19 April 2022
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From what I can gather there were 12 Russian navy ships in the Black Sea and now there are 10 and I would imagine that in the next couple of months there will be none.
It is hard to see how any of those 10 ships could leave the Black Sea and rejoin other Russian Navy fleets in the Baltic or Arctic ports, sailing past NAT lands; and similarly it is hard to see how those ships in other ports could come to support the 10 in the Black Sea or indeed to support the war.
Furthermore, once the Black Sea is emptied of Russian vessels, I'd imagine that NATO will sail up the Bosphorus which is Turkey and take over the Black Sea and presumably Sebastopol and Crimea.
But I also find it hard to imagine that happening without Russian resistance and this would surely be the situation for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Incidentally, today's tactical nuclear weapons carry a charge of two to three times those used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which were 10 kilotonnes. The West's reaction to the use of nuclear weapons is unknown - this is what is meant by dissuasion. And how would China react? or Ukraine? Or the Russian people? This sinking of the flagship is a new segment in the war, as is the attack by Ukraine on Russian villages over the border.
It is not that America's strategic military planners have not thought through all this: they have. It's just that there are so many scenarios to plan for and each scenario has an uncountable number of factors with incalculable weightings for each. The usual American trick is to throw all the cards up into the air see how they land and look at the opportunities that this presents.
The Americans since the end of the Cold War can absolutely be relied upon to create the most monumental disasters the world has ever seen.
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