30 March 2022After a month of fighting, the flow of refugees and cities trashed, has the peace process now started? It seems so. Has the bombartment stopped? What will the troops do during the months of negotiation? It looks like we will get a "Minsk-3" that strangely ressembles what Zelensky's predecessor signed up for, but the Ukrainian govt didn't like because it gave some autonomy to the Russian East. Kiev preferred to lob missiles into Donbas and chase out the Russian expats.After a month, and now a pause, we can collect our thoughts together.The...
Wednesday, 30 March 2022
Monday, 28 March 2022
IS UKRAINE IN RUSSIA?
28 March 2022Putin thinks so. In an unscripted speech in Poland this last week, Mr Biden said of Putin: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”Yes well, how embarrasing, in a senior moment, Biden
forgot he was the POTUS and let slip America's true intention, regime
change wherever converting the world's autocracies into democracies and
oppression turns to human rights.
Or put it another way, eliminate the competition and stay on top, Master of the World, forever.
We all know this...
LANNA DANCE "FUSION"
27 April 2022It was quite a challenging show. It started off easy, traditional Lanna dance, albeit in a scrap yard.Then it started. First a series of motifs, numbered instructions such as "dance while eating", "while doing the housework" ...I began to feel uncomfortable.She started pulling clouds of sequins out of her bosom. And the stage was obscured in flutters of dollar bills.I got the message, but heavier were to come.She began machine-gunning her two sisters sitting peacefully on the coach. And thus began a long long dance, the three of them....
Friday, 25 March 2022
HERE IS WHERE THE NEXT CRISIS WILL START
25 March 2022After the last sub-prime crisis and 15 years of QE, Brexit dislocation from UK's main market, climate change and the Energy Transition away from fossil fuels, Covid and yet more very serious business disruption, now war in Europe with sanctions ejecting the world's only full-spectrum commodity and agri producer ... where will the next crisis come from? Many have savings in stock markets. There seems to be a growing problem in the credit markets. If you look at household and corporate debt, by region (US, Euroland and China),...
KALININGRAD
25 March 2022We hear nothing of Kaliningrad (formerly Prussian Konigsberg). This "exclave" was included in the German Empire in 1871 and then as part of the WW2 settlement, Konigsberg was given to Russia and renamed.In March 1999, Poland joined NATO and the Baltic States followed in 2004. This left K high and dry outside Russia, enclave turned exclave. The map shows this strange situation very clearly.If you take a look at the map you'll notice three things of great strategic importance: - how K is on the Baltic sea, with Russia's ice-free...
Thursday, 24 March 2022
ANOTHER EPIC AMERICAN DISASTER
25 March 2022 I have been pushing the peace line in these
columns for a couple of years. Until, I would say, this week, 99% of
comment has been from football-hooligan types and CSA has been treated
to abuse and called a Russian troll.
Sense is starting to filter through. There are really
only two arguments. One is the justice angle, as evidenced for example in this youtube.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOUThe other is America's record as it...
DEALING WITH WESTERN PROPAGANDA
24 March 2022https://youtu.be/11q9dir2Nts"There is a faction that has a geopolitical strategy that is happy to drain Russia of power and if it comes at the expense of Ukraine, they're OK doing that". The "faction" is the blob, which returned, having got rid of Trump. Hilary Clinton is making the same case as them, that's all. I notice that it is purely tactical / operational, the how-to of bleeding Russia dry - you never get into the why, except that Putin invaded a so-so sovereign country, true but that's the tail end of a story going...
Wednesday, 23 March 2022
FRANCE WONT BE QUITTING RUSSIA
22 March 2022https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabetta15% of the world's natural gas and 80% of Russia's are found here. This is the Yamal LNG project, opened by Putin on 8 Dec 2017. It is an LNG plant, a port, a railway, an airport, and residential. It's a JV between Novatek, which Total owns 20%, China's CNPC another 20% so they wont be best pleased either, and the Russian govt.There is also Artic-2, opened in 2018 with Macron attending.TotalEnergies is the fourth largest company in the CAC40. This project is a huge part of their accounts....
Saturday, 19 March 2022
MORE COVID
19 March 2022Older folk, the unwell, are very cautious, and understandably so.In my country, covid is more and more common amongst the over-70s - 1 in 23 over 70s have covid, that is a lot and it is the highest it has ever been. But they are vaccinated so they dont notice. Nonetheless, the govt is under pressure to roll out the fourth jab.In my country, about 2.6 million people have covid at the moment. That is 1 in 20. It is highest in school children : 1 in 16 have covid, that is more than 2 in every class.Why is covid on the increase? Does it...
THE UK'S LIZ TRUSS - JUST ANOTHER WARMONGER
19 March 2022She said: "We don't see any serious withdrawal of Russian troops or any serious proposals on the table."
America and her chorus girl the UK are not looking for
peace. If they were, they would surely not expect the other side to
remove their army before sitting at table to negotiate. That would be
the other side sitting having surrendered.
It is also a shame for us all that America pretends no
serious proposals have been made, considering this is Russia's last
stand.
...
Friday, 18 March 2022
A NEW EUROPE
This guy has seen politicians come and go and must have had difficulty framing politicians typical short-term thinking in a bit of historical perspective.Putin has got as far as he's going to get - we just need to tidy it up into a Minsk-3 and sweep some stuff back under the carpet.But the Americans block everything with their aggressive warmongering. We, on the other hand, do not need to be America's draft animals.China and America are both dying embers. But not Europe. The UK could link up Russia's near abroad, talk nicely to Putin, and create...
Monday, 14 March 2022
WHAT'S WRONG WITH BORIS' POLICY ON REHOUSING UKRAINIAN REFUGEES?
14 March 2022
I cannot believe anyone is applying to take in a ukrainian family.
This is a govt scam to silence an anti-war movement or
at least to silence the nationalist sentiment that brought us Brexit and
Trump and populism generally
You are supposed to feel guilty if you object to receiving these immigrants.
The goal should be to offer safety until this conflict
is resolved, after which the families return home...
Saturday, 12 March 2022
EUROPE IS NOT SOVEREIGN
15 March 2022No country in Europe is sovereign because it is not reponsible for its own defence nor its own foreign policy.Europe is not sovereign while it pays NATO and the Americans for its defence. It is difficult to say these things and not be lynched. But America gas interests different from those of Europe and sometimes in opposition to. Looking at the wealth and population skills base, Europe could in principle outperform America. What does America care for Europe and Ukraine - so far away, itself independent in energy. It cares more for...
WHAT'S WRONG WITH MACRON?
12 March 2022Macron is the only politician keeping in touch with Putin. Good for Macron.
But otherwise, Macron is one of those hussard rowdy
types. He needs to be a bit less flamboyant and declarative, he needs to
listen and concentrate more, be less concerned by public opnion and
focus more on policy, make attainable objectives instead of massive
shattering unreachable goals esp given the coffers are empty, he needs
to recognise that France is a middle-ranking power and he isn't some
emperor-in-waiting, get away from...
Wednesday, 9 March 2022
UKRAINE START HERE FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT
Look, instead of all this bloodthirsty stuff, consider Putin's petceptions and how that might be incorporated into a just solution.Hes aftaid of a colour revolution in Moscow and feels further exposed because he doesnt control the access points invaders have traditionally used, viz. Crimea, Bessarabia and Suwalki corridor.Of great significance here are the wishes of local populations and also Russia's demographics - Russia will run out of fighting-age men by the end of the decade.Plus, bear in mind that accesion to NATO and EU membership is a very...
Monday, 7 March 2022
IS MELENCHON RIGHT?
Melenchon is a utpoianist who believes man if perfectable. I know that man is flawed and only a functioning state with an operational legal system keeps man in place. (Religion can perform the same function.)Melenchon thinks that the interests of the group must predominate over the freedom of the individual. And these interests are decided by the State. I think that direction is not given top-down from some autocracy, but rises bottom-up from the summation of the wishes of the people.There should only be one party rule because competing...
Friday, 4 March 2022
LIFE IS A TALE, TOLD BY AN IDIOT
4 March 2022As we talked about Shakespeare, you might be interested in this short speech from Macbeth, perhaps one of the best known, though there are hundreds.Shakespeare's English is difficult, even for an English man, even for me But Ian McKellen makes it easy to understand.What do you think?https://youtu.be/zGbZCgHQ9m8Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,To the last syllable of recorded time;And all our yesterdays have lighted foolsThe way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!Life's but a walking...
Wednesday, 2 March 2022
WHAT HAPPENS IN WAR (101 ECONOMICS)
3 March 2022After a war, the losing side loses is currency. So my small investment at 259 in POLY.L is subject to big risk.Things never go as planned in war, as we've seen, and it'll be worse than we could imagine, it's 'cos of the other side.But the winner will be he side that can endure the most pain.The kind of things we could see in Russia, my homework reveals, might be that it closes its markets, sets up asset price controls, changes ownerships, imposes exchange controls, and may change tax rates, limit stock market issuances and impose higher...
FUTURE OF UKRAINE
The Russians I'd imagine want to reduce Ukraine to rubble and leave.I remember the romans did that in the third punic war in 146BC. Not one stone was left standing on another. It took a week to put all the inhabitants of Carthage to the sword. They were throwing them off high buildings, it was quicker.But you know what?Carthage was rebuilt, it became the capital of its Roman province and the third most important city of the Roman Empire.There was a long period of prosperity from rich agricultural exports and a rich cosmopolitan culture.Christianity...
