ENGLAND'S PLACE IN THE WORLD

England would have trouble policing its borders against the redheads of Scotland and Ireland, and the stocky dark-haired peoples of Wales, were these countries to break away from the UK.

England is better off when these peoples stay at home.

A post Roman, post Anglo-Saxon Britain is best for everyone.

The United Kigdom's place - meaning Britain and Ireland - in the world is one with easy links to the continent nearby, but basically turned to the world.

The Commonwealth and North America are its natural Allies.

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DOWN AT THE CARE HOME

Georgie (it'll happen to us all).

Georgie was beastly to this new girl, Ifrah let's call her, again this evening, so I had an amiable discussion with him. Ifrah is a pretty Somali Muslim lady (there are some) of 31 with two daughters she's not seen since arriving seven years ago and swears she'll never go back to Mogadishu. She is fully covered and looks a little like a toffee apple, all wrapped up, though today she was in canary yellow with polka dots and looks like a sherbet dab or boiled sweet. 

She's aware that her husband is probably shagging every girl in the village, he might possibly have missed a few. Ifrah sends home money every month - £300 for her mother, sister, two daughters and aunt's daughter.

Georgie is delusional : he was adamant that he's living in some far-off land (Somalia?) and asked me if there were any small-strip airports nearby as he wanted to go home. This isn't his home but some "set", whose purpose is undivinable. Or he wants cash or his cheque book to buy a ticket back home, but where is the nearest station he'd like to know.

He insists Ifrah is responsible for sequestering him in his bed which he describes as a cage. He tells me someone has pushed a bike into the front hedge or placed a milk bottle in front of his bedroom door.

Other than that he is chatty, tired and calm (although not with Ifrah).

I asked him what he thought his collection of 1956 Encyclopedia Britannicas was doing in Somalia. He also showed that he could get up and out of his bed on his own, in spite of Ifrah ; and he can urinate in the lavatory on his own, no bottle, without splashing his dressing gown.

He was up six times last night for his bottle so I made sure he took his special tablet this evening - it's a rather marvellous all-in-one that will lift your spirits, rid you of pesky anxieties and help you sleep like a baby.

One of the carers tells me that all you have that matters to you at the end is a bed and a piss-pot.

We had a couple of glasses of fine red and a great, if wacky, conversation, Georgie and I.

He knows I have to make a trip to Thailand, but that's a long way off, if at all (covid is blowing up over there).

All I can do is just reassure that he is firmly in his own home and has a disparate support team of six (6), complementing him on his innate British talent for managing diversity.

Sometimes I feel I live in a care home myself, a care home with only one resident ....well, soon enough two.

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HOW ARE EARNINGS RELATED TO REVENUES?

HOW ARE EARNINGS RELATED TO REVENUES?

QUESTIONS

Why is it that earnings can grow three times as fast as revenues?

How can the bottom line grow faster than the top?

OBJECTIVES

The aim is to increase the ratio of net earnings to gross revenues. And also increase earnings per share.

Cutting costs and increasing productivity are ways to increase efficiency. The board could also organise to reduce the number of shares through buybacks.

EXAMPLE

Here's an extract from a company's interim report ( https://www.ienergizer.com/about-ienergizer/financial-information/ ):

Operational Highlights : 

   Continued focus on higher margin work and success in business development with existing international customers. 

Business Process Outsource (“BPO”): 

   Service Revenue reduced by 7.6% to $54.9m in H1 2021 (H1 2020: $59.4m), due to reduced business from some clients in India. EBITDA margin grew to 37.3% at $20.8m (H1 2020: 33.5% at $20.3m), as COVID-19 positively impacted iEnergizer’s largest and higher margin generating international verticals, offsetting the negative impact on smaller verticals (low-margin India- based travel and e-commerce work). BPO’s outsized exposure to fast-growing markets of video gaming, BFSI, telecom and healthcare is expected to result in revenue growth going forward after the temporary decline in the first half of the year. 

 

Content Division:

 

   Service Revenue reduced by 5.6% to $33.7m in H1 2021 (H1 2020: $35.7m), as some key clients postponed high value projects to H2 2021, due to COVID-19. EBITDA margins grew to 28.8% at $9.9m (H1 2020: 24.5% at $8.8m) due to cost-savings and productivity enhancements from 90% of employees transitioning to work from home.  

Increase in revenue share from higher margin E-Learning contracts helped to reduce the larger negative revenue impact on traditional publishing segments during global lockdowns in H1 2021.   

Focused on increasing its revenue share from the SaaS product line of “Scipris”, investing in sales to promote this product line.

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IF THEY MAKE IT, IF THEY DONT MAKE IT, IT'S GONNA BE ENTIRELY UP TO THEM

Thinking about Chauvin, Floyd and the two cultures at war with each other.

The culture the Black guys live in is not theirs, they are not where they are by choice and they have not been able to contribute to or become part of the so-called melting pot. 

And it's also true that though they were there from the start, they have watched as wave after wave of immigrants have found a toe-hold and launched themselves ahead of the black man.

No explanation is offered to us other than institutional racism; and no solutions are proposed, though the UK has seemingly done it.

Walking round my local shopping centre, where native English is rarely heard, observing the young happy shoppers, I was thinking: these kids have all got the same chance to succeed and every chance to succeed; if they make it, if they don't make it, it's gonna be entirely up to them.

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REPAIR AND RESTORE, HOW THE VACCINE WORKS

The vaccine is important as it fortifies the immune system. Means the individual can fight off the virus or a least dial down its ravages. 

It doesn't stop there - the vaccine also builds resistance within the community. It means so many people are wearing "No Entry" signs that the virus has no way through. That's "herd immunity" and it protects everyone, vaccinated and non-vaccinated alike ... even refuseniks.

But vaccination isn't enough on its own.

Thailand needs test-trace-isolate-treat. To get ahead of the game. Jump on the slightest case of Corona and rip out the vein of infected.

If everyone plays the game - including mask, hygiene, space - the people will be saved and repair the damage done and the economy can re-open.

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THE MONEY IN FOOTBALL

"Greed" is the explanation for capitalism, so hardly adds understanding to the debate. But let's take a look at debt and the earnings to cover payments.

The net reported debts include overdrafts, bank loans, bonds, shareholder loans and finance leases, less cash. The gross debt of Madrid and Barcelona, at €150 million each, is a lot less than reported in the press. Arsenal is on €310 million and Man United €550 million.

Madrid has €48 million cash and Barcelona €89 million. Arsenal €117 million, though Man United has €370 million.

The UEFA Financial Fair Play (FFP) define debt as a club’s net player transfers balance and net borrowings and does not include trade or other payables. 

Net balances owed on player transfers is €76 million at Madrid, but only €12 million at Arsenal.

Following the UEFA definition, Madrid, Barcelona and Arsenal report a balance of €120-130 million, Man United three times this at €442 million.

Then look at the club's assets. According to UEFA, assets do not cover liabilities in a third of clubs' cases. This is the balance sheet reason for the new league proposal (income statement, we will come to...).

Man United’s net assets (assets less liabilities, or owners' equity) are €973 million (€618 million is inter-company receivables from the parent undertaking), Arsenal €322 million, Madrid €251 million, Barcelona a negative €69 million.

As an alternative to private equity or banks supporting the clubs, could there be a fan-based ownership? Or, could JP Morgan wrap up the support into monetisation units for sale through the world's stock markets?

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ELITE SPORT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FANS

1. What is a club in any case?

Not the building or the clubs or the people who represent it.

Not the TV contracts, the get out clauses, the marketing dept. or the executive boxes.

It's the noise, the passion and the pride in your city. It's the feeling of belonging.

It's a small boy clambering up stadium steps for the first time,  holding his fathers hand and gawping at that hallowed stretch of turf beneath him and without being able to do a thing about it, he falls in love and is absorbed.

Without the fans, football will be passionless. "Will you have fries with that?".

2. What's the new business model?

The clubs compete against each other in a competition where clubs of similar strength  are grouped into "leagues". The intense competition between clubs has led to big debt from player transfers and from a club being taken over when a new owner injects equity. 

But of course what counts is the ability to service this debt from turnstile receipts, paraphernalia sales and TV licensing deals.

What's happened is that Netflix and Amazon have come along with new money for a new super league, backed by JP Morgan on behalf of the banks who want their money back. 

3. Who will win - the new super league or the old leagues?

There is no stronger force in society than the sense of belonging. It is axiomatic to the word "society". However, it can be so diluted by including ever larger numbers of fans that the passion is reduced in each of us to a trickle. That puts the clubs' accountants in charge and money not passion calls the shots. That's business.

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INFLATION, INTEREST RATES AND ASSET PRICES

Cheap money has, of course, been the catalyst for all manner of asset price rises, and the assumption is that this cheap money is here for the foreseeable future. As Professors Marsh, Dimson and Staunton put it in this year’s Credit Suisse Global Returns Yearbook, “the policy dilemma of if, and how, to unwind these crisis measures looms large, particularly with inflation expectations hardening” – no central banker wants to be the one to choke off a recovery by tightening too soon. That means that stretched valuations, whether of shares or property or anything else, are also likely to remain a feature of markets for some time – until the inflation genie finally escapes its bottle.

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HOW TO GET INTO THAILAND

How to get into Thailand:

You need a Certificate of Entry (COE). 

To get a COE:

SUMMARY

1. Apply for a COE online

2. When you’re approved, book your flight, your hotel and buy insurance

3. Now, confirm your application by uploading the bookings to the same website page

4. Then fly and you show all the doc.s at the airport.

DETAIL

1 Apply

Apply here: https://coethailand.mfa.go.th/

• Read the latest Thai gov stuff on this website and press "confirm"

• Confirming will take you to the Registration Procedure

a) First, the registration procedure is explained – tick and hit next

b) Then, fill in the form and upload your passport 

c) Wait three 3 working days for your application to be approved

d) Check the result on the same website where you filled in the form.

2 Book

When you’re approved

e) book a flight

f) book a hotel (Alternative State Quarantine, ASQ) within 15 days

g) buy insurance.

3 Upload 

Confirm your application for Certificate of Entry (COE)

h) Within 15 days of approval, upload proofs of flight, hotel booking and insurance to the same website page

i) Wait three 3 working days for your application to be approved

j) Check the result on the same website where you filled in the form.

4 Fly

k) Print your Certificate of Entry (COE) from same website page

l) Show COE, COVID-19 result and the other three documents to Immigration at the airport

[Correct at 8 April 2021]

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METHODS TO TRANSFER MONEY

To transfer big money from one account to another, within the UK. There's no point in paying for CHAPS as Faster is another digital transfer method that should arrive same day and is free.

Here's a topo on ways worldwide to move money. It looks at CHAPS, FASTER, BACS, SWIFT and SEPA.

CHAPS (Clearing House Automated Payment System) is for big money transfers, above say half a million and house purchases. It costs £20 (twenty pounds) though unscrupulous third parties may attempt a mark-up. The Bank of England clears these payments. Most UK retail banks are in the scheme, some aren't although they can use third-party processing, some (like mine) aren't UK.

FASTER payment is better as they usually arrive on the same day too, but they are free. You can move up to half a million a day with max for a single payment would be £250,000.

BACS (Bankers Automated Clearing Services) is for regular and can be one-off payments, same day not needed. Of two types -
Bacs credit, is a push from your account to the other, so a standing order.
Bacs debit, is a pull, where the other takes variable amounts in a direct debit after you've authorised by filling in a DD Mandate.

SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) is for international. It replaced TELEX back in 1973. It is for bank transfers, forex, securities trading and derivatives. SWIFT is a messaging system between a network of partner banks using standardised formats for IBAN (international bank account numbers) and BIC (bank identifier codes). As SWIFT owns and administers the BIC system, it can identify a bank rapidos and send a secure payment message at the speed of the internet.

SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area) the European Union answer to Euro-only bank transfers. There are 36 members in SEPA: the UK, 27 EU member states and four EFTA (European Free Trade Association) member states and Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

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BEAUTIFUL, NO? THE FUTURE OF AIRBUS IN THE UK

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MONSOON EXPECTED TO BE THE HEAVIEST IN 30 YEARS

 Thailand’s upcoming monsoon season is expected to start early and see the heaviest amount of rainfall in 30 years.

Thailand’s rainy season is caused by the southwest monsoon that sweeps out of the Indian Ocean with moist air heading in a north-easterly direction across the country, sucked into the void left by rising warm air over the summer Asian continent. The monsoon also coincides with Thailand’s location in the Southeast Asian tropical rain belt – the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone.

The timing of the season isn’t the same around the country and isn’t the same every year although it is reasonably reliable. Chiang Mai does not have the same rainy season as the Gulf of Thailand islands. Koh Samui’s wet season is month’s after the islands on the other side of the Malay Peninsula (the Isthmus of Kra).

The annual celebration of Songkran, the Thai New Year – April 13 – is usually timed to match both the end of the hot season and the start of the annual wet season. But in most provinces the start of the monsoon is usually a month or so later.

The strength and intensity of the rains vary greatly. But, generally, monsoon rains tend to be short, intense bursts of rainfall. They could last for a few hours in the middle of the day, but they could just as easily be over within about 15 minutes in the morning or evening.

SOURCE: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30404428

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THAI BAHT PERFORMING BADLY

SEARCH

Thai baht worst performing currency Q1 2021, due to Covid-19’s effect on tourism.

This week the baht hit its lowest point in half a year, falling 4% against the US dollar to 31.24. The decline was the sharpest in all of the Southeast Asian nations. The Indonesian rupiah fell 3.4% and the Malaysian ringgit fell 3.1%, while the Philippine peso and Singapore dollar dropped 1% and the Vietnamese dong basically held steady. Kyats, the Burmese currency did plummet further, 5.6%, following the military coup in Myanmar on February 1, but it’s not considered a common currency.

Thailand’s depreciation is heavily due to the economic downturn as a result of the pandemic which has all but killed Thailand’s tourist-heavy economy. With borders closed, the drop in foreign tourism pumping money into the economy has left a glaring hole. Before Covid-19, in the third quarter of 2019, Thailand held a surplus of US$11.5 billion baht. By the third quarter of 2020, the surplus had fallen to $6.6 billion, and by the end of the year, it had slid to a deficit of $1.4 billion.

Thailand had been bolstered by the surplus and by the constant influx of tourist spending supporting the economy. Tourism money fell to $742 million due to the pandemic border closure, just 5% of the equivalent period last year. The government is hoping to restart the tourism economy and pump more Thai baht into the country with a variety of actions to shorten quarantine, reopen key tourist locations like Phuket, and eventually allow in vaccinated travellers without any quarantine.

Many are still unsure of Thailand’s stability, with investors, importers and exporters still having doubts. The Finance Minister believes there’s no need to panic, as he was expecting a backlash when the Thai baht hit a 7 year high. They have acted by increasing investment limits to US$5 million for Thais to buy foreign securities, up from US$200,000 and loosened restrictions on foreign currency deposits.

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