PUTIN'S PLANS

1 April 2022

As to Russia's goals. 

Looking at a map, the trouble for Russia geographically, is that its western border opens smoothly onto the plains of Eastern Europe and there are those gateways that give access to invaders.

So a Russian leader would like to plug the gaps with neutral buffer states, all the way from from Estonia to Bulgaria included.

That's the dream. Perhaps from the Baltics, or Finland even, down to Ukraine and Moldovia. 

The minimum a Russian leader would want is what Biden referred to, in the first of his many gaffes, when he said it'd be ok a little bit in, can take the Donbas, that'd be OK. And I think everyone is agreed there's no giving back Crimea, that's gone for good.

(Reminds me of the bar girls here - "I only let them go little bit in and I don't let them stay for long".)

As to the means. 

Whatever the press says to give us foolhardy confidence, Putin's army is massive and the opposition is Ukrainian. Aswhere, outside Ukraine, he'd be up against NATO, which is the Anglo-Saxons - that's clearly now an impossible dream. 

So if I've got it right, he can realistically have Crimea and Eastern Ukraine / Basarabia: I think the two gateways in Moldovia are called that after the name of a former ruling family.

As to a strategy for getting that little lot. 

He knows by now that America will concede nothing, never, while they have a breath left in them. All empires fight to the death (except UK). 

Why not hold peace talks for tactical reasons, but meanwhile continue the groznyization, as this will accelerate the exodus of the local people. The Ukrainians hate Putin by now,  ethnic Russians or not. Remember, just before invading he moved out half a million ex-pat Russians back to Russia.

So he could flatten the country and empty it of people. That would definitely stop the war as there'd be noone left to fight, nor object to his occupation, no population to subdue, no problem holding what he's taken.

 ("I no give change. You can pay my taxi?".)

Then he could shunt back enough Russians, and maybe from Belarus too, to rebuild and replant.

Like that, he would have rubbed out the border on the map and little Russia would have rejoined its big brother.

As to risks.

So the only flies in the ointment are that this relies on the Russian army being strong enough to scare the shit out of the people and kill those who won't run away. 

Also, looking at the demographic table, Russia doesnt really have the youth to work the Russian economy, let alone shift millions to Ukraine. Hence Belarus, but it's probably got the same problem.

...maybe from China? It's demographics are worse.