ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE

28 February 2022

"Ukraine had a comedian who turns out to be a leader. The UK has a leader who turned out to be a comedian."

That's very funny and well put.

Zelensky is a quite remarkable and unusual person, from what I can make out.

His mother tongue is Russian. He is a Russian Jew from East Ukraine. He wanted to study in Israel, but his father forbade him this.

He stands fast in his capital city Kiev. When offered a lift out by the Americans, he replied, "I want bullets, not a taxi."

Few of us can completely escape the influence of our background and learn to think for ourselves. Perhaps in his case, it comes from the profound respect he has for the Americans - his great grandfather and three great great aunts died in the holocaust.

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THE ORIGINS OF RUSSO PHOBIA

27 February 2022

 A great presentation and question and answer session with Tom and John Measheimer. 

https://youtu.be/Nbj1AR_aAcE

One. On the origins of Russo-phobia. 

This argument from John is quite American centric. If you live in Europe, you might have a different perspective. 

But I would say from the American perspective that the dislike of Russia goes back past the Monroe doctrine to Woodrow Wilson's talk in 1916.

 And from the European point of view, you have to go all the way back past the centuries and see that the threat is almost ingrained and instinctive as it originates in a nomadic people living on the euro Asian plateau, poor steppes land, and always moving westward. These were migratory invasions, I would imagine, as perceived by the Europeans of the time. There was also Tamerlane, Genghis Khan, Marco Polo, the mongol hordes, and Josef Stalin was from Georgia.

 Two. On the other point about the part played by nuclear weapons. 

I would say that Russia and Putin see themselves as truly under a real existential threat. If Putin fails in his Ukraine invasion, surely he will be replaced, and even if he succeeds the sanctions are likely to put a lot of pressure on those who formerly supported him to get rid of the dictator. We saw in the eyes of his security council this week a lot of fear, of course, but enough to stop an assassin?

If Ukraine fails for the Russians and the States wins again, this would be fatal for Russia, surely? There's the threat of a colour revolution at home. There's the Russian power elite losing control. There's potentially a breakup of Russia itself. 

 So surely in this situation where the very existence of Russia or of Putin is threatened, Russia would play its final card and quite possibly launch a hypersonic nuclear tipped missile on Washington. They travel at 25,000 miles an hour, they are virtually undetectable, and they would take 15 minutes from launch to destroy the White House.

  Three. This brings me to a final and rather wild thought. 

If Russia ceases to exist as a country and is in some way or other taken over by democratic liberal forces, where does this leave the pivot to Asia? China would wake up with a new neighbour. Nato would have a new purpose as it would be able to encircle and menace China, this time from the North.

Putin himself explains russo-phobia by saying that the West fears Russia because of its size:

https://youtu.be/MOkl2XgZlw0

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FIVE WAVES

26 February 2022

Well for those, like me, who thought the Americans were being alarmist and crying wolf, no, Putin invaded on 24 Feb at 03h35 UK time.

It is a war with tanks, missiles, aeriel bombardments and presumably we may soon witness house-to-house and hand-to-hand fighting in the major cities of Ukraine.

This is pre-planned as Putin invaded on Thursday but his announcement had been recorded on Monday 21st and he did write a White Paper in 2008 stating that a security zone is needed between Russia and another "strategic platform".

So Russia entered from Crimea, Belorussia and Khartif. He did a "clean" job: aeriel bombardment of key infrastructure to decapitate the Ukrainian military, troops dropped by helicopter, blackout no images.

  https://youtu.be/Nbj1AR_aAcE          

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THIS WAR COULD MAKE REFUGEES OF ALL US EUROPEANS

26 February 2022

NATO advanced in five waves up to Russia's front doorstep, disregarded its 1992 assurances of neutrality, Ukraine found itself with a pro-Western govt, has never implemented its 2015 agreement to respect its 20% Russian population, was promised consideration of NATO membership in 2009.

Russia in a 2008 White Paper warned it needed a buffer zone, it took over Crimea and Donbas in 2014, presented settlement terms earlier this year, it recognised Donestk and Luhansk in 2022, it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Russia sees its survival at issue and noone should be surprised if it puts its last card into play.

This war could completely raise Ukraine to the ground before the Russians retire leaving the West to think some more. This war could make refugees of us all.

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WHY FOLLOW THE STATES INTO YET ANOTHER WAR?

China and Russia are perhaps short-lived threats, as you've mentioned. Peter Zeihan does a demographics on each and it's not promising for them.

Plus, what is Johnson doing following Biden into war?

 There are two points here:

 America's interest (keep world free of peer competitors) is not the same as the UK's (which I make up here - security, new FTAs outside the EU, low-cost high value-added with BoP surplus, the fight against terrorism & immigration, science and technology intl co-operation incl with Russia).

And any idea on chances of success with this war?, ha ha ... 0.

Final point, ok there are three. Of course, we are getting all the propaganda conditioning us for yet another war, but, honestly, I don't give a hoot for Ukraine; and Putin can have it all, plus don't come grovelling to me Rishi for another tax rise.

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THE AMERICAN PLAN TO AVOID NUCLEAR WAR

The business about this being 1938 all over again. It's completely false. Versailles imposed repayments on Germany that it couldn't meet. It had no colonies and a whipping balance of payments deficit. The UK recognised this and from 1922 tried to loosen the deal Germany had been forced to sign. (Russia wasn't even present, though it lost Polant etc).

The non repayments were in part responsible for the Wall St crash. And the rise of Hitler, from 1938.

Chamberlain should not have thought that giving Germany Czechoslovakia would resolve the matter. Hitler wanted war and was angry at Chamberlain.

On the other hand, Putin doesn't want war. He'll just trash Ukraine from his side of the border I reckon and switch the country off for several generations.

If he can't have Ukraine and he can't trash the place, he'll lose at home, public opinion; so out will come the nukes. What on earth is NATO doing? What is its plan to stop the launch of dozens of nuclear missiles?

So that is the Americans' cunning plan: they tell you everything, and in real time, except what is really going on.

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RUSSIA IS ABOUT TO INVADE. REALLY?

20 February 2022

Russia is about to invade. Really? Or, the West could engage in diplomacy. It would be suicidal for Russia to invade. These days the idea is to "switch off" the target country using cyber and special op.s. - switch of comm.s, electricity, transport, poison Kiev and displace the govt and popn to Lviv.

The West can wait passively, do nothing, while Russia wrecks Ukraine. Or, the West could engage in diplomatic process, except there isn't one. There's some meeting on the 24th Feb, we'll see what that brings. Basically, it is America pursuing its policy from Wilson in 1916 where it said it would support Europe, all Europe, except Russia. 

It is Ukraine that refused to implement the agreement that it signed at Minsk. It refused to devolve to its Russian east where that region could have a veto on membership of NATO. Waiting for this moment no doubt where it has corralled US involvement. The sanctions on Russia were for what reasons? So as in life, this is not a one-sided case of Russian agression.

A diplomatic process means negotiate and compromise - isn't this normal? It could lead to resolution where Russia takes its fangs out of Ukraine, Ukraine devolves to its regions, NATO withdraws because la king support. Why not? Is it because of reasons we are not being made aware of, beneath this deluge of "misinformation", ie propaganda, from both sides?

Final point. A victory, an outright victory, for the West would end Putin's days and probably would be the end of Russia as a cohesive, independent, sovereign power. Would Moscow suffer this without recourse to nuclear weapons? What would the world look life after this war?             

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STRATEGY FOR UKRAINE

19 February 2022

Russian goals are

Survival and a say, a veto, in European security matters (NATO and US)

This means renegotiating the cold war settlement that it was forced to sign and have the States respect its word to Gorbachev

Russia's demands are

Ukraine and Georgia must not join NATO

No ballistic or offensive weapons on its doorstep

NATO pull back to pre-1997 borders

Russia's strategy

Force America to the negotiating table by massing for an invasion and continually upping the anti

Modern war is not about boots on the ground, it is cyber and covert ops that turn off a country, its power comm.s and transport and renders its population centres uninhabitable

No side can risk casualties because of public opinion

It is irrelevant talking g about pivoting to Asia, keeping the oil flowing or promising to support Europe, allies and open societies, talk is cheap, diplomatic process will work.

What can the West do?

The West does not have any initiative and it doesn't have a diplomatic process outside Minsk and would-be emperor Macron. It needs a process and begin by showing understanding for the Russian position.

Prepare the public.

Outcomes

A negotiated settlement where NATO withdraws and Russia recognises the independence of Ukraine

Or the country is trashed, eg split into three

With the risk of nuclear war.

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NUCLEAR DETERENCE MAY NO LONGER DETER

You think Russia - not Putin, Russia - as a nation can survive this? It is a form of premature suicide (Russia is already condemned by its demographics), so ask why. And you think Putin could survive a defeat? So why would he risk a wat?

 Seems obvious that over the coming weeks and months, Russia will wreck Ukraine. Russia is condemned to die whatever happens, and in the near-term, as demographics bite and they run out of women of child-bearing age. The West will not relent. So trashing Ukraine, which is of immense importance to Russia, is simply advancing that date.

It is a bit surprising that we havent heard more about China. How are they planning to profit from the break-up?

And what is the West's plan, post Russian collapse?

Lukashenko must be worried about his position too.

We should all be very worried because Russia, providential power, nuclear power, has been pushed to this final last stand and won't go down without a fight. I believe we are in a situation where the assumptions behind the theory of nuclear deterrence will no longer be valid. 

No-one talks about the road to the destruction of Ukraine or the collapse of Russia and what lies in store for us.

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THE WEST HAS TWO ENEMIES, NOT THREE

                 The potential loss of Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia. Existential. About its very existence. It would use nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence doesn't work in this situation.

Gorbachev 

Baker vpromised Gorbach y promistsin that NATO would not annexe former russian satellites on 22 Feb 1990 - the West neither confirms nor denies.

Ukraine cannot join NATO since it has been a country at war since 2014.

This is another of those deeply stupid situations created by the intl liberal elite (some say "impetialists"). The blob and the bleub. People are largely fed up with globalisation, immigration and gross inequalities of wealth. The future is about defending borders, nation states, self sufficiency, owncivilisation, equality of opportunity, fairness: blob take note, the populists are after you

The West has two enemies: China and Islam. Russia is part of the West (current policy is tactical).             

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RUSSIA WILL BE GONE IN A DECADE

Russia will be gone within a decade according to Peter Zeihan. Stephen Kotkin explains from a historical perspective. Links below.

It runs out of young people to man an army and economy. If true, what will happen then?

What's interesting is, if this happens, into what parts will it break? Who'll take them? Will China move West?

There's the Artic passage to consider: mineral wealth, belt and road.

Maybe the West is planning to march on to Moscow. Even China from the North. Or maybe the West has not thought that far ahead and is taking life one decade at a time.

We're all running out of time. It's demographics. China and Russia are condemned. It reminds me of the games of boules played on the beach at Nice. All these old men launching their cannon balls, then disputing the results with tape measures.

"Be careful what you wish for", à warning to the West that sums it all up.

Fact is, the intl liberal elite have led us a right  merry dance since 1991, with all their globalisation and immigration and gross inequality of wealth, and it's time to come back to the idea of the nation state, a civilisation, a people.

It's the same blob that took us into Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc, on the basis of human rights and democracy. Trump isn’t there to stop this unwanted attention from making yet another catastrophic cock-up.

The more I think about it, the more stupid this war seems. The enemies of the West are China and Islam. Russia is part of the West.

https://youtu.be/h4Yrn29v5F8

https://youtu.be/D8owY8TBvzI

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A RETURN TO CONSERVATIVE VALUES

6 February 2022

Yes, that wasn't very well expressed, was it. Better to say "turn to", than "return to". It's about organising and directing Boris's undoubted talents, filling in the weaknesses.

Boris' pragmatism, shall we call it, has been very useful, and not just to him. What is needed now for the country to progress - and a possible second term for Boris as a matured leader - is steady, unfailing, value-based policy making. It's about values, instinct and conviction.

Boris needs a long term vision for the kind of society he'd like to see and a steady plan for getting there. This is about Tory values and beliefs:  individual freedom, equal opportunities (though hopefully less HR - Human Resources and, yes, less Human Rights, but a safety net is necessary for capitalism to survive), yes to private property and ownership and all the incentives to innovation productivity and personal wealth creation this brings, leave decision-making as far as possible to the private sector especially SMEs and local actions, low taxes and a secondary role for the state wherever possible. 

More trust, choice and freedom for the individual, less for the state. This is what really marks the difference between the West and totalitarian regimes in Eurasia and Asia. Important in the conflict to come. Boris is not a wilderness politician though.

Now although Johnson is short on principles, the hope is that the massive campaigning skills, enthusiasm and his will to get things done, can be more properly channelled with the sense of deep conviction and long-term purpose these new guys on his team can bring.

So we get the idea - strengthen up the values and integrity, keep the campaigning and leadership.

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MALI PUTIN UKRAINE

4 February 2022

I'd like to see Boris involved with Putin. Not in the Ukraine, but in Mali.

Putin has sent his mercenaries - the Wagner group they're called - into Mali. First, in go the geologists. They suss out the lie of the land. In Mali, its Lithium they are after.

The Mali govt - completely illegitimate band of gangsters after a putsch in April last year - are paying Wagner 9,000,000 Euros a month for protection from the jihadists and other mercenary groups, while they plunder their country. Wagner hands the extraction of the country's mineral wealth to Russian companies .... and Putin creams off of course.

Not only that. There's a proto-European army failing out there for lack of German support. This could be Europe taking responsibility for its own defense! France, Denmark, Estonia and Finland.

This also ties back to Ukraine - Ukraine is the other end of Putin's Mali deal.

Boris is just the man to have the UK involved. And the DT would have a genuine story to report on, test its journalists' real mettle, sell copy and be proud of its content.

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SISYPHEAN SNIFFING MISSIONS

2 February 2022

                 Look at the behaviour of France, Denmark, the Czeck Republic and Estonia.

Look at Russia's Wagner Group in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and maybe Niger.

What is France doing there?

What about the collapse of Libya and freely available arms.

Why has Europe, led by France, withdrawn from central West Africa, letting Russia (led by its geologists) in and abandoning the people to the jihadists and mercenaries.

We give Russia free hand there, with the result that millions will be displaced and hundreds of thousands of refugees who'll make their way to eg Tunisia and Lampedusa, Europe, France and the UK.

Yet we clamp down on Russia who has this time a legitimate interest in Ukraine.

These are the stories the DT could report on. Instead, we gate partygate or russian planes on their sisyphean sniffing missions.             

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