Tuesday, 28 December 2021

TELL ME ABOUT "THE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE"

What looks good to the customer? Here we will join a prospect on the journey to becoming a loyal customer.

It is about the things you and your customer do together. These are called "touchpoints".

From first contact with a customer, through to final delivery and payment, you meet on specific occasions, called "touchpoints". Touchpoints lie on the consumption process. There are other points where you or the customer must do things - tasks - but they are not touchpoints.

All the touch points, in a line, make "the customer journey" along the consumption process, the "buying journey", from marketing process, to sales, to customer service.

And overall, we talk about "the customer experience", CX, of this journey.

What does "good" feel like for the customer? Because your customer's experience is not just about tasks or a set of actions. It is also about feelings.

How do prospects or your customers feel about your brand?

At every customer touchpoint, you can improve—or destroy—how your customers feel about you.

So there are important decisions to make at each touchpoint, and those decisions have an impact on  your business results.

In all humility, we must recognise that often  one company's products or services are often like another's. So the difference is in the customers' experience of you and your brand.

A good CX might come from attention to matters like:

Does your marketing respond to your prospects' and customers' wants and needs in ways that they can understand and relate to?

Is your website easy to find, navigate through? Is it helping and guiding and assisting the visitor?

Do you have clear objectives, a strong CX strategy, adequate resources, to support the customer on the consumption journey? From this derives the level of customer satisfaction, which is measurable.

Your customer relationship management (CRM) strategy will explain how you intend to marshall resources to deliver an experience that will "delight", meaning that at each touchpoint, the customer will have a valuable, positive and differentiated good time. Front and back office departments will work together to deliver this.

"Good" means the customer walks away from each touchpoint feeling happy and satisfied. Marketing campaigns are well targeted, products and services are clearly explained, buying is easy, no problem to contact someone when needed, a customer's loyalty is rewarded, they feel the interactions have been personally tailored to them.

In the back office, all the data supporting the journey is joined up under the process phases and steps and the company benefits from these interactions to improve the process.

And that is how you create a win-win customer experience.

Monday, 27 December 2021

NOODLES

Noodles: you can buy a packet for twice nothing. It's got noodles, plus two sachets - one is spices and the other is gravy granules.

Noodles are quick, simple, tasty, nutritious, cheap.

1. Boil the noodles five minutes in ample water, tip out of your wok and put to one side.

2. Fry the ingredients in your wok: like protein, any protein such as shrimps or diced chicken or tofu; and veg, any veg in season that you can cut up.

3  Add in the spices (they come in that little sachet with the noodles).

4. Add a few tablespoons of water and tip in the flavouring sachet (eg chicken granules, this sachet is like Bisto and it thickens up the dish as well).

5. After a couple of minutes it's all done and ready to serve.

TIP I add slices of preserved ginger when frying.

Tuesday, 21 December 2021

IS THE EU A MARXIST-LENINIST ORGANISATION?

21 December 2021
Interesting how Lenin, who was chairman of the communist Party, organised the state. 
The economy was 80% rural, 20% urban, 90% of industry was state owned.
All public institutions and some private-sector corporations had a shadow leadership comprised of party officials.
The EU employs a similar strategy. If you look beyond the great institutions we all know - Commission, Council, Parliament, Court of Justice, Court of Auditors - you'll find about 34 EU agencies. 
Each was created by taking over and amalgamating national agencies. These agencies have taken regulatory, operational and policy-related tasks in various sectors -  aviation and space (EASA), banking, chemicals, environment, food safety, pharmaceuticals, policing and many other areas. The "commanding heights" of the economy, to borrow a phrase from Lenin.
The EU offers to give legal certainty to the regulations and to subsidise operations in return for rewriting the charter to serve its political objectives (eg freedom of movement) and the transnational agency accepting political appointees onto its board.
The Communist Party ran the country, there was no opposition, it was a one-party state.
Lenin died in January 1924 after a series of strokes. Stalin took over. 
Collectivisation began in 1928/9 resulting in seven or eight million deaths from starvation and 40 million in constant hunger, in the land of plenty.
The great purges began in 1936. For example, 150 of his 180 military commanders, each responsible for a division of 15-20,000 men, were executed. Stalin signed page after page, thousands of names, for his death squads.
Let's hope the EU doesn't revert to that.

Monday, 20 December 2021

DO COUNTRIES BREAK THEIR TREATIES?

20 December 2021


Ref the WA and NIP.

It is not really fair to say that the UK is breaking a treaty which it had itself only just signed. There are many reasons why countries break treaties, but let's just look at some historical precedents.

The treaty of Versailles was drafted by the UK and signed by Germany without Russia even being present. Both Germany and Russia were flat on their backs. Some say this treaty was far too harsh and provoked the Germans, while others say it was not enforced as it should have been by the British.

Fact is, from 1922 onwards, the uk attempted to undermine the treaty, its own treaty, and re-integrate Germany. This culminated in Chamberlain's brilliant but failed Munich visit. (Remember, we are told that Chamberlain should have made a deal with Russia, but then as he had said to his sister, "how would I then get the Russians out of central Europe?").

All consider the reunification of Germany. Russia agreed to this and to accepting the debts of its former satellites as well as their now being independent sovereign states, if it could keep its seat on the security council. Of course, it hadn't much choice. But when it did, it reintegrated the Crimea, in defiance of I to law, and is working on the rest.

The UK similarly with this withdrawal agreement and the NIP. The UK government t had little choice at the time, but now it does.

Let's not be too innocent of the workings of great power politics.             

WHEN ATTACKED BY A DOG

19 December 2021

If a dog bites your arm/leg, you push into their mouth, rather than trying to pull outwards, and it forces them to open their mouth. I've used that successfully with a 100+kg dog. 

If they are attacking rather than just biting and holding, grab the skin at the back of their head, so they can't shake. Hitting them, gouging their eyes, or otherwise hurting them, is more likely to make them double down and start trying to shake you rather than release you.

Covering their eyes can help make them momentarily release, if you can use a towel or t-shirt to cover their head, that works well. But it'll only give you a brief window of opportunity. 

Saturday, 18 December 2021

THE THAI GOVT WANTS TO END MASS TOURISM

18 December 2021

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2021/12/17/thailand-again-signals-end-of-mass-tourism-thai-examiner/

When change is needed, this can sometimes come if a leadership sees the need to innovate and adapt and maybe it gets inspired; but often it requires a change of leadership. That is the beauty of democracy - the people can overthrow a tired old government, peacefully.

Instead of closing down a successful sector of the economy, mass tourism, as this article from The Thai Examiner suggests, the Thai govt could try first to create a new and promising sector or sectors.

For example, in 1979, Deng Xiaoping visited America to meet Pres. Clinton. He was the People's Republic of China chairman from December 1978 to November 1989. He had seen Japan, S Korea and Taiwan becoming immensely rich and wanted to know more. China was at that time following the Russian USSR ideology.

What he observed was that those three countries were making very high quality goods, at competitive prices, and the huge and wealthy American Middle class was buying them.

In 1980, China was awarded Most Favoured Nation status. A rare and extremely valuable honour.

Under Deng Xiaoping's leadership, China switched from the USSR model to the American, while remaining "Communist". ("Communist", in reality, means a one-party state that controls the economy, mostly through ownership, and the people, through a Ministry of Security, aka the secret police). China started doing the same thing - Deng completely re-oriented the economy from agriculture to production for export.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Now, of course, there is an even bigger and wealthier middle class. And it is not in America.

It's in China.

What does the Chinese middle class want? Well, Thailand could find out and get manufacturing.

Or it could stick with mass tourism. It's up to the PM. 

Monday, 13 December 2021

ALDOUS HUXLEY

Only the film quality tells you this interview took place over 60 years ago.

https://youtu.be/alasBxZsb40

BACKGROUND ON PACO

https://youtu.be/eRG1QpM3PR4

Saturday, 11 December 2021

THE PANDEMIC WILL BE OVER BY VALENTINES

9 December 2021
Omicron looks like it could be a busted flush: yes, transmission is more rapid; yes, immune escape doubles number of infections; but no, it is near harmless, Putin called it "a natural vaccine".
Sajid Javid, 10 December : "Very soon, in the days and weeks that lie ahead, if, as I think is likely, we see many more infections and this variant [omincron] becomes the dominant variant, there will be less need to have any kind of travel restrictions at all."
News from Guatang 9 December: 

This from a doctor in Gauteng, yesterday 9 December

The case for immune escape and quick spread is well made. The important remaining attribute is virulence, deadliness, morbidity, whatever we decide to call it. Is it sufficiently milder to the degree that it makes up for many people getting the disease at the same time? The data we have from a territory already overrun with infections suggests an overwhelming yes.
The data from the Gauteng province in South Africa, a real life case study of 15 million people, is that the degree to which symptoms are less severe more than make up for the immune escape and increased transmissibility that would otherwise have been a concern. And that is in a much less vaccinated population. Hospitals are still performing elective surgeries at full capacity. I can assure you in Covid waves in SA that has not been the norm.
Case growth has now slowed substantially in this province in the span of a week, indicating that cases are about to peak. Goverment modelling is 2nd week of December, the independent Discovery Group modelling was similar.
That would be the first Covid wave since the start of the pandemic, that has peaked without a surge in oxygen use. The CEO of the largest private hospital group Netcare says with few exceptions, most will probably be cared for in primary care in this wave. His observations are consistent with published data, consistent with Mediclinic (2nd largest group), and consistent with the SAMRC study in state hospitals.
I don't think people let it sink in what that means. As per my other comment below, 1 million cases per day, as scary as it sounds, is not a problem if the difference in severity is what has been observed. Even if all the above on symptoms is complete hogwash, the strain is so transmissible that these measures won't make any difference.

1 million per day is not as bad as it sounds if the reduction in severity is as substantial as it appears to be.
The Gauteng province in South Africa has over 10 000 reported cases per day, if we assume 1 in 20 detection rate as Javid does for the UK (optimistic for SA, but argument's sake let's do), then the province has 200,000 cases per day, 5 times less than a million, in a population that is also about 5 times less than the UK.
Hospitals are far from full, the rise there was was mostly due to incidental positives amongst patients admitted for other reasons. Numbers are still lower than the lows of the 2nd/3rd inter wave period.
Elective surgeries are happening, oxygen demand has not surged at all.
The one link below is the largest private hospital group, the second a study by the SA Medical Research Council in state hospitals. They independently observed the same thing:
https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/545230/omicron-symptoms-are-far-milder-says-netcare/
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
Case numbers, now almost 100% Omicron, have gone through the roof in Gauteng, not "early days" anymore.
Sage says even with a modest reduction in severity, hospitals will face pressure due to sheer numbers.
The Gauteng province has those sheer numbers. But yet the hospitals are not facing any pressure whatsoever, in fact it does not look like the midst of a Covid wave.
The reduction in severity is not modest, it is an irrational assumption given the evidence. South Africa is not the UK, true. It is much less vaccinated, and it has not had a wave driven by the Alpha variant, which is also the B.1.1 lineage like Omicron, and prevalence of HIV is high. All of these differences, if anything, favours the UK.

HAS THE EU STOPPED WAR IN EUROPE?

11 December 2021

It's not as simple as political differences that create war. Europe has had nothing but wars- first religious wars and colonial, then liberalism fascist communist, now federalism nationalism, and currently woke gender race sex religion.

It's economic, material, interests and the nature of man (for it is usually men).

The EU are under the illusion that their expensive interfering talking shop defused the drive for military action, but actually it's because democracies don't go to war with each other, NATO keeps the peace and economic integration is so near complete.

The only thing that has surprised me is that the elites lost to Brexit, but that hasn't led to war-war.             

Thursday, 9 December 2021

HOW TO MANAGE A COMPLAINER

9 December 2021

Constant negativity about everything, always wanting to-be more negative than anyone else,

But you know what? She thinks she is the victim of bad things happening in the world - she herself is NOT a negative person!

No point in telling her how lucky she's been in life as she will just tell you more of the bad things that have happened toher, to convince you!!

Maybe find a parable to help her understand?

Better to agree with her. Then when she knows you understand, you can change the subject to something happier. That is the trick.

Someone who complains all the time is someone who finds life full of problems. That is her character and you won't change it. She wants to share, but isn't looking for solutions. She wants you to agree - then she'll feel better.

Of course, sometimes it is a genuine complaint. So then, you can genuinely sympathise and - because it is real - you can very briefly offer a real-world solution.

Wednesday, 1 December 2021

MY LIFE IS MY OWN


30 November 2021
https://youtu.be/hphXPJJMl7g

"I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own." 

THE FRANCE ZEMMOUR SEEKS TO SAVE (RHETORICAL DEVICES)

THE FRANCE ZEMMOUR SEEKS TO SAVE
A STUDY IN RHETORIC
30 November 2021

Zemmour: journalist, polemicist, presidential candidate...His candidacy speech embraces you, oppresses you, haunts you, rallies you. It's a masterpiece in the use of rhetoric.
https://youtu.be/k8IGBDK1BH8
He appears speaking behind a huge mike and in front of ancient books stacked on shelves, reminding us of De Gaulle's wartime calls for resistance (Appeal of June 18 by General de Gaulle).

He begins by telling us his mission, which is to save France from decline "so that our daughters don't have to wear headscarves and our sons don't have to be submissive".
"I understood that no politician would have the courage to save the country from the tragic fate that awaited it. I understood that all these supposedly competent people were mostly helpless [...] That in all parties, they were content with reforms while time is running out. It is no longer time to reform France, but to save it.
I therefore decided to stand for the presidential election."
If you want to know more about how he uses repetition (1), insistence (2), the transfer of allegiance from "you" to "we" (3), mirroring (4), tirades of accumulation (5), assonance (a rhythm of similar sounds) (6) dramatic background music (7):

1. Repetition

Do you remember the country you knew in your childhood? Do you remember the country your parents described to you? Do you remember the country you find in the movies?

2. Accumulation, insistence

our lifestyles, our traditions, our language, our conversations, our controversies on history or fashion, our taste for literature and gastronomy
Joan of Arc, Pasteur, de Gaulle, Molière or even Notre Dame and village churches: all these figures are associated with the word "country". This word is repeated 24 times in two minutes.
The powerful, the elites, the well-meaning, the journalists, the politicians, the academics , the sociologists, the trade unionists, the religious authorities.
The country of Joan of Arc and Louis XIV [..] of knights and gentes dames [..] fables of La Fontaine, characters of Molière and verses of Racine
https://youtu.be/hphXPJJMl7g

3. From "you" to "we" - pushing you to side with him

You walk [..] you look at your screens [...] you take subways [...] you wait for your daughter or your son at the end of school ...
And it's why we must [...], and it's why we must [...], and it's why we must [...], and it's why we must [...], 
A chacun son rôle, à chacun son métier, à chacun son combat
We must give back the power to the people, take it back from minorities that oppress the majority.

4. Mirroring

You have not left your country, but it is as if your country has left you. You are exiles from within.
You were despised [...] but you understood that it was they who were the bait, it was they who had everything wrong, it was they who were harming you

5. Tirade

The French people have been intimidated, paralyzed, indoctrinated, made to feel guilty
For a thousand years, we have been one of the powers that have written the history of the world. We will be worthy of our ancestors. We will not allow ourselves to be dominated, vassalized, conquered, colonized. We will not let ourselves be replaced

6. Assonance, alliteration 

Rééquilibrer...réduire....ramener... redonner
"S" and "P" c'est pourquoi

7. Dramatic music background

Rather ironic this as the music is not from French culture, it is the adagio of the 7th Symphony of the German composer Ludwig van Beethoven, also used in The speech of a king, a British made film.
is.gd/mMZ3Wz

8. Black n white photos

He contrasts a past glorious France, using black and white images of black and white of Jean Gabin, Alain Delon, Brigitte Bardot, Johnny Halliday, Charles Aznavour, Georges Brassens, Barbara; with scenes of violence and social unrest from today.

Thursday, 18 November 2021

THE UKRAINE

18 November 2021

"American and British intelligence officials last week showed Ukraine’s top brass satellite images and electronic intercepts indicating a “high probability” of military attack this winter".

How likely is a military attack, in reality, and what is Russia really looking to achieve? Is Putin leveraging the energy weapon to try to reverse Europe’s green deal or is this really about preparations for an attack on Ukraine?

Russia is a declining super-power, with an aging population, GDP smaller than Italy's and a narrow economic base.

This creates continuing identity, status and security issues at home and abroad. 

So it is neither as secure as other established states, nor as economically dynamic as rising national powers I Europe and further East.

Its region is the former USSR and its status as regional hegemon rests on its permanent membership of the UN, its nuclear arsenal and its laurels as a former empire.

Wednesday, 17 November 2021

TIGHT LABOUR MARKET : WHY SO MANY OVER 50s ARE QUITTING

17 November 2021
The tight labour market is not directly a result of covid, nor Brexit, but due to younger people staying on for more studies and older people przferring early retirement.
Here is the thinking behind one older person's decision to quit work. (Extract is presented with all punctuation as-found.)

===

Cool. Think we should leave Britain to the Woke young now. As a bit of an older worker am thinking of moving abroad anyway to retire, with my equity, inheritance, pension and savings, 15+ years early. 

Personally, speaking, the reason I'd leave the job market (if not currently working for a complete outlier of a company that time seems to have forgot) is:

- The average workplace is full of children. I don't want to be their boss anymore and I certainly don't want to be their peer.

- The average workplace treats people like children. With two further degrees and 20 years experience, Im still not trusted, really, to work a bit later and come in a bit later or just get stuff done in any sort of corp environment....Its not personal, I know, but ,,,, 

- Corporate forced fun which tells me the workers are not even trusted to generate their own motivations for being there.

- Meetings. God-awful meetings. (Listening to crappy marketing ideas created by children that tend to revolve around fridge magnets. That, or rubbish social media stunts with animals). Save me!

- Most workplaces are now Woke. So, the joyful purpose of work to me was to be creative in pursuit of innovations that make the world better for people, even if in modest but meaningful ways; to contribute to markets and progress. If that is compromised with the pursuit of vanity schemes to make self-appointed victims feel momentarily justified in their self-pity, then its not really very rewarding as a purpose.

- Tax. 

Let them work out the mess they've created. They've sucked fun, authenticity and purpose from many workplaces, and employers have been facile enough to let them do it... Good luck folks.


Couldn't put it better! The utter joylessness of the woke, eco-lunatics and the rabid gender politics tripe simply continues to drive the common sense brigade out of the workplace. Let these idiots arrive at the catastrophe they are creating (supported by a 4th rate PM and his so called government) by themselves. Meanwhile, watch the debt free and asset rich 50+ crew hang up the boots early and live their lives free from this left wing bilge.

Tuesday, 16 November 2021

THE CURRENT POLISH PM : GOOD GUY OR BAD GUY?

17 November 2021
The answer might surprise you. (Extract from article recovered 16 Nov)

But he got the economy roaring ahead, stopped the mass emigration (Poland now issues more work visas than any other EU state) started the welfare state, kicked out all Moscow-trained military and diplomats, started rearmament — Abrams and F35s are coming, doubling the army — brought in large tax cuts, shut down the humungous Russian mafia fuel smuggling that Prime Minister Donald Tusk supported ($25 billion for the Kremlin), and has pushed forward major and long overdue infrastructure investments.

Previously, Poland had to put up with obviously fake economic stats, no social security and astonishingly positive media coverage … as two million Poles headed for the door.

Global media coverage of Poland comes mainly from one news stable — Adam Michnik, the brother of a Stalinist hanging judge (Stefan - Google him). So, take every media article with a huge pinch of salt. The editor of the Economist, for example … she helped keep the Commies in power after the fall of Communism!! Zanny Minton-Beddoes. Nothing is as it seems.

Sunday, 14 November 2021

ZEMMOUR ON BREXIT AS APPLIED TO FRANCE

14 November 2021
Frexit is not possible.

Asked about the Macron administration’s apparent desire to “punish” the UK over Brexit and, as his prime minister recently put it, to “show there is more damage to leaving the Union than staying in it”, he was scathing.

“That is the criminal mistake of the French government and European Commission. The British, inventors of modern democracy, left because they could no longer take being tyrannised by Brussels technocrats and European judges.

“Instead of seeking to understand the reasons why, the French government wants to punish them. It’s stupid and shows they have understood nothing of the current period, where similar sentiments are cropping up throughout Europe,” he said.

But he stopped short of calling for France to leave the EU.

“This period is over. France isn’t England,” he said. “We don’t have the same geography and history as you. You won all your wars and that’s not our case. We lost, won and lost and that has given our people a different intuition and sensitivity.

“You have faith in yourselves that we once had but lost. So I think the French people are not mature for this type of adventure.”

https://youtu.be/hIkdW1emHpc

https://youtu.be/uUuBI3f-UEA

Saturday, 13 November 2021

STUDENT LOANS

University students are the very lifeblood of the UK economy. 

This govt under johnson is splashing cash around to many millions of worthless types, like there is no tomorrow, which there may well not be; it is letting thousands more worthless types scramble up UK beaches every week to join their friends in luxury hotel accomodation, at my expense, while awaiting their passports.

And you mean to tell me the govt makes these kids pay for a world-beating education? And pay again in higher tax take? And pay again and again in housing costs inflated by reckless monetary policies, in order for these students to provide a prosperous future for us all and intelligent home-grown talent for generations to come ?

How does education help a country? The level of education is measurable. It is a leading indicator of a country's success relative to other countries. Because an educated workforce opens the door to science, innovation and technology. Technology, in turn, is the bedrock for a competitive economy. So in cause-effect chains, begin by educating your children and your workforce. The effect will be greater productivity through mass-scale application of scientific discovery, which is called technology. This results in a world beating, export-led economy.

I am a believer in a small state with low taxes, but charging individual youngsters for an investment in this country's future is not going to make us great.

Education is a common good. You cannot foresee those, amongst a rising generation, generation Y, will go on to produce world beating ideas, technologies and leadership. If you cannot pick winners at school, you must educate all and not restrict education to, or encourage only, only those who can pay. Student loans squander our future and the futures of our kids. 

Wednesday, 10 November 2021

END THIS EU INTERFERENCE

10 November 2021
Look, you cannot have an outside entity imposing a customs border down the middle of a sovereign state. Neither can you have an outside entity assuming the powers of a supreme Court over a sovereign state.

It was agreed to to avoid a hard border between UK and EU and a potential return of "the troubles" (those in the South of the island objecting to those in the North remaining attached to Britain).

Agreed to, but only if checks were kept reasonable.

It was a desperate situation the UK found itself in and the EU have exacerbated this to the max for purely political purposes: they want to show other members of their alliance that quitting carries a greater cost than staying. They are sad and jealous and fearful of an independent UK.

Cause of war.  It is not just absurd to have the EU interfere in the UK's affairs of state (it is not just customs, it goes as far as competition and state subsidy policies), but totally intolerable to have the EU twist the knife in this deep wound.

Solution.  Put the border where it belongs and administer controls through advanced notice of border crossings, electronic surveillance at the time of crossing, flying customs checks that can take place on any kerbside (see Andorra-France for model).

Plus, an independent dispute resolution panel to which the EU (ECJ) is welcome to argue its case.

This is nothing more than common sense and mutual respect.

The alternative of the EU building control towers inside its border is too horrible to contemplate, even though walls seem to be going up everywhere. The EU playing a Belarus at the NI frontier is another potential horror that I wouldn't put past them frankly.

At the moment, it seems like the extremists are in charge.

Monday, 8 November 2021

BREXIT TRADE WARS

The key point is the threat of war. Not real war of course, but a trade war. So what would this look like?

The EU has previous as it triggered article 16 over its sense in January that the UK was smuggling vaccine supplies out of its AZ factories in  Belgium. What shocked many of us was that the measures in the Brexit protocol designed to protect peace in Northern Ireland were here being repurposed in a completely different theatre of war.

If (when) the UK uses art. 16, it is very likely the EU will announce plans to suspend the trade agreement altogether. Under the rules, the EU’s response must be proportionate.

It could, for example, target Scotland by inposing tariffs on  Scottish salmon and Scotch whisky just to further wind up Holyrood-Westminster relations. In the dispute with the US over steel and other products, the EU imposed a 56% tariff on Harley-Davidson bikes and levies on bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, targetting Trump-supporting states.

The fishing row has focused minds on the impact on consumers when France threatened to check every lorry coming from Britain into European ports. We were even regaled with absurd stories of EU officials confiscating ham sandwiches and refusing forms sincerely filled inwith the wrong coloured ink.

If France, Ireland and the Benelux countries really do stop every lorry, supply chains before Christmas would be severely stretched. This would indeed be a declaration of war on the people of the UK. That would be a bridge too far.  

Thursday, 4 November 2021

NEW TAPERING

120 billion dollars a month on asset purchases. Hard to get your head round that and how artificial the market has become. Maybe it's just Keynsian!


It seems weird, but these govts think that debt is absolutely no problem, they will never default, and the markets know this, because they can print the repayments.

They also think that what they print is owed to them (!), it is a call they have on us through taxation, that we have no choice but to pay.

The only limit to printing is, these govts think, from inflation, as demand starts to outstrip supply (of goods, capital, labour).

So as reality (inflation) is now undermining their principles, will they change their theory? No no no, just deny that there is any inflation.

We hope they're right, and inflation really is temporary while demand/supply gets back into balance.

But as a warning, from what I read, equities will generally suffer if inflation gets to 5%.

Aaaah, I hear you say, is that: RPI, CPI or CPIH? And how are they fiddled.

So what will get us? Debt? Covid? Climate change? Net zero? The Chinese?

MORE ABOUT "THE NEW NORMAL"

4 November 2021
"what a complete pile of delusional nonsense ..  what does this so called "NEW NORMAL" actually mean?"

Please add a little water to whatever you are drinking!

"New normal" means the changes in how we live due to the virus, that look like becoming permanent. 
For example, most people in public enclosed spaces will continue to wear a mask. Another example: we replumbed the Internet so people could work from home (WFH) and where that's been an improvement (less journey time, less costly office space, for an improved productivity), it's likely to stay.  Some jokingly call it "living at work".

For the travel and tourism business, looks like passengers will expect temperature-checking, infection testing, more safety and hygiene at airports, on flights, no meals, controls on how you can use spacewhat, 
a more eco-conscious mindset, no more 9 to 5, more tech supporting change (as always) eg online application for e-visas.
Not all changes will stick because the success of vaccine programs will mean we can return to the old normal, how things used to be. E.g. planes won't be flying half empty anymore.

And there are other motors for change going on at the same time - climate-change & net-zero, Wokism - that mix in with changes in our behaviour introduced by covid - eg people will holiday nearer home, more interference from governments in citizens' freedoms, higher taxes to pay for the fight against the virus.

Change is constant, but covid, climate change and the woke are fast changing how we do things...and these changes look like being here to stay. These new ways of daily living are called "The New Normal".

The TAT is trying to understand these changes so as to adapt Thai tourism. 

One big big change is to recognise that visitor numbers are likely to be permanently down. If tourism's contribution to GDP is to return to the old normal, each tourist must spend more (that'sthe Thai way of thinking). Hence a move from mass tourism to millionaire tourism.

Will plans for millionaire tourism work out? Or are they, as you suggest,  "delusional"? That's a good question!

Wednesday, 3 November 2021

COMMANDO LESSONS WE CAN ALL USE

3 November 2021

Commando training lessons we can all use

  1. To ensure long-term success, you need to be able to adapt and change quickly. It’s the best way to be sure of sustained personal growth.
  2. There are two kinds of motivation – intrinsic (when you understand that a task, such as exercise, is doing you good) and extrinsic (when you gain a reward such as money for work). The key is to create a crossover, when a task performed for money or a favour becomes an enjoyable discipline that you can appreciate is doing you good.
  3. Never lose sight of the end goal and load it with value, writing down the positives and repeatedly visualising life after your goal has been achieved. This will steady the ship when temporary disillusionment creeps in.
  4. It is what you do in the shadows that makes you unstoppable when the spotlight is on; master the mundane and the easy, enjoyable aspects of life become effortless.
  5. In new environments or situations of restricted living means, it is essential to “take charge of what you can control’ and ‘establish new routines”. Don’t succumb to new surroundings, own them.

CARE IN THE HOME OR CARE IN A HOME?

3 November 2021

In weighing up the two options, as well as the wishes of the elderly person, consider the standard of care on offer, the stress on the family and the costs.

A few points worth making.

The standards in care homes are high these days, thanks to the CQC. And the owners of care homes are not ripping off their guests, though they are in business.

Care at home can easily come to be twice as expensive as care in a home - £8k a month v. £4k in a typical home.

When the older person bought their home, they probably did so on a mortgage of three times salary. Today that's seven. The home is a family asset and a family fortune should not be squandered as it will be needed by the grandchildren to start their own families.

Trying to care for someone at home, when you have no experience and busy lives, can really tear a family apart.

Best to choose a friendly home nearby where you can visit and enjoy each other's company, as far as possible. The standards of care will be consistently higher. And the costs will be lower.

The older person will adapt more easily if done gently and in good time. And they should be happier in a well-run and social environment.

Let your decision come from a fair evaluation of the options rather than emotions such as (quite possibly misplaced) guilt. Remember that the future belongs to those who remain. The interests, wants and needs of all involved count. 

Tuesday, 2 November 2021

TEN RULES FOR EVERY TRADER



10 Rules For Every Trader

These are rules handed down, honed and handed on.
Trading. So, not investing, not gambling either.


1. Price doesn't HAVE to do ANYTHING.
A common misconception among very new traders is that skilled traders are able to 'predict' the market. This is not true. This is not even possible. As a trader, your job is to deal in probabilities and risk-management

2. Ranges are more common than breakouts.
In any given market, for every successful breakout and acceptance of new price, you will find 3-5 failed breakouts. New traders often prefer breakout trades because they happen fast, they're exciting, and there's a certain thrill to profiting off of a sudden move that you know caught a lot of other traders with their pants down. Remember that price action stays rangebound by default, until a demand imbalance pushes the auction process to a new range. Range bound trading is a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make.

3. You will be wrong at least 50% of the time. Keep your risk tight!
So, it's not necessarily true that you'll be wrong more than you are right, however as a new trader it's highly probable. This is however the mindset that I adopt when I am evaluating the risk of a potential trade. With any trade I take, I assume that I've got a greater chance of being wrong than being right. When you think about your trading this way, I guarantee that you'll tighten up your risk management game.

4. Check your ego at the door.
You're here to make money. That's all. The market is not here to offer you self-validation. The market doesn't care about your need to prove anything. Stay humble, and always keep the possibility of being wrong in the forefront of your mind

5. Take what is offered.
This goes hand in hand with rule one and rule four. A common saying is 'follow the signals, not the cents'. I've let winners turn into losers in the past because I FELT (rule 4) like price action HAD (rule 1) to go farther before rolling over. Take what the market offers, and see the next rule.

6. There will ALWAYS be another opportunity.
FOMO (fear of missing out) is very real. It will also lead you to get cut to pieces in a leveraged market. If you missed your ideal entry, don't chase. You didn't just miss the last and only good trade in the world. Think of your risk capital like ammunition. Save it for tomorrow

7. Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers.
What more can I say? If you're adding to a losing position with the intent to move your average entry price, you're already in trouble. Every time you think about adding to a position, I want you to hear this rule in your head. "Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers." Close that losing trade. Save your capital for the next opportunity.

8. Be greedy with your entries: fight for price.
If your trading thesis requires price to reach a certain level to validate your entry criteria, then wait for that level. Remember, don't FOMO into a trade. See rule six.

9. Be patient with your entries: Being early is the same as being wrong.
Similar to rule 8, no FOMO! Have you ever taken a trade and then been stopped out before the market makes the move you were expecting? You're trying to predict the market instead of reacting to what it is showing you. Slow down, and remember that acceptance of price is validated by both time and volume .
10. Hope is NOT a strategy!
This is the difference between trading and gambling. Good trading looks very boring. As a general rule of thumb, if it's exciting, you're probably gambling and not trading. If you don't have a solid 'if this, then that' thesis about the market you're looking to trade, then you don't have a trade to make


Saturday, 30 October 2021

BIG BROTHER BORIS

Fortunately alternatives to big brother Boris are coming through

Farage was rather an Arthur Daly type figure, or a silky-tongued used car salesman.

Farage, now I think about it, was always kicking the tyres of govt and finding fault. He was pretty much always right, but he didn't have a coherent alternative.

There are serious politicians in that they have a vision. Trice  Burnham (Labour). Reform. 

The Tory party was founded on the idea that now we are giving the vote to the working classes, so we must buy them out, in order that we can get on with private enterprise. That's the vision and the values: they're private sector, small state, freedom, low taxes, survival of the fittest.

Those ideas are exactly the opposite of Boris'. Boris' mission, what he's doing, he wants to take over everywhere and spend everything on a perpetual party. He's totally got the wrong end of the stick  He is a ruinous person. Power has gone to his head and transformed the clown into a megalomaniac.

Pretty soon we'll see tall buildings draped with his image.

Friday, 29 October 2021

0 STRATEGIC DEFINITION

29 October 2021

stage 0

1 Strategic Definition 
1.1 Purpose

By the end of this stage 0, you will have identified and made the business case V1 for purchasing a property and established the objectives and risks for rehabing works. Begin writing down your MVV and budget and configuring the Property Selector tool ready to log the start-up data for a list of candidate properties.
The Strategic Definition stage 0 is about finding the property opportunity, identifying high-level rehab requirements, the resources required to achieve the project objectives, the project risks and the project costs and timescale. These are V1 estimates that you will return to in further iterations in subsequent stages.
It needs strategic thinking ie forming a long-term vision and mapping whatever resources you can get hold of to take you from the as-is property as it is when you buy it, to the to-be rehab ready for handover and use. ‘Use’ may be sale, rental or owner-occupation.
1.2 Steps
Here are the steps in this phase.

1. The starting point is an understanding of your Mission Vision Values. 

‘Mission’ is what you can do (property: buy, improve, use)
‘Vision’ is where you want to be (own architecture practise / regular property upgrades).
‘Values’ are your ethical guides or the standards that govern your motivation, thinking and actions. Values come from how you were brought up and what have learnt in life.

2. You need an idea of what you are looking for, your Search criteria. These will be about the property and its environs, your spend envelope and the value you expect to achieve. 

3. A quick Condition survey or rough schedule of dilapidations will let you estimate the cost of the works and will start the property rehab Requirements definition for the chosen property. These V1 requirements will later feed into detailed drawings and spec.s and quantity surveying, before being ready for putting out to tender.

4. How long do you expect the project to last? This will support the initial Project Plan. And how much do you have to spend? This is your Budget. 

The condition survey, will get broken out by phase and trade and will help with eg establishing your maximum auction bid, the borrowing you might need and for how long, affordable procurement, staged payments you make to contractors as the work proceeds…

5. You need to appreciate what you personally can do, as a function of your skills & competencies and your availability; and what competencies you will need to call in. 
What sort of abilities does stage 0 require? Stage 0 requires strategic thinking, some management consulting expertise (how organisations and project work), whole life-cycle analysis (purchase, rehab, maintenance, disposal), sustainability guidance (“meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”: energy source, flexibility and durability, waste management, water management, material selection and pollution), whole life-cycle analysis, sustainability guidance, financial modelling, design thinking
You will be making the property function your way (electrics, plumbing, roof and external walls…), but there are also non-functional requirements such as health and safety and many planning and building regulations (constraints) to adhere to. 
You will assemble a Project Team, including perhaps a named resource at the local authority (planning, building reg.s). The roles and responsibilities vary through the phases and one person may wear several hats. Be clear by naming these positions, creating a profile, identifying who makes the decisions, how they can be changed (change control), who does the actions, and in what format instructions will be issued.
You will need a Communication Plan and a meeting room, likely digital, to exchange and store information.

6. You will benefit at all times from Feedback from your studies (skills) and experience (competencies), and from competent people whom you can freely consult with on other projects (experts, maybe from work).

7. There should be a go/no-go Milestone Review. A thumbs-up and you can move to the next stage - a building project has been set up and different skills will then be needed.

1.3 Deliverables

• Requirements – used for project execution: quality, change control
• Light Business Case – used for managing the project: cost, timescale.

1.4 Supporting Tools

• Property Selector
• Templates




Thursday, 28 October 2021

THE 2021 AUTUMN BUDGET

Rishi is totally brilliant, but he is not serious; and that's the trouble with this govt, led by Bojo. 

They don't have any skin in the game as they are fabulously rich themselves already. They just want to stay in office and the best way to do that is to play the Master of Ceremonies at a party.

Rishi should have been wearing a party hat and carrying a magic wand. 

When the people turn to hard work, thrift and moral decency, so will the govt. But the people are in party mood after the pandemic.

I reckon it's more than that, not temporary at all. There seems to be a structural change in the culture. 

There are no true-grit politicians negotiating what's best, taking people to places maybe they dont want to go but it's best for them,  showing leadership. 

And as to the commons, the people are dominated by a load of third-worlders these days, making hay. The govt plays to this fecklessness. It isn't serious.

We don't have real politicians anymore, only DJs, Masters of Ceremonies. Where was Rishi's party hat and magic wand? Open the box Rishi.

Monday, 25 October 2021

SECRETS OF GIVING ADVICE

Secrets of giving advice

Can you remember times when you tookgood advice ... and didnt?

So, starts, as usual by listening.

Asking open questions
Asking questions that also allow the respondent to see a benefit for themselves

Waiting for them to ask you for advice.

Telling of other people or yourself, not give instructions!

Don't care about if it is followed or not.
Dont mind if they do something different!!!

Compare:
Coaching
Consulting


Sunday, 24 October 2021

NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL

"The way forward is for the UK and EU to cooperate in measures to curb the flow of non compliant goods in either direction across the Irish land border, while leaving each side free to make and follow its own laws and rules within its own territory."

That says nothing.

The answer is a digital border, where it should be, and the technology is here ready to deploy.

 The EU is The Single Market, which is the so-called "four freedoms", broken out into a cascade of deeply trivial rules (300 in the case of the NIP), policed by the EU's own court. 

That's fine for members, but not at all fine for non-members. 

 Any disputes can go to independent arbitration. That is not controversial.

 This whole dispute can be sorted out using a digital border and independent dispute resolution.

 Why hasn't this been done? 

THE CASE FOR THE NATION STATE

From Poland's perspective, the case against an EU federal Europe is the case for the primacy of the nation state.

But from the EU point of view, this is an existential threat. It is quite unlike Gernany's objection from its constitutional court.

 

The EU is built on the Single Market. From these so-called "four freedoms" flow all the rules that so annoy lovers of freedom for their own parliaments. These rules are judged and enforced by their top court, the ECJ.

 Without the ECJ, member states would be free to do as they please, choosing cake when it comes to subsidies, for example, or sandwiches when it's a matter of economic policy for their own country.

 So Poland's challenge to à federal Europe is taken very seriously. The response from the Commission and EU Parliament isn't yet decided: go in hard with, in effect, sanctions and fines; or be more accommodating by finding out precisely what the current govt in Poland wants to do and perhaps relaxing those rules in a more flexible approach.

VALUES

I'd say one more thing. This conflict is not simply Poland asserting itself as a nation state and challenging the loss of sovereignty implied by a union of states into a federation. This is about very different sets of values.

Let us not forget that it was only 30 years ago that Poland escaped Vassal status in one empire. No surprise that it wouldn't want to join another.

 With Hungary and the Czech republic, these peoples are not interested in LGBTetc rights or the EU an for "gender equality", they do not believe that abortion is a good thing and as to identity politics, it’s not transphobic for Poland to want to recognise only men and women and uphold their traditional, more conservative values and way of life.

 Let's get real a little. The EU intends a law to “protect the rights of rainbow families so that their parenthood and same-sex partnership is recognised throughout the union.”

How will that down with the vast majority of the people of Poland? And if the Polish govt refuses to obey, it will be in conflict with the EU and will get taken before the ECJ.  

Saturday, 23 October 2021

OUR INHERITANCE


23 October 2021
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/23/parents-occasionally-abrupt-children-may-guilty-mild-neglect/

Who says you can't take it with you?
 
The costs of care in the home can reach £2,000 a week, or as much as twice the bill for care in a private care home. So it is quite possible for a parent to burn through the family fortune, leaving the family or beneficiaries with nothing. Nothing?

In those final years and months,  much and increasing stress in the family can be expected, dementia setting in, personalities crystallise out on the dark side, clashes are inevitable, so that the defunct's only legacy could be a family split asunder.

The future belongs to those who remain. But here, the only inheritance will be a family where each goes their own way.

Who says you can't take it with you?
 
The costs of care in the home can reach £2,000 a week, or as much as twice the bill for care in a private care home. So it is quite possible for a parent to burn through the family fortune, leaving the family or beneficiaries with nothing.

Could carers at home provide the same standards as procedures on tap in a care home?

Whilst many families and the elderly themselves wish to be near their loved ones, in familiar surroundings, many will not and many will prefer the social opportunities available in a care home and would welcome their family in relaxed circumstances.
Because along the way in those final years and months,  much and increasing stress in the family can be expected, personalities seen to crystallise out on the dark side, clashes will be inevitable, so that the defunct's only legacy could be a family split asunder.
This will be their inheritance.