UKRAINE : AN END IN SIGHT?

8 June 2022

It is now obvious that Ukraine is losing this war.

The fault largely lies with Boris Johnson, doing the British diplomacy for America's sec of State Antony Blincken and sec of Defence Lloyd Austin. With any luck, he'll be gone shortly and that will open up the possibility of a softer line and a peace settlement.

There was the Turkish peace process from March  which Johnson threw into disarray by telephoning Zelenski and later visiting him, to advise him that if he ever considered negotiation or concession with the Russians, he would lose the associate status and protection afforded his country by NATO. 

It's only on account of this protection that Zelenski could go to his political class and say that it is time for a failing Ukraine to negotiate and make territorial concessions and look we have nothing much to worry about because we're only losing Russian land that would never have been ours anyway.

If Zelensky cannot offer this to his elite, then how can he justify the staggering destruction and loss of life, to finally no useful purpose?

So maybe with Johnson gone there's a chance that the hardline will be softened and a negotiations in Ankara probably take place.

Possibly sooner rather than later.

Further point, if you will allow ...

We need to do this in a way that passes a meaure of blame for the war onto Ukraine, and Zelensky; and does not humiliate Putin. Why? Because we want him, his country, and its commodities comestibles and energy. 

But care: this is exactly what America fears, a regional challenge to its Order. In Europe, in the combination or other, of further aggressive moves from Russia; maybe an alliance between a (possibly re-armed) Germany, with all its technology, and a Russia, with its untold natural resources, possibly backed by 500 million Europeans.