resources, so the future of a modern New Russia looks quite promising.

If America is dragging out this inevitable conclusion, it can only be because they're hoping for some black swan element that would reverse Russian gain, hoping to get past 2024 without loss of face... otherwise if they were rational they would be sitting at the negotiating table.

ZILENSKY'S FUTURE

Zilenski will be sacked at some point by his military, surely, as it's the only way to withdraw. Generals carry out orders, but they are responsible for the lives of their men and women.