THE ORIGINS OF RUSSO PHOBIA

27 February 2022

 A great presentation and question and answer session with Tom and John Measheimer. 

https://youtu.be/Nbj1AR_aAcE

One. On the origins of Russo-phobia. 

This argument from John is quite American centric. If you live in Europe, you might have a different perspective. 

But I would say from the American perspective that the dislike of Russia goes back past the Monroe doctrine to Woodrow Wilson's talk in 1916.

 And from the European point of view, you have to go all the way back past the centuries and see that the threat is almost ingrained and instinctive as it originates in a nomadic people living on the euro Asian plateau, poor steppes land, and always moving westward. These were migratory invasions, I would imagine, as perceived by the Europeans of the time. There was also Tamerlane, Genghis Khan, Marco Polo, the mongol hordes, and Josef Stalin was from Georgia.

 Two. On the other point about the part played by nuclear weapons. 

I would say that Russia and Putin see themselves as truly under a real existential threat. If Putin fails in his Ukraine invasion, surely he will be replaced, and even if he succeeds the sanctions are likely to put a lot of pressure on those who formerly supported him to get rid of the dictator. We saw in the eyes of his security council this week a lot of fear, of course, but enough to stop an assassin?

If Ukraine fails for the Russians and the States wins again, this would be fatal for Russia, surely? There's the threat of a colour revolution at home. There's the Russian power elite losing control. There's potentially a breakup of Russia itself. 

 So surely in this situation where the very existence of Russia or of Putin is threatened, Russia would play its final card and quite possibly launch a hypersonic nuclear tipped missile on Washington. They travel at 25,000 miles an hour, they are virtually undetectable, and they would take 15 minutes from launch to destroy the White House.

  Three. This brings me to a final and rather wild thought. 

If Russia ceases to exist as a country and is in some way or other taken over by democratic liberal forces, where does this leave the pivot to Asia? China would wake up with a new neighbour. Nato would have a new purpose as it would be able to encircle and menace China, this time from the North.

Putin himself explains russo-phobia by saying that the West fears Russia because of its size:

https://youtu.be/MOkl2XgZlw0