THE UKRAINE

18 November 2021

"American and British intelligence officials last week showed Ukraine’s top brass satellite images and electronic intercepts indicating a “high probability” of military attack this winter".

How likely is a military attack, in reality, and what is Russia really looking to achieve? Is Putin leveraging the energy weapon to try to reverse Europe’s green deal or is this really about preparations for an attack on Ukraine?

Russia is a declining super-power, with an aging population, GDP smaller than Italy's and a narrow economic base.

This creates continuing identity, status and security issues at home and abroad. 

So it is neither as secure as other established states, nor as economically dynamic as rising national powers I Europe and further East.

Its region is the former USSR and its status as regional hegemon rests on its permanent membership of the UN, its nuclear arsenal and its laurels as a former empire.

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TIGHT LABOUR MARKET : WHY SO MANY OVER 50s ARE QUITTING

17 November 2021

The tight labour market is not directly a result of covid, nor Brexit, but due to younger people staying on for more studies and older people przferring early retirement.

Here is the thinking behind one older person's decision to quit work. (Extract is presented with all punctuation as-found.)

===

Cool. Think we should leave Britain to the Woke young now. As a bit of an older worker am thinking of moving abroad anyway to retire, with my equity, inheritance, pension and savings, 15+ years early. 

Personally, speaking, the reason I'd leave the job market (if not currently working for a complete outlier of a company that time seems to have forgot) is:

- The average workplace is full of children. I don't want to be their boss anymore and I certainly don't want to be their peer.

- The average workplace treats people like children. With two further degrees and 20 years experience, Im still not trusted, really, to work a bit later and come in a bit later or just get stuff done in any sort of corp environment....Its not personal, I know, but ,,,, 

- Corporate forced fun which tells me the workers are not even trusted to generate their own motivations for being there.

- Meetings. God-awful meetings. (Listening to crappy marketing ideas created by children that tend to revolve around fridge magnets. That, or rubbish social media stunts with animals). Save me!

- Most workplaces are now Woke. So, the joyful purpose of work to me was to be creative in pursuit of innovations that make the world better for people, even if in modest but meaningful ways; to contribute to markets and progress. If that is compromised with the pursuit of vanity schemes to make self-appointed victims feel momentarily justified in their self-pity, then its not really very rewarding as a purpose.

- Tax. 

Let them work out the mess they've created. They've sucked fun, authenticity and purpose from many workplaces, and employers have been facile enough to let them do it... Good luck folks.

Couldn't put it better! The utter joylessness of the woke, eco-lunatics and the rabid gender politics tripe simply continues to drive the common sense brigade out of the workplace. Let these idiots arrive at the catastrophe they are creating (supported by a 4th rate PM and his so called government) by themselves. Meanwhile, watch the debt free and asset rich 50+ crew hang up the boots early and live their lives free from this left wing bilge.

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THE CURRENT POLISH PM : GOOD GUY OR BAD GUY?

17 November 2021

The answer might surprise you. (Extract from article recovered 16 Nov)

But he got the economy roaring ahead, stopped the mass emigration (Poland now issues more work visas than any other EU state) started the welfare state, kicked out all Moscow-trained military and diplomats, started rearmament — Abrams and F35s are coming, doubling the army — brought in large tax cuts, shut down the humungous Russian mafia fuel smuggling that Prime Minister Donald Tusk supported ($25 billion for the Kremlin), and has pushed forward major and long overdue infrastructure investments.

Previously, Poland had to put up with obviously fake economic stats, no social security and astonishingly positive media coverage … as two million Poles headed for the door.

Global media coverage of Poland comes mainly from one news stable — Adam Michnik, the brother of a Stalinist hanging judge (Stefan - Google him). So, take every media article with a huge pinch of salt. The editor of the Economist, for example … she helped keep the Commies in power after the fall of Communism!! Zanny Minton-Beddoes. Nothing is as it seems.

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ZEMMOUR ON BREXIT AS APPLIED TO FRANCE

14 November 2021

Frexit is not possible.

Asked about the Macron administration’s apparent desire to “punish” the UK over Brexit and, as his prime minister recently put it, to “show there is more damage to leaving the Union than staying in it”, he was scathing.

“That is the criminal mistake of the French government and European Commission. The British, inventors of modern democracy, left because they could no longer take being tyrannised by Brussels technocrats and European judges.

“Instead of seeking to understand the reasons why, the French government wants to punish them. It’s stupid and shows they have understood nothing of the current period, where similar sentiments are cropping up throughout Europe,” he said.

But he stopped short of calling for France to leave the EU.

“This period is over. France isn’t England,” he said. “We don’t have the same geography and history as you. You won all your wars and that’s not our case. We lost, won and lost and that has given our people a different intuition and sensitivity.

“You have faith in yourselves that we once had but lost. So I think the French people are not mature for this type of adventure.”

https://youtu.be/hIkdW1emHpc

https://youtu.be/uUuBI3f-UEA

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STUDENT LOANS

University students are the very lifeblood of the UK economy. 

This govt under johnson is splashing cash around to many millions of worthless types, like there is no tomorrow, which there may well not be; it is letting thousands more worthless types scramble up UK beaches every week to join their friends in luxury hotel accomodation, at my expense, while awaiting their passports.

And you mean to tell me the govt makes these kids pay for a world-beating education? And pay again in higher tax take? And pay again and again in housing costs inflated by reckless monetary policies, in order for these students to provide a prosperous future for us all and intelligent home-grown talent for generations to come ?

How does education help a country? The level of education is measurable. It is a leading indicator of a country's success relative to other countries. Because an educated workforce opens the door to science, innovation and technology. Technology, in turn, is the bedrock for a competitive economy. So in cause-effect chains, begin by educating your children and your workforce. The effect will be greater productivity through mass-scale application of scientific discovery, which is called technology. This results in a world beating, export-led economy.

I am a believer in a small state with low taxes, but charging individual youngsters for an investment in this country's future is not going to make us great.

Education is a common good. You cannot foresee those, amongst a rising generation, generation Y, will go on to produce world beating ideas, technologies and leadership. If you cannot pick winners at school, you must educate all and not restrict education to, or encourage only, only those who can pay. Student loans squander our future and the futures of our kids. 

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END THIS EU INTERFERENCE

10 November 2021

Look, you cannot have an outside entity imposing a customs border down the middle of a sovereign state. Neither can you have an outside entity assuming the powers of a supreme Court over a sovereign state.

It was agreed to to avoid a hard border between UK and EU and a potential return of "the troubles" (those in the South of the island objecting to those in the North remaining attached to Britain).

Agreed to, but only if checks were kept reasonable.

It was a desperate situation the UK found itself in and the EU have exacerbated this to the max for purely political purposes: they want to show other members of their alliance that quitting carries a greater cost than staying. They are sad and jealous and fearful of an independent UK.

Cause of war.  It is not just absurd to have the EU interfere in the UK's affairs of state (it is not just customs, it goes as far as competition and state subsidy policies), but totally intolerable to have the EU twist the knife in this deep wound.

Solution.  Put the border where it belongs and administer controls through advanced notice of border crossings, electronic surveillance at the time of crossing, flying customs checks that can take place on any kerbside (see Andorra-France for model).

Plus, an independent dispute resolution panel to which the EU (ECJ) is welcome to argue its case.

This is nothing more than common sense and mutual respect.

The alternative of the EU building control towers inside its border is too horrible to contemplate, even though walls seem to be going up everywhere. The EU playing a Belarus at the NI frontier is another potential horror that I wouldn't put past them frankly.

At the moment, it seems like the extremists are in charge.

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BREXIT TRADE WARS

The key point is the threat of war. Not real war of course, but a trade war. So what would this look like?

The EU has previous as it triggered article 16 over its sense in January that the UK was smuggling vaccine supplies out of its AZ factories in  Belgium. What shocked many of us was that the measures in the Brexit protocol designed to protect peace in Northern Ireland were here being repurposed in a completely different theatre of war.

If (when) the UK uses art. 16, it is very likely the EU will announce plans to suspend the trade agreement altogether. Under the rules, the EU’s response must be proportionate.

It could, for example, target Scotland by inposing tariffs on  Scottish salmon and Scotch whisky just to further wind up Holyrood-Westminster relations. In the dispute with the US over steel and other products, the EU imposed a 56% tariff on Harley-Davidson bikes and levies on bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, targetting Trump-supporting states.

The fishing row has focused minds on the impact on consumers when France threatened to check every lorry coming from Britain into European ports. We were even regaled with absurd stories of EU officials confiscating ham sandwiches and refusing forms sincerely filled inwith the wrong coloured ink.

If France, Ireland and the Benelux countries really do stop every lorry, supply chains before Christmas would be severely stretched. This would indeed be a declaration of war on the people of the UK. That would be a bridge too far.  

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NEW TAPERING

120 billion dollars a month on asset purchases. Hard to get your head round that and how artificial the market has become. Maybe it's just Keynsian!

It seems weird, but these govts think that debt is absolutely no problem, they will never default, and the markets know this, because they can print the repayments.

They also think that what they print is owed to them (!), it is a call they have on us through taxation, that we have no choice but to pay.

The only limit to printing is, these govts think, from inflation, as demand starts to outstrip supply (of goods, capital, labour).

So as reality (inflation) is now undermining their principles, will they change their theory? No no no, just deny that there is any inflation.

We hope they're right, and inflation really is temporary while demand/supply gets back into balance.

But as a warning, from what I read, equities will generally suffer if inflation gets to 5%.

Aaaah, I hear you say, is that: RPI, CPI or CPIH? And how are they fiddled.

So what will get us? Debt? Covid? Climate change? Net zero? The Chinese?

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MORE ABOUT "THE NEW NORMAL"

4 November 2021

"what a complete pile of delusional nonsense ..  what does this so called "NEW NORMAL" actually mean?"

Please add a little water to whatever you are drinking!

"New normal" means the changes in how we live due to the virus, that look like becoming permanent. 

For example, most people in public enclosed spaces will continue to wear a mask. Another example: we replumbed the Internet so people could work from home (WFH) and where that's been an improvement (less journey time, less costly office space, for an improved productivity), it's likely to stay.  Some jokingly call it "living at work".

For the travel and tourism business, looks like passengers will expect temperature-checking, infection testing, more safety and hygiene at airports, on flights, no meals, controls on how you can use spacewhat, 

a more eco-conscious mindset, no more 9 to 5, more tech supporting change (as always) eg online application for e-visas.

Not all changes will stick because the success of vaccine programs will mean we can return to the old normal, how things used to be. E.g. planes won't be flying half empty anymore.

And there are other motors for change going on at the same time - climate-change & net-zero, Wokism - that mix in with changes in our behaviour introduced by covid - eg people will holiday nearer home, more interference from governments in citizens' freedoms, higher taxes to pay for the fight against the virus.

Change is constant, but covid, climate change and the woke are fast changing how we do things...and these changes look like being here to stay. These new ways of daily living are called "The New Normal".

The TAT is trying to understand these changes so as to adapt Thai tourism. 

One big big change is to recognise that visitor numbers are likely to be permanently down. If tourism's contribution to GDP is to return to the old normal, each tourist must spend more (that'sthe Thai way of thinking). Hence a move from mass tourism to millionaire tourism.

Will plans for millionaire tourism work out? Or are they, as you suggest,  "delusional"? That's a good question!

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COMMANDO LESSONS WE CAN ALL USE

3 November 2021

Commando training lessons we can all use

1. To ensure long-term success, you need to be able to adapt and change quickly. It’s the best way to be sure of sustained personal growth.
2. There are two kinds of motivation – intrinsic (when you understand that a task, such as exercise, is doing you good) and extrinsic (when you gain a reward such as money for work). The key is to create a crossover, when a task performed for money or a favour becomes an enjoyable discipline that you can appreciate is doing you good.
3. Never lose sight of the end goal and load it with value, writing down the positives and repeatedly visualising life after your goal has been achieved. This will steady the ship when temporary disillusionment creeps in.
4. It is what you do in the shadows that makes you unstoppable when the spotlight is on; master the mundane and the easy, enjoyable aspects of life become effortless.
5. In new environments or situations of restricted living means, it is essential to “take charge of what you can control’ and ‘establish new routines”. Don’t succumb to new surroundings, own them.

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CARE IN THE HOME OR CARE IN A HOME?

3 November 2021

In weighing up the two options, as well as the wishes of the elderly person, consider the standard of care on offer, the stress on the family and the costs.

A few points worth making.

The standards in care homes are high these days, thanks to the CQC. And the owners of care homes are not ripping off their guests, though they are in business.

Care at home can easily come to be twice as expensive as care in a home - £8k a month v. £4k in a typical home.

When the older person bought their home, they probably did so on a mortgage of three times salary. Today that's seven. The home is a family asset and a family fortune should not be squandered as it will be needed by the grandchildren to start their own families.

Trying to care for someone at home, when you have no experience and busy lives, can really tear a family apart.

Best to choose a friendly home nearby where you can visit and enjoy each other's company, as far as possible. The standards of care will be consistently higher. And the costs will be lower.

The older person will adapt more easily if done gently and in good time. And they should be happier in a well-run and social environment.

Let your decision come from a fair evaluation of the options rather than emotions such as (quite possibly misplaced) guilt. Remember that the future belongs to those who remain. The interests, wants and needs of all involved count. 

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TEN RULES FOR EVERY TRADER

10 Rules For Every Trader

These are rules handed down, honed and handed on.

Trading. So, not investing, not gambling either.

1. Price doesn't HAVE to do ANYTHING.

A common misconception among very new traders is that skilled traders are able to 'predict' the market. This is not true. This is not even possible. As a trader, your job is to deal in probabilities and risk-management

2. Ranges are more common than breakouts.

In any given market, for every successful breakout and acceptance of new price, you will find 3-5 failed breakouts. New traders often prefer breakout trades because they happen fast, they're exciting, and there's a certain thrill to profiting off of a sudden move that you know caught a lot of other traders with their pants down. Remember that price action stays rangebound by default, until a demand imbalance pushes the auction process to a new range. Range bound trading is a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make.

3. You will be wrong at least 50% of the time. Keep your risk tight!

So, it's not necessarily true that you'll be wrong more than you are right, however as a new trader it's highly probable. This is however the mindset that I adopt when I am evaluating the risk of a potential trade. With any trade I take, I assume that I've got a greater chance of being wrong than being right. When you think about your trading this way, I guarantee that you'll tighten up your risk management game.

4. Check your ego at the door.

You're here to make money. That's all. The market is not here to offer you self-validation. The market doesn't care about your need to prove anything. Stay humble, and always keep the possibility of being wrong in the forefront of your mind

5. Take what is offered.

This goes hand in hand with rule one and rule four. A common saying is 'follow the signals, not the cents'. I've let winners turn into losers in the past because I FELT (rule 4) like price action HAD (rule 1) to go farther before rolling over. Take what the market offers, and see the next rule.

6. There will ALWAYS be another opportunity.

FOMO (fear of missing out) is very real. It will also lead you to get cut to pieces in a leveraged market. If you missed your ideal entry, don't chase. You didn't just miss the last and only good trade in the world. Think of your risk capital like ammunition. Save it for tomorrow

7. Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers.

What more can I say? If you're adding to a losing position with the intent to move your average entry price, you're already in trouble. Every time you think about adding to a position, I want you to hear this rule in your head. "Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers." Close that losing trade. Save your capital for the next opportunity.

8. Be greedy with your entries: fight for price.

If your trading thesis requires price to reach a certain level to validate your entry criteria, then wait for that level. Remember, don't FOMO into a trade. See rule six.

9. Be patient with your entries: Being early is the same as being wrong.

Similar to rule 8, no FOMO! Have you ever taken a trade and then been stopped out before the market makes the move you were expecting? You're trying to predict the market instead of reacting to what it is showing you. Slow down, and remember that acceptance of price is validated by both time and volume .

10. Hope is NOT a strategy!

This is the difference between trading and gambling. Good trading looks very boring. As a general rule of thumb, if it's exciting, you're probably gambling and not trading. If you don't have a solid 'if this, then that' thesis about the market you're looking to trade, then you don't have a trade to make

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