BRACE FOR INTEREST RATE RISES

10 October 2021

Petrol - isnt this where fears of inflation started? There's all you need to take your kids to school, we are told, it's in the country somewhere, just not in the right places. So it's only haulage.

Later, we are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global-Britain times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.

But will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for the causes, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems. Of course.

Looking at why the army is being sent in and why temporary visas (as it is only a short-term problem) are being issued (and already extended):

working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!

We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises both 2.5% NI (yes, 2.5%) and local authority tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to recession, debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.

We can imagine low interest rates and high inflation, followed by high interest rates and recession. If high-wage, capital is going to replace labour and put those low-wage often immigrant, workers on the dole, at taxpayer expense.

It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).

Can we see what's happening through this glare of more and more short-term problems? Saunders is interesting

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/09/brace-interest-rate-rises-warns-bank-england-rate-setter/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr. 

Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, adding to supply problems and green is much more expensive. Germany is now back to relying on coal and on Putin!

Then there's the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will a young person rehab the flat they've just bought? What effect on the target of 300,000 housing starts?

The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, showing graphically how everything is connected to everything and everywhere there are knife-edges,resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.

Food prices and staples. Commodities. Is this the start of a new supercycle?

So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term, plus a possible base rate rise early next year, possibly even this year 2021. America same same. Plus if we enter the land of 5% inflation there will be the threat to stock markets, not just imminent tapering.

Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor  substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties that threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).

And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.

Only worries and questions. No real answers. Yet everyone is talking of recession. And the Prince of Norway offers the UK help with food and fuel. That's quite humiliating.

Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no interest rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of management or politicians.