BREXIT TRADE WARS

The key point is the threat of war. Not real war of course, but a trade war. So what would this look like?

The EU has previous as it triggered article 16 over its sense in January that the UK was smuggling vaccine supplies out of its AZ factories in  Belgium. What shocked many of us was that the measures in the Brexit protocol designed to protect peace in Northern Ireland were here being repurposed in a completely different theatre of war.

If (when) the UK uses art. 16, it is very likely the EU will announce plans to suspend the trade agreement altogether. Under the rules, the EU’s response must be proportionate.

It could, for example, target Scotland by inposing tariffs on  Scottish salmon and Scotch whisky just to further wind up Holyrood-Westminster relations. In the dispute with the US over steel and other products, the EU imposed a 56% tariff on Harley-Davidson bikes and levies on bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, targetting Trump-supporting states.

The fishing row has focused minds on the impact on consumers when France threatened to check every lorry coming from Britain into European ports. We were even regaled with absurd stories of EU officials confiscating ham sandwiches and refusing forms sincerely filled inwith the wrong coloured ink.

If France, Ireland and the Benelux countries really do stop every lorry, supply chains before Christmas would be severely stretched. This would indeed be a declaration of war on the people of the UK. That would be a bridge too far.