19 February 2022
Russian goals are
Survival and a say, a veto, in European security matters (NATO and US)
This means renegotiating the cold war settlement that it was forced to sign and have the States respect its word to Gorbachev
Russia's demands are
Ukraine and Georgia must not join NATO
No ballistic or offensive weapons on its doorstep
NATO pull back to pre-1997 borders
Russia's strategy
Force America to the negotiating table by massing for an invasion and continually upping the anti
Modern war is not about boots on the ground, it is cyber and covert ops that turn off a country, its power comm.s and transport and renders its population centres uninhabitable
No side can risk casualties because of public opinion
It is irrelevant talking g about pivoting to Asia, keeping the oil flowing or promising to support Europe, allies and open societies, talk is cheap, diplomatic process will work.
What can the West do?
The West does not have any initiative and it doesn't have a diplomatic process outside Minsk and would-be emperor Macron. It needs a process and begin by showing understanding for the Russian position.
Prepare the public.
Outcomes
A negotiated settlement where NATO withdraws and Russia recognises the independence of Ukraine
Or the country is trashed, eg split into three
With the risk of nuclear war.
0 comments:
Post a Comment
Keep it clean, keep it lean