Omicron looks like it could be a busted flush: yes, transmission is more rapid; yes, immune escape doubles number of infections; but no, it is near harmless, Putin called it "a natural vaccine".
Sajid Javid, 10 December : "Very soon, in the days and weeks that lie ahead, if, as I think is likely, we see many more infections and this variant [omincron] becomes the dominant variant, there will be less need to have any kind of travel restrictions at all."
News from Guatang 9 December:
This from a doctor in Gauteng, yesterday 9 December
The case for immune escape and quick spread is well made. The important remaining attribute is virulence, deadliness, morbidity, whatever we decide to call it. Is it sufficiently milder to the degree that it makes up for many people getting the disease at the same time? The data we have from a territory already overrun with infections suggests an overwhelming yes.
The data from the Gauteng province in South Africa, a real life case study of 15 million people, is that the degree to which symptoms are less severe more than make up for the immune escape and increased transmissibility that would otherwise have been a concern. And that is in a much less vaccinated population. Hospitals are still performing elective surgeries at full capacity. I can assure you in Covid waves in SA that has not been the norm.
Case growth has now slowed substantially in this province in the span of a week, indicating that cases are about to peak. Goverment modelling is 2nd week of December, the independent Discovery Group modelling was similar.
That would be the first Covid wave since the start of the pandemic, that has peaked without a surge in oxygen use. The CEO of the largest private hospital group Netcare says with few exceptions, most will probably be cared for in primary care in this wave. His observations are consistent with published data, consistent with Mediclinic (2nd largest group), and consistent with the SAMRC study in state hospitals.
I don't think people let it sink in what that means. As per my other comment below, 1 million cases per day, as scary as it sounds, is not a problem if the difference in severity is what has been observed. Even if all the above on symptoms is complete hogwash, the strain is so transmissible that these measures won't make any difference.
1 million per day is not as bad as it sounds if the reduction in severity is as substantial as it appears to be.
The Gauteng province in South Africa has over 10 000 reported cases per day, if we assume 1 in 20 detection rate as Javid does for the UK (optimistic for SA, but argument's sake let's do), then the province has 200,000 cases per day, 5 times less than a million, in a population that is also about 5 times less than the UK.
Hospitals are far from full, the rise there was was mostly due to incidental positives amongst patients admitted for other reasons. Numbers are still lower than the lows of the 2nd/3rd inter wave period.
Elective surgeries are happening, oxygen demand has not surged at all.
The one link below is the largest private hospital group, the second a study by the SA Medical Research Council in state hospitals. They independently observed the same thing:
https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/545230/omicron-symptoms-are-far-milder-says-netcare/
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
Case numbers, now almost 100% Omicron, have gone through the roof in Gauteng, not "early days" anymore.
Sage says even with a modest reduction in severity, hospitals will face pressure due to sheer numbers.
The Gauteng province has those sheer numbers. But yet the hospitals are not facing any pressure whatsoever, in fact it does not look like the midst of a Covid wave.
The reduction in severity is not modest, it is an irrational assumption given the evidence. South Africa is not the UK, true. It is much less vaccinated, and it has not had a wave driven by the Alpha variant, which is also the B.1.1 lineage like Omicron, and prevalence of HIV is high. All of these differences, if anything, favours the UK.
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