So finally America has the war that it has been provoking since 2014 and before.
After drought, pandemic and war (in that order), we now have famine immediately affecting 250 million people and in not so long from now almost two billion worldwide.
On the economic front, inflation - a supposedly temporary feature coming out of covid - looks to be beyond the reach of central banks, beyond the reach of local interest rate rises, and to become a structural part of our life. With the war, inflation has increased very seriously, particularly in gas, oil and basic foodstuffs.
With rising inflation and interest rates, we can expect lower demand for goods and services, lower profit margins, an increase in bankruptcies, rising unemployment and eventually a stock market crash and recession and harm to the American Order (and that means us).
We should not lose sight of the context. Two billion persons added in the last 20 years. The changes from our alterations to the climate. And a retrenchment away from global dependencies supported by the American Order. Demographics. Climate change. Deglobalisation.
As we know from history, dislocation on this scale will lead to serious political and social unrest and huge migrations.
If Europe wants to protect itself, it must get back in the driving seat of its future, however hard it is to confront the usual bullying tactics of America, and force a peace settlement on (a grateful) Ukraine and Russia.
In addition, Europe should take care of its neighbours around the mediterranean basin and Africa.
Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission, FARM.
We know that an "I'm alright Jack" attitude would rebound on us quite quickly with major migratory flows, and so it is reassuring to see Europe mounting this FARM initiative (ha ha the name) the other side of the Med and in Africa. This seems a much more responsible use of resources than pouring hi-tech arms and military experts into Ukraine.
It is time for pompom Johnson to go and for the UK government to separate itself from the numerous and evident stupidities of the Biden administration.
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