LEAD UP TO THE WAR

23 April 2022 

https://youtu.be/zSZokTkBIfs

Baud points out in his new book "Putin, Master of the Game", that the Minsk accords were and then modified and re-signed, by Ukraine and the two self proclaimed republics, witnessed by Russia and by Fr and Germany, then registered and approved with the UN and its five permanent members.

So in 2015, there was a political solution. But instead we have war and his book explains how the West is responsible for the devt of this conflict. 

The Americans, he says, admit this and  Baud draws on mai ly American sources, none Russian, and he quotes from an interview in 2019 with Zelensky's advisor Olexei Restovitch who says that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO if Russia attacked. This was the deal. That interview is posted on Youtube.

Baud wrote the book because with his inside information, he could see that western observers had holes in their knowledge, were presenting the situation in black and white, and after the invasion simply did away with the Russian case altogether.

What happened?

Ukraine and the Ukranians are the victims. They are being sacrificed for objectives of a higher order. The EU did not do its job properly. Josef Borrell admits there isn't a military soln. And each point of disagreement should be the subject of political negotiation, not cause for military conflict.

Putin, claims Baud, only decided to invade in the preceeding weeks, from about late-Jan 2022. Zelensky's adviser in 2019 had also announced the conditions for resolution that would necessaily be ubacceptable to Russia and inevitably lead Putin to make war - it's also on Youtube. 

From mid-Feb, shelling from Kiev increased. 21 Feb, the separatist asked him for help defending themselves against Kiev, they and Putin then signed a Treaty of Support and Assistance, which the provinces used 22 Feb to seek military assistance from Russia, which then allowed Putin to invoke Art.51 of the UN Charter.

 Although, instead of providing arms, Russia decided to attack and entered Ukraine the 24 Feb, as we all know. Why no graduated response and straight for all-out war?

Putin explains that there came a moment when, faced with the aggression against the mainly Russian popn of the Donbas, to do nothing, or something, something big, or something small, would cost Russia the same price, same consequences for Russia, Russia would be lacerated with sanctions, regardless.

So he went in big. 

Putin knew that come what May, Russia would receive the heaviest sanctions. Baud argues that Russia was therefore left with no other choice.

In non-western circles, Putin passes for a dove. He has the backing of his people since his purpose is to protect the Russian diaspora in Ukraine.