3 June 2022
A couple of points to make today.
The final settlement of this war when it comes in a couple of months or maybe a couple of years will look much like the deal that Ukraine signed and then reneged on at Minsk in 2014 and 2015:
- Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent and sovereign country although it will be neutral
- Crimea will remain Russian as it pretty much always has been
- and the shelling of the Donbas by Kiev will cease because those two oblasts will achieve a measure of Independence.
The difference between Minsk 1 and 2 and the yet to be agreed Minsk 3 will simply be that the longer this war goes on, the greater the destruction and death.
The other point is that Russia cannot lose this war because its existence depends on its being able to control its natural frontiers and its need for access to a warm water port; and yet at the same time, America cannot win this war because its dominion over its imperium depends on this victory.
So I guess the war will end through victory on the battlefield rather than a more adult discussion at table, as recommended by Europe or at least as was being recommended by France and Germany until they were bullied by America.
So it is a kind of sad irony, don't you think, that we know the outcome, but there's a hell of a lot of fighting to be done before we can get there.
0 comments:
Post a Comment
Keep it clean, keep it lean