PETROL SHORTAGES : THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT

Petrol - there's all you need to take your kids to school. We are told it's in the this country somewhere, just not in the right places. So it's only haulage.

We are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global Britain-times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.

But as you say, will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for cause, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems.

Looking at why the army is being sent in and why temporary visas (as it is only a short-term pb) are being issued (and already extended):

working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!

We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.

It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).

More short term problems, but even these, can we see any better? Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, but that is much more expensive. Germany is relying onxoal and Putin!

Then theres the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will my son rehab the flat he's just bought? What effect housing 300,000 starts?

The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.

 So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term plus a possible base rate rise early next year. America same same with the threat to stock markets from tapering.

 Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor  substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties NI rise to threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).

And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.

 Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no int  rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of any one country.