Saturday, 30 October 2021

BIG BROTHER BORIS

Fortunately alternatives to big brother Boris are coming through

Farage was rather an Arthur Daly type figure, or a silky-tongued used car salesman.

Farage, now I think about it, was always kicking the tyres of govt and finding fault. He was pretty much always right, but he didn't have a coherent alternative.

There are serious politicians in that they have a vision. Trice  Burnham (Labour). Reform. 

The Tory party was founded on the idea that now we are giving the vote to the working classes, so we must buy them out, in order that we can get on with private enterprise. That's the vision and the values: they're private sector, small state, freedom, low taxes, survival of the fittest.

Those ideas are exactly the opposite of Boris'. Boris' mission, what he's doing, he wants to take over everywhere and spend everything on a perpetual party. He's totally got the wrong end of the stick  He is a ruinous person. Power has gone to his head and transformed the clown into a megalomaniac.

Pretty soon we'll see tall buildings draped with his image.

Friday, 29 October 2021

0 STRATEGIC DEFINITION

29 October 2021

stage 0

1 Strategic Definition 
1.1 Purpose

By the end of this stage 0, you will have identified and made the business case V1 for purchasing a property and established the objectives and risks for rehabing works. Begin writing down your MVV and budget and configuring the Property Selector tool ready to log the start-up data for a list of candidate properties.
The Strategic Definition stage 0 is about finding the property opportunity, identifying high-level rehab requirements, the resources required to achieve the project objectives, the project risks and the project costs and timescale. These are V1 estimates that you will return to in further iterations in subsequent stages.
It needs strategic thinking ie forming a long-term vision and mapping whatever resources you can get hold of to take you from the as-is property as it is when you buy it, to the to-be rehab ready for handover and use. ‘Use’ may be sale, rental or owner-occupation.
1.2 Steps
Here are the steps in this phase.

1. The starting point is an understanding of your Mission Vision Values. 

‘Mission’ is what you can do (property: buy, improve, use)
‘Vision’ is where you want to be (own architecture practise / regular property upgrades).
‘Values’ are your ethical guides or the standards that govern your motivation, thinking and actions. Values come from how you were brought up and what have learnt in life.

2. You need an idea of what you are looking for, your Search criteria. These will be about the property and its environs, your spend envelope and the value you expect to achieve. 

3. A quick Condition survey or rough schedule of dilapidations will let you estimate the cost of the works and will start the property rehab Requirements definition for the chosen property. These V1 requirements will later feed into detailed drawings and spec.s and quantity surveying, before being ready for putting out to tender.

4. How long do you expect the project to last? This will support the initial Project Plan. And how much do you have to spend? This is your Budget. 

The condition survey, will get broken out by phase and trade and will help with eg establishing your maximum auction bid, the borrowing you might need and for how long, affordable procurement, staged payments you make to contractors as the work proceeds…

5. You need to appreciate what you personally can do, as a function of your skills & competencies and your availability; and what competencies you will need to call in. 
What sort of abilities does stage 0 require? Stage 0 requires strategic thinking, some management consulting expertise (how organisations and project work), whole life-cycle analysis (purchase, rehab, maintenance, disposal), sustainability guidance (“meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”: energy source, flexibility and durability, waste management, water management, material selection and pollution), whole life-cycle analysis, sustainability guidance, financial modelling, design thinking
You will be making the property function your way (electrics, plumbing, roof and external walls…), but there are also non-functional requirements such as health and safety and many planning and building regulations (constraints) to adhere to. 
You will assemble a Project Team, including perhaps a named resource at the local authority (planning, building reg.s). The roles and responsibilities vary through the phases and one person may wear several hats. Be clear by naming these positions, creating a profile, identifying who makes the decisions, how they can be changed (change control), who does the actions, and in what format instructions will be issued.
You will need a Communication Plan and a meeting room, likely digital, to exchange and store information.

6. You will benefit at all times from Feedback from your studies (skills) and experience (competencies), and from competent people whom you can freely consult with on other projects (experts, maybe from work).

7. There should be a go/no-go Milestone Review. A thumbs-up and you can move to the next stage - a building project has been set up and different skills will then be needed.

1.3 Deliverables

• Requirements – used for project execution: quality, change control
• Light Business Case – used for managing the project: cost, timescale.

1.4 Supporting Tools

• Property Selector
• Templates




Thursday, 28 October 2021

THE 2021 AUTUMN BUDGET

Rishi is totally brilliant, but he is not serious; and that's the trouble with this govt, led by Bojo. 

They don't have any skin in the game as they are fabulously rich themselves already. They just want to stay in office and the best way to do that is to play the Master of Ceremonies at a party.

Rishi should have been wearing a party hat and carrying a magic wand. 

When the people turn to hard work, thrift and moral decency, so will the govt. But the people are in party mood after the pandemic.

I reckon it's more than that, not temporary at all. There seems to be a structural change in the culture. 

There are no true-grit politicians negotiating what's best, taking people to places maybe they dont want to go but it's best for them,  showing leadership. 

And as to the commons, the people are dominated by a load of third-worlders these days, making hay. The govt plays to this fecklessness. It isn't serious.

We don't have real politicians anymore, only DJs, Masters of Ceremonies. Where was Rishi's party hat and magic wand? Open the box Rishi.

Monday, 25 October 2021

SECRETS OF GIVING ADVICE

Secrets of giving advice

Can you remember times when you tookgood advice ... and didnt?

So, starts, as usual by listening.

Asking open questions
Asking questions that also allow the respondent to see a benefit for themselves

Waiting for them to ask you for advice.

Telling of other people or yourself, not give instructions!

Don't care about if it is followed or not.
Dont mind if they do something different!!!

Compare:
Coaching
Consulting


Sunday, 24 October 2021

NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL

"The way forward is for the UK and EU to cooperate in measures to curb the flow of non compliant goods in either direction across the Irish land border, while leaving each side free to make and follow its own laws and rules within its own territory."

That says nothing.

The answer is a digital border, where it should be, and the technology is here ready to deploy.

 The EU is The Single Market, which is the so-called "four freedoms", broken out into a cascade of deeply trivial rules (300 in the case of the NIP), policed by the EU's own court. 

That's fine for members, but not at all fine for non-members. 

 Any disputes can go to independent arbitration. That is not controversial.

 This whole dispute can be sorted out using a digital border and independent dispute resolution.

 Why hasn't this been done? 

THE CASE FOR THE NATION STATE

From Poland's perspective, the case against an EU federal Europe is the case for the primacy of the nation state.

But from the EU point of view, this is an existential threat. It is quite unlike Gernany's objection from its constitutional court.

 

The EU is built on the Single Market. From these so-called "four freedoms" flow all the rules that so annoy lovers of freedom for their own parliaments. These rules are judged and enforced by their top court, the ECJ.

 Without the ECJ, member states would be free to do as they please, choosing cake when it comes to subsidies, for example, or sandwiches when it's a matter of economic policy for their own country.

 So Poland's challenge to à federal Europe is taken very seriously. The response from the Commission and EU Parliament isn't yet decided: go in hard with, in effect, sanctions and fines; or be more accommodating by finding out precisely what the current govt in Poland wants to do and perhaps relaxing those rules in a more flexible approach.

VALUES

I'd say one more thing. This conflict is not simply Poland asserting itself as a nation state and challenging the loss of sovereignty implied by a union of states into a federation. This is about very different sets of values.

Let us not forget that it was only 30 years ago that Poland escaped Vassal status in one empire. No surprise that it wouldn't want to join another.

 With Hungary and the Czech republic, these peoples are not interested in LGBTetc rights or the EU an for "gender equality", they do not believe that abortion is a good thing and as to identity politics, it’s not transphobic for Poland to want to recognise only men and women and uphold their traditional, more conservative values and way of life.

 Let's get real a little. The EU intends a law to “protect the rights of rainbow families so that their parenthood and same-sex partnership is recognised throughout the union.”

How will that down with the vast majority of the people of Poland? And if the Polish govt refuses to obey, it will be in conflict with the EU and will get taken before the ECJ.  

Saturday, 23 October 2021

OUR INHERITANCE


23 October 2021
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/23/parents-occasionally-abrupt-children-may-guilty-mild-neglect/

Who says you can't take it with you?
 
The costs of care in the home can reach £2,000 a week, or as much as twice the bill for care in a private care home. So it is quite possible for a parent to burn through the family fortune, leaving the family or beneficiaries with nothing. Nothing?

In those final years and months,  much and increasing stress in the family can be expected, dementia setting in, personalities crystallise out on the dark side, clashes are inevitable, so that the defunct's only legacy could be a family split asunder.

The future belongs to those who remain. But here, the only inheritance will be a family where each goes their own way.

Who says you can't take it with you?
 
The costs of care in the home can reach £2,000 a week, or as much as twice the bill for care in a private care home. So it is quite possible for a parent to burn through the family fortune, leaving the family or beneficiaries with nothing.

Could carers at home provide the same standards as procedures on tap in a care home?

Whilst many families and the elderly themselves wish to be near their loved ones, in familiar surroundings, many will not and many will prefer the social opportunities available in a care home and would welcome their family in relaxed circumstances.
Because along the way in those final years and months,  much and increasing stress in the family can be expected, personalities seen to crystallise out on the dark side, clashes will be inevitable, so that the defunct's only legacy could be a family split asunder.
This will be their inheritance.

Thursday, 21 October 2021

ACCESS THAILAND

  • Passport or travel document with a validity not less than 6 months
  • Visa application form (filled out)
  • One(1) recent 4x6cm. photograph of the applicant
  • Round-trip air ticket or e-ticket (paid in full)
  • Proof of financial means (20,000 baht per person/40,000 baht per family)
  • Proof of Hotel or private accommodation

After receiving your Thailand tourist visa and certificate of entry from the Thai Embassy or consulate, the traveler must prepare the following documents before traveling to Thailand:

  • Certificate of Entry (COE)
  • Valid visa in your passport
  • Declaration Form
  • Medical Certificate with a laboratory result indicating that COVID -19 is not detected. The COVID test must be by the RT-PCR method, within 72 hours before departure. Some airlines do not accept home kit tests so please check specific requirements with the airlines you are traveling with.
  • Printed COVID 19 travel insurance certificate and all pages of the terms and conditions on the COVID-19 coverage and medical benefits. You may be refused to board the flight if you could not show that the insurance meets this requirement.
  • Copy of confirmed ASQ Hotel booking
  • Copy of confirmed flight reservation
  • T8 Health Form
  • You must download the “Thailand Plus” Application on your mobile phone

Wednesday, 20 October 2021

HEAT PUMP

v.gd/qryrtW
Six things you'll only know if you have a heat pump 

As Boris Johnson encourages people to replace their gas boilers, new converts tell us what the low-carbon alternative actually involves 

By Luke Mintz and Yolanthe Fawehinmi 19 October 2021 • 8:37pm 

Richard Casson admits he was a little nervous when a mechanic arrived at his north London flat in May to replace his traditional gas boiler. He wasn’t coming to install a newer model but a heat pump, the low-carbon alternative being hailed by Boris Johnson as the forefront of Britain’s home heating revolution. Casson, who works as a fundraiser for Greenpeace, was obviously motivated by a desire to tackle climate change – but also, if he’s honest, by a simple fascination with new gadgets.

“With everything changing in terms of how we heat and power homes, it didn’t make sense to lock myself into getting a[nother] gas boiler,” says Casson, 38. “I wanted something new and exciting, [that would also] cut my carbon footprint.”

Casson’s heat pump is one of only about 200,000 in use in the UK (in contrast, 25 million homes use a gas boiler). Now, he looks like something of a visionary, as Johnson presses ahead with his net zero plans to end the installation of gas boilers altogether in the next 15 years. The Government this week announced a campaign to encourage homeowners in England and Wales to replace their gas boiler with a heat pump when their current boiler eventually breaks, with grants of £5,000 to help 90,000 households make the switch. But what will it actually involve? Here’s what you need to know...

1. How on earth do they work? 

Heat pumps are usually affixed to an outside wall. Aided by a fan, they extract warmth from the outdoor air. This warm air causes a special refrigerant liquid inside the pump to evaporate, turning it into gas. That gas is then sent through an air compressor, increasing its pressure and making its temperature rise. This hot air is then blown straight into a home, or used to heat water which feeds radiators.

It works rather like a fridge in reverse, says Will Rivers, senior manager at the Carbon Trust consultancy. “A heat pump is taking a very large quantity of low-temperature heat [from outside the house], and then compressing it into a smaller volume of high-temperature heat. It might only be two degrees outside, but there is still energy in that air if you capture enough of it.” Manufacturers claim this process works in temperatures as low as -20C – although the colder it gets, the more energy the pump needs to function. There are also heat pumps that draw energy from the ground or water.

2. Will they cost more to run? 

Richard Brown says his heat pump allows him to save between £300 and £400 a year on fuel costs Credit: Andrew Fox 

Experts say the average heat pump costs between £6,000 and £18,000, depending on the model installed and the size of a property. But this cost can be reduced by government grants. Casson paid £11,000 for a heat pump for his Finsbury Park flat – significantly pricier than gas boilers, which usually cost below £2,500 – some of which he will get back under the Government’s Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive scheme, which pays him about £1,000 a year for seven years. “It goes straight into my bank account.” The exact amount he can claim depends on the amount of fossil fuels his household previously used (the more carbon you are ‘taking out’ of the system by buying a heat pump, the more money you will receive).

Richard Brown, 57, an IT project manager, paid roughly £10,000 last February to replace his gas boiler with a heat pump at his four-bedroom detached house in Derby. He says it allows him to save between £300 and £400 a year on fuel costs.

Ministers claim their newly-announced £5,000 grants will make the cost of a heat pump comparable to that of a new gas boiler, although environmental groups claim the policy is not going far enough.

3. Will my home be colder? 

Heat pumps heat the water in your house to a maximum of about 65C – significantly lower than it would reach under a traditional gas boiler (about 75C for water in radiators, and between 50C to 60C for the water in your kitchen and bathroom taps). This means they generally take longer to heat your home. Sceptics worry that heat pumps will leave them cold during winter, but Brown says he simply left the heat pump switched on “all the time”, rather than trying rapidly to warm everything up when arriving home from work. This allows his home to get just as warm as it would under a gas boiler, while still using much less carbon. “It keeps us perfectly warm,” he says.

Casson, too, says his initial concerns were unfounded. “You hear rumours, but I’ve found those things to be myths. You choose the temperature you want. We set ours at 50C, and it really comfortably gets to 50C. If we put our radiators and hot water on, we just never have any issues.”

The Governmenthas announced a campaign to encourage homeowners in England and Wales to replace their gas boiler with a heat pump when their current boiler breaks Credit: Paul Grover 

4. Just how noisy are they? 

Some worry that the whirring of the heat pump’s fan might prove noisy. But Casson says he cannot hear his fan when inside his flat (the fan is fitted to an exterior wall at the back of his block). “When the engineer switched it on for the first time, he was saying, ‘You won’t be able to hear this’. And I was thinking, ‘God, is he just saying that?’ And he turned it on, and I literally laughed out loud. You read all this stuff about it being noisy, but it’s really not.

Casson thinks heat pumps might “start to make noise over time”. But he says if that happens he can simply “put a bit of WD40 [lubricant] on the fan to sort it out” (his pump receives a free annual check-up as part of his payment deal).

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Brown’s fan was installed on the outer wall of his kitchen. He says he can only hear it while standing in the garden. “It works hardest in winter, when you’re generally not using the garden anyway. Whereas in the summer, it’s off for most of the daytime.” Even on the rare occasions he’s in the garden in winter, the hum of the fan is little more than a “gentle background noise”, Brown says.

5. Are they tricky to use? 

Richard Casson: 'I wanted something new and exciting, [that would also] cut my carbon footprint.' 

Even though he works for Greenpeace, Casson admits the technology behind heat pumps is “quite sophisticated, there are some parts I don’t really understand myself; I’m getting my head around it.” But after some “tinkering” with the settings to make his pump as cost-efficient as possible, he’s now getting the hang of it.

Meanwhile, Tom Jenane, a nutrition and fitness coach, admits he was “incredibly confused” when he moved into his rented flat and discovered his landlord had installed a heat pump instead of a boiler. “It was not previously mentioned by estate agents; they told me that it would save money on my monthly energy bills, so I should be happy about it. They mentioned that it utilises the soil outside in my garden to create the heat, but that’s as far as my knowledge goes in this area.”

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But, Jenane adds: “The idea that I might be lowering my carbon footprint sounds good to me.”

6. Will we all have to have one soon? 

“The Greenshirts of the Boiler Police are not going to kick in your door with their sandal-clad feet and seize, at carrot-point, your trusty old combi,” Johnson wrote in The Sun this week. But setting out his new green agenda today, he announced builders would be banned from fitting conventional gas boilers in new-build homes by 2025 and committed to the “ambition” of ending the sale of gas boilers in the UK from 2035.


Monday, 18 October 2021

NO MORE PATIENCE FOR THE EU

18 October 2021

The EU is a dangerous and wayward power. It has no vision of its future. It has no idea of the balance of power in the world. It treats its enemies, like China and Russia as friends ;  and it treats its friends, the UK and the United States, as enemies. It shows no respect to its peoples, instead it seeks to discipline them (the Greeks, the Poles, the Hungarians.) It serves only German industry and French vanity. It exists as a vortex of power, draining member states of their skilled and competent, becoming ever more self-centred in the process. It has always taken Britain for granted, and always tolerated French selfishness. 

No one asked the British people if they consented to be governed by a European super-state. No one asked the Europeans either, though they don't care.

Yes, we were morally entitled to take back our sovereignty. Yes, we can make a practical success of it. Yes, we have always been and always will be sovereign : we didn't join the euro, we didn't agree to bail out the Greeks, we didn't join Schengen and we vote to leave the EU ... AND WE LEFT.

At present our greatest difficulty is the sabotage being perpetrated by remainers in influential places, who will use every rumour, every innuendo, every insinuation, to destroy confidence in their own country, and delight in every setback they can find, whether or not caused by themselves. 

Friday, 15 October 2021

AN INVESTING STRATEGY (work in progress ...)

14 October 2021

Looking at the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio (CAPE):

Ie average on the FTSE 100 and 250

Average over last 10 years.

 

It is middle of the road territory on both:

FTSE100 at 7,000 is CAPE in 14 to 20 range

FTSE250 at 23,000 is CAPE in 19 to 28 range

So fair value on both - meaning you can expect the average return of 7%, divis reinvested.

 

Now compare with the S&P500:

It's up 1.71% today at 4,438.26.

The CAPE is over 32.

32 is off my scale

32 is way way average.


Best bet is to identify lower P/E, higher divi stocks  If you can find any with a good track record. Put them on a watch list. Decide an allocation and diversification policy. Buy the undervalued and sell the overvalued, according to your position-sizing.

Take account of yield, of growth, and of valuation.

And sell out of these stocks or a covering ETF, if inflation is installing itself on a more permanent basis at 5% and above.


INDICATORS

1. FUNDAMENTAL

2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

3. SENTIMENT

1. FUNDAMENTAL

1a. YIELD

1b. GROWTH

ROCE  Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not so easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. 

Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed.

1c. VALUATION


Monday, 11 October 2021

YAYOI KUSAMA at THE TATE MODERN

15 October 2021



Does this art tell us something about the artist? About ourselves?

It was excellent but upon opening there was a strong mouldy stench of horse piss rhat sucked in the face and you'd think the wine was corked.

But actually, it just needed to be aired for half an hour ("chambrayed" - how do you say that ?). I could have decanted it from bottle to glass to another glass a bit, but I'd probably have spilt it over the first course.

Sunday, 10 October 2021

THE FIGHTING TEMERAIRE

10 October 2021
Three images

BRACE FOR INTEREST RATE RISES

10 October 2021
Petrol - isnt this where fears of inflation started? There's all you need to take your kids to school, we are told, it's in the country somewhere, just not in the right places. So it's only haulage.

Later, we are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global-Britain times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.

But will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for the causes, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems. Of course.

Looking at why the army is being sent in and why temporary visas (as it is only a short-term problem) are being issued (and already extended):

working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!

We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises both 2.5% NI (yes, 2.5%) and local authority tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to recession, debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.

We can imagine low interest rates and high inflation, followed by high interest rates and recession. If high-wage, capital is going to replace labour and put those low-wage often immigrant, workers on the dole, at taxpayer expense.

It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).

Can we see what's happening through this glare of more and more short-term problems? Saunders is interesting

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/09/brace-interest-rate-rises-warns-bank-england-rate-setter/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr. 

Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, adding to supply problems and green is much more expensive. Germany is now back to relying on coal and on Putin!

Then there's the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will a young person rehab the flat they've just bought? What effect on the target of 300,000 housing starts?

The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, showing graphically how everything is connected to everything and everywhere there are knife-edges,resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.

Food prices and staples. Commodities. Is this the start of a new supercycle?

So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term, plus a possible base rate rise early next year, possibly even this year 2021. America same same. Plus if we enter the land of 5% inflation there will be the threat to stock markets, not just imminent tapering.

Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor  substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties that threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).

And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.

Only worries and questions. No real answers. Yet everyone is talking of recession. And the Prince of Norway offers the UK help with food and fuel. That's quite humiliating.

Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no interest rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of management or politicians.

PRODUCTIVITY IN THE UK ECONOMY

10 October 2021

At last week’s Conservative conference, the Prime Minister championed a high-wage, low-immigration economy driven by high productivity, accusing firms of being drunk on cheap labour from abroad. But unless productivity is also there, it will simply lead to higher inflation and require a more stringent response from the BoE.

For all the PM’s urging, growth in productivity, which allows the economy to get more bang for its buck, has been anaemic for a decade or more. The best way, really the only way, to achieve a sustained rise in real wages is through higher productivity growth. But are there any signs of that? So far, no.

In any case, what are the answers to how to raise productivity among the likes of HGV drivers, or baristas in coffee shops? It’s very hard in advance to anticipate the details of how productivity growth can pick up, but we know the general conditions which help :

Productivity growth occurs when the economy grows steadily, business investment is strong, firms are able to plan for the long term, there’s an emphasis on skills, training, a well educated workforce, flexible markets. Once you have those conditions, and firms feel confident that they will continue, you tend to see productivity growth and you’re more likely to see it in different sectors.

Friday, 8 October 2021

"SPILLOVER" - EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AT WORK

8 October 2021
The EU would be fine if it stuck to matters of ISO trade standards. The EEC was OK wasn't it?

It has well overstepped the mark with its claim to sovereignty over nation states. If it could restrain itself to a trade body such as the IEEE that would be fine.

Instead, this creeping federalism, where it bribes trade bodies into accepting its constitution by offering subsidies, offering control through the ECJ, and in return it stuffs their boards with its representatives and imposes its political goals on their charters.

There are 40 such agencies. 

For example, take the case of transport, a cornerstone of European integration. There are three agencies covering transport, of which EASA is one. It was formed from the national aviation authorities. The nationals agreed because air transport concerns Europe as a whole, they were given powers of legal enforcement through the ECJ, and a hefty subsidy. 

But also the EASA now controls them because it sits on the boards of the nationals to ensure they are fulfilling obligations for the free movement of individuals, services and goods... not a national objective.

That's how integration works. National govts are sapped of their powers and cannot achieve their priorities for their own peoples.

That's broadly why the UK left.


Thursday, 7 October 2021

PAULA REGO at THE TATE BRITAIN

7 October 2021 

*Paula Rego at Tate Britain
I have a ticket to see paintings by a Portuguese artist, Paula Rego, at Tate Britain on Friday.

*About

Rego is an artist who is fascinated with storytelling. She is especially interested in stories of women battling with their fears and desires.

She explores adults’ cruelty and children’s wildness and in her paintings, her stories tell of dangerous adventures.

She tries to overturn a world that she believes is shaped by men, for men. In fact, it seems to me that some of her works were for women to see, not men!

Rego is a clever and deep woman and this expo will be difficult for me to comprehend ... which is why I'm going!!

*Jungian

Her work owes much to Jungian therapy. Rego did her own analysis, on her own, as I understand it, a kind of Morning Pages experience. As part of this, she investigated jungian 'archetypal characters*' - stories that mirror and influence human behaviour.

Rego explains: ‘it was very important to go to the origin, the imaginative origin that provides the images of what we have inside us, without us knowing what it is’.

*Surrealist

She also used surrealist techniques that are supposed to wake up our unconscious mind when we view her art. Her paintings can be unnerving ngganggu and seem illogical, putting together strange, magical and distant realities to create beautiful and surprising pictures.

*Your biography

Are archetypes useful when trying to understand or write a biography?.. your own biography? What types are you? What about the major events in your life? Can you recall any special situations you have lived through?

======


*https://btleditorial.com/2016/12/05/common-archetypal-character/

Archetypal event
birth, death, leaving home, initiation, marriage (the union of opposites)....

Archetypal characters
the mother, father, child, god, wise old man/woman, trickster, comedian, fool, shaman, leader, scholar ...

Archetypal motifs
the apocalypse, the deluge, the creation...

Characterisation
thoughts, actions, physical description, reactions, and dialogue

Wednesday, 6 October 2021

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY IN THE NEW ECONOMY

6 October 2021

"Weather the expected downturn and wait for stability to return."

Question about strategy in these times of crises and change and in particular, how to deal with inflation.

We may be entering a very different economic environment. Just had an email from a reader who is a Royal Bank of Scotland pensioner on a company pension. 

He was surprised to learn that their annual increase whilst tied to inflation is capped at 5%. How many other pension schemes will be like that? Any prolonged period of inflation above 5% is a disaster for them.

Quote:
"Money markets are predicting that price rises will run far ahead of the Bank of England's expectations by next spring as Britain is gripped by worker and material shortages. Investors are predicting that the Retail Price Index (RPI) will soar to 7pc in 2022, hitting its highest level since the 1990s. A jump this high would put a huge squeeze on living standards and spark fears of runaway prices with severe economic consequences."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/06/markets-bet-inflation-will-hit-6pc/

Could competition from any new higher-coupon gilts threaten the capital value of dividend stocks?

What should we be thinking about for our portfolio?

EVOLVING ANSWER...

Does look as if we are potentially entering a very different economic environment. Boris talked this morning of a high-skill, high-wage, high-opportunity economy, for carers and entrepreneurs. But no mention of debt, inflation nor interests.

We arguably managed to sail through the global financial crisis of 2009 with little real economic damage by loading up on government debt. Ditto for the pandemic, only on a much larger scale. 400b is a lot for the UK to repay.

But will it repay at today's exchange rate? Or could the plan be to let inflation burn off the debt?

The magic money tree has likely run out, and rates are already effectively up against the zero lower bound. It seems more likely that the government will want to raise taxes and cut spending going forwards, and that's what it's started to do. Can it contain inflation?

Supply chains all over the place are at or beyond breaking point, labour shortages and  unmanageable energy price changes.

But that's not all. Take food prices.

Poor harvests in Brazil, which is one of the world's biggest agricultural exporters, drought in Russia, reduced planting in the US and stockpiling in China have combined with more expensive fertiliser, energy and shipping costs to push prices up. Food producers will all be affected and will therefore all be raising prices in similar ways because it's so widespread that everyone will do it without risking losing customers.

Commodities, a similar story. Again, is it temporary while supply and delivery are re-configured; or is a permanent feature ? Are we entering a new supercycle?

It looks a lot like the aftermath of world war two! Huge amounts of government debt and an economy that had literally been blown to bits.

Of course, the situation isn't anywhere near as bad as it was in the late 1940s, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a very weak UK economy for a couple of decades as people are squeezed between insanely expensive living costs and stagnant wages (as rising wages in the absence of productivity gains only make the case for offshoring and automation stronger, with lowest-paid often immigrant thrown to the dole at taxpayers' expense).

But we need an economist, so until we find one, take these views with a large dose of salt.

In terms of individual stocks, the best insurance against a weak UK economy would be to invest outside the UK, so that's something to keep in mind. The FTSE 100 is a good place to find companies with international earnings. 50% international minimum and  wouldn't want it to go much below that.

If looking for sectors, energy stocks, consumer staples and equity-based real estate investment trusts (REITs) have historically survived inflation best. But history may not be a guide when you have supply-chain disruption and city REITS are down from covid WFH. Utilities are regulated and going bust. Try funds and trusts with a strong brand and clear strategy but as we know over 10 years only a quarter will beat their indexand of course we dont know which quarter.

As for rising bond yields impacting dividend stocks, this seems likely. However, much of that risk can be offset by investing in stocks that are already on low valuations with high yields. The very popular and very highly rated dividend growth stocks would be much harder hit if inflation and rates do go up materially.

So continue the hunt for low PE high div stocks and maybe treat this as a satellite ETF in the core-and-satellite strategy we presented earlier.

Or go for a globally diversified portfolio with a mixture of equities and high-quality bonds bonds providing stability and equities providing the growth to beat inflation. Ramin again

https://youtu.be/jKMZOojV0mE

It may not lend much immediate comfort, but in the long run it could prove to be the wisest choice: lower expectations, aim not to lose against inflation, ie weather the storm for now and wait for stability to return.




BEST INDEX FUNDS FOR GLOBAL STOCKS: AN ETF STRATEGY

Best Index Funds for Global Stocks, Part I

Part I - Strategy
(Part II - Setup
Part III -Operations)

Background
Strategy
Tilts
Modern Portfolio Theory
Strategic allocation rules
“Core and satellite” portfolio design
Screen for compliant ETFs
Summary


Background

Without enough knowledge or time to make a sound call, some investors nonetheless try to pin the tail of a stock they hope will outperform, on the donkey of all stocks in the market. The alternative is to find one fund for exposure to all global equities. Why only one fund? Why global? Companies, sectors and country markets go up and down but we do not have the knowledge or time to understand this and we cannot predict the future. So we diversify as broadly as possible to protect our capital and the good investments will cancel out the bad and hopefully we can benefit from rising markets wherever they occur. 

Passive investing is a strategy for minimising stock dealings with all its risks and costs. It is a cheaper way to hold a bunch of stocks that represent the overall market. It is a way to build wealth gradually but surely. All the information is already in the market, in the form of the price, so there is no benefit in trying to time the market or identify which stocks will outperform. But we believe that over time, in the long run, markets will rise and because we do not know when or where, it is better to be “in” than ”out”.


Rather than trading securities, we buy an index to the target market. An index is like a ruler that measures overall market activity. The index is normally worked out by taking the average price of the basket of securities, as they move up and down each day, but weighting by the market-capitalisation of each company (“market cap.” is number of shares times the share price).

A way was found to buy and sell the index and it is called an Exchange Traded Fund or ETF for short. Today, indexes, in the form of ETFs, can be bought and sold like stocks and shares.

Strategy

Tuesday, 5 October 2021

WORK FROM HOME or LIVING AT WORK

And parents were supposed to work from home and teach their kids. Work, with the kids under their feet all day. Teach, with neither the knowledge nor the pedagogy.

A giant exercise in crowd management. Scare them into lockdown, then busy them to keep them from rioting.

But it worked. Boris got his covid programs through. Just mental illness soared and other diseases flourished.

Terrible times, empty memories. Time hangs when you've nothing to do, but looking back,  getting on for two years gone in a flash.

Monday, 4 October 2021

BENEFITS OF COOPERATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR IRELAND

4 October 2101

Aligning tax regimes North and South on 12.5% is a very pragmatic solution  and would satisfy the US and in any case the South is likely to accept 15% if it remains in the EU.

Pragmatic, except that it would further align the N S economies and distance NI from GB, further opening the road to a united Ireland.

Could Westminster not grasp the nettle, see the writing on the wall, look over the horizon a little? 

I mean, imagine that one day the impossible happens and a referendum in NI puts Unite ahead. The Green flag wins, the Orange flag sees a complete rupture with GB and is desperate, the Get-ahead flag doesn't much care either way. Think GFA...

Wouldn't it have been better to prepare a home of sorts for Ireland in GB, rather than a hurt daughter plight (or plaid) her troth to the EU?