THE UKRAINE

18 November 2021

"American and British intelligence officials last week showed Ukraine’s top brass satellite images and electronic intercepts indicating a “high probability” of military attack this winter".

How likely is a military attack, in reality, and what is Russia really looking to achieve? Is Putin leveraging the energy weapon to try to reverse Europe’s green deal or is this really about preparations for an attack on Ukraine?

Russia is a declining super-power, with an aging population, GDP smaller than Italy's and a narrow economic base.

This creates continuing identity, status and security issues at home and abroad. 

So it is neither as secure as other established states, nor as economically dynamic as rising national powers I Europe and further East.

Its region is the former USSR and its status as regional hegemon rests on its permanent membership of the UN, its nuclear arsenal and its laurels as a former empire.