WHY AND HOW TO UNITISE YOUR PORTFOLIO

31 December 2025

If you pop an extra 500 into your portfolio, does it mean that your performance has improved?

You've built your own portfolio - how can you compare its performance with that of an index such as the FTSE All Share ^FTAS or the S&P 500 SPY or indeed any Active or Passive funds?

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1. Overview

Unitising a portfolio is a simple accounting method that allows an investor to measure performance accurately over time, regardless of cash added or withdrawn. It treats your portfolio like a fund, where performance is tracked through changes in a unit price rather than changes in total value.

This approach is widely used by professional fund managers but rarely by private investors, despite being straightforward to implement.

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2. The Problem Unitisation Solves

Most private investors measure performance by looking at how much their portfolio is worth today compared with the past. This is misleading when money is added or removed over time.

Regular contributions, lump sums, or withdrawals distort returns. A portfolio can appear to perform well simply because more cash was added, not because the investments performed well.

Unitisation removes this distortion.

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3. What Unitisation Means

Unitisation means seeing your portfolio as a number of units, where a unit has a value measured in your currency) that depends on performance... not on how much you may and add or withdraw. it is still or expired  with the value of each unit being the total value of the portfolio divided by the number of units notional units, each with a changing price.

You are not changing what you own.
You are changing how you measure it.

Performance is measured by the movement in unit price, not by the size of the portfolio.

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4. How To Unitise A Portfolio

Step one. Choose a starting unit price.
This can be £1, £10, or £100. The number is arbitrary.

Step two. Calculate the number of units.
Divide the total value of your portfolio by the chosen unit price.

Example.
A £50,000 portfolio with a £100 unit price equals 500 units.

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5. Tracking Performance Over Time

As markets move, the value of your portfolio changes but the number of units stays the same.

If the portfolio rises from £50,000 to £60,000, the unit price rises from £100 to £120.

Your return is the change in unit price.
In this case, 20 percent.

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6. Adding Or Withdrawing Money

When you add money, you buy new units at the current unit price.

Example.
If the unit price is £120 and you add £6,000, you buy 50 new units.

When you withdraw money, you sell units at the current unit price.

This ensures that cashflows do not affect performance measurement.

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7. What Unitisation Gives You

Unitisation produces a time-weighted return.

This allows:

• Accurate long-term performance tracking
• Fair comparison with funds and benchmarks
• Clear separation of investment skill from saving behaviour.

It shows how well your investments performed, not how much money you happened to add or withdraw.

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8. Unitisation Versus Other Measures

Unitised returns are 'time-weighted'.

By contrast, measures such as XIRR are money-weighted and reflect the timing of cashflows. Both have value, but they answer different questions.

Unitisation answers one question only.
“How well did my portfolio perform?”

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9. Why Most Private Investors Do Not Use It

The main reason is not complexity.
It is simply that they are not familiar with it.

Most platforms do not present data this way, and investors are rarely taught to think like fund managers. Yet the method is simple, transparent, and robust.

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10. Conclusion

Unitising your portfolio turns performance measurement from guesswork into a clean, professional process. It strips out noise, removes cashflow distortion, and lets you judge your investing decisions on their merits.

Once adopted, it becomes very hard to go back.... for sure.

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Glossary

Unitisation

Treating a portfolio like a fund by dividing it into units whose price reflects performance.

Time-weighted return

A measure of investment performance that shows how well the investments themselves performed, ignoring when or how much money was added or withdrawn. It is the standard method used by fund managers because it removes the effect of personal saving decisions and focuses purely on investment skill.

Further reading:

https://monevator.com/time-weighted-return/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/time-weightedror.asp

Money-weighted return

A measure of return that takes account of the timing and size of cashflows, such as contributions and withdrawals. It reflects the investor’s personal experience, meaning good or bad timing can materially change the result even if the underlying investments performed the same.

Further reading:

https://monevator.com/money-weighted-return/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/money-weighted-return.asp

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Now then now then...

You drop 500 into your portfolio does this change the value of your portfolio does this change the number of units in your?

You receive a dividend does this increase the number of units or the value of a unit?

How will you track and compare your performance with the index of your choice?

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Source

To read attentively! :

Monevator - a great site for investors of all ages and skills.

How to Unitize Your Portfolio
https://monevator.com/how-to-unitize-your-portfolio/

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A Worked Excel example

That's article above includes a Excel spreadsheet to download and adapt. Here's a ready-to-paste example. Ready to drop straight into Excel or Sheets.

Worked Excel Example – Unitised Portfolio

Date | Portfolio Value | Cashflow | Units Outstanding | Unit Price

01-Jan | 50000 | 0 | 500 | 100.00

01-Feb | 55000 | 0 | 500 | =B2/D2

01-Mar | 65000 | 10000 | =D2+(C3/E2) | =B3/D3

01-Apr | 70000 | 0 | 590.91 | =B4/D4

01-May | 65000 | -5000 | =D4-(ABS(C5)/E4) | =B5/D5

Key Excel Formulas (Copy Once)

Unit price:

=B2/D2

Units added (cash in):

=C3/E2

Units removed (cash out):

=ABS(C5)/E4

Interpretation

Performance is the change in Unit Price only.

Cashflows do not affect performance.

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RUSSIA EL DORADO DILEMMA

28 December 2025

It makes sense - that if you can't steal Russian assets, then make deals. 

Russia looks like El Dorado on paper - vast land, huge resources, serious technical capacity.

But profit only works where contracts, courts, and ownership are trusted... In Russia, capital is conditional on politics, and since 2022 that risk has become explicit through forced exits, asset seizures, and sanctions. Western sanctions and payment restrictions make normal business simply impossible. 

Russia doesn't lack wealth, but wealth without rule of law isn’t if you like, bankable.

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1. Russia As “El Dorado” For American Business

Russia looks like a dream market on a map.

• It covers about one sixth of the world’s land surface
• It is rich in energy, minerals, and food.
• Much of this natural endowment remains under exploited
• Important technical skills base
• On paper, this looks like frontier capitalism at scale.

The instinct is understandable.... but so would be the disappointment.

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2. The Resource Case Is Real

Russia’s material base is not a myth.

• Energy. One of the world’s largest producers of oil and natural gas.
• Agriculture. A leading global exporter of wheat and other cereals.
• Minerals. Significant reserves of nickel, palladium, platinum, aluminium, and fertiliser inputs.

These are not optional goods.
They are the physical inputs to industry and an advanced economy and civilisation.

This is why Russia repeatedly reappears in strategic calculations, even after political rupture.

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3. Human Capital And Technical Capability

Russia is not technologically primitive.

• It sustains nuclear, aerospace, defence, and advanced engineering sectors.
• It has deep scientific and mathematical traditions.
• It produces skilled engineers and software developers.

However, technical capability is not the same as investability.

Markets do not run on talent alone, they need rules - law and its enforcement.

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4. The Legal Environment Is The Core Obstacle

This is where the opportunity breaks down alas.

• Predictable courts matter more than cheap skilled labour
• Enforceable contracts matter more than raw materials
• Property rights matter more than projected returns.

On the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2025, Russia ranks near the bottom globally.

This is not a moral judgement, it is rather a pricing signal.

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5. Expropriation Is Not A Theoretical Risk

Since 2022, foreign firms have learned this the hard way, As we covered in an earlier post.

• Forced exits
• Compelled asset sales at steep discounts
• Transfers to state linked entities
• Restrictions on dividend payments and capital repatriation.

High profile cases, including disputes involving ExxonMobil, have reinforced a simple lesson.

If ownership is conditional on politics, capital demands a massive risk premium, or it simply walks away.

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6. Sanctions Change The Entire Equation

Even if governance improved tomorrow, sanctions dominate the near term reality.

• Finance is restricted
• Payments systems are constrained
• Insurance and shipping are limited
• Technology transfer is tightly controlled.

US Russia trade has collapsed to a fraction of pre 2022 levels.

This is not normal friction, it is a structural separation.

The rules are administered primarily through bodies such as Office of Foreign Assets Control, and mirrored by EU measures extended by the Council of the European Union.

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7. The “Gateway To China” Argument

In theory, Russia could serve as:

• A resource base
• A low cost energy platform
• A Eurasian manufacturing corridor.

In practice, this logic breaks down.

• China already accesses Russian resources directly, and on strong terms
• US firms operating in Russia would still face sanctions and export controls
• Output aimed at Western markets would be politically fragile.

Geography alone does not overcome geopolitics.

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8. Why Business Did Not Replace War

There is a long held belief that trade prevents conflict.

That belief has limits.

• Commerce works when rules are shared and trusted
• It fails when power and security override profit
• States routinely accept economic loss to pursue strategic goals.

When that happens, companies become instruments, or collateral.

This is not an anomaly, it is history repeating.

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9. What Would Have To Change

A genuine reset would require:

• A durable political settlement accepted by major sanctioning blocs
• A staged and credible sanctions unwind
• Clear restoration of legal protections for foreign capital
• Evidence, over years, not months, that contracts survive political stress.

Until then, boardrooms will treat Russia as rich, capable, and ... unbankable.

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10. Final Judgement

Our framing here is correct.

• Russia is materially wealthy
• It has serious industrial and technical capacity
• It could, under different conditions, be enormously profitable.

But profitability is not enough.

Without trusted law and stable politics, opportunity becomes a trap.

You could say that El Dorado always looks brightest just before the jungle closes in.

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11. Glossary Of Terms

• El Dorado

  • A mythical city of gold. Used to describe an opportunity that appears limitless, but proves dangerous or illusory.

• Rule of law

  • The principle that laws are applied predictably, including to the state, and that courts reliably enforce contracts and property rights.

• Expropriation

  • The seizure or forced transfer of assets, sometimes through legal or administrative means, often with limited compensation.

• Sanctions

  • State imposed restrictions on trade, finance, technology, and payments designed to coerce political outcomes.

• Political risk premium

  • The additional return investors demand to compensate for uncertainty arising from governance, conflict, or policy instability.

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12. References

• World Justice Project, Rule of Law Index 2025.
• FAO, global grain and wheat export data.
• US Census Bureau, US Russia trade statistics.
• OFAC, Ukraine Russia sanctions programme guidance.
• Council of the European Union, sanctions extensions.
• Financial Times and Reuters reporting on foreign corporate exits and asset disputes.

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Read More

KING MENGRAI OF LANNA

23 December 2025

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King Mengrai And The Birth Of Lanna

https://qr1.me-qr.com/music/lbHXSZ84

Lanna culture survives as a regional consciousness, expressed through food, festivals, rituals, and a strong sense of historical continuity.

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1. King Mengrai

King Mengrai (1238–1317) was the founder of the Lanna Kingdom and one of the most consequential figures in northern Thai history.

He was not just a warrior king, but a state-builder. Through a combination of conquest, diplomacy, and alliance-making, he united several Tai city-states into a coherent northern kingdom that would shape the region for centuries.

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2. The Founding Of Chiang Rai

In 1262, King Mengrai founded Chiang Rai, which became his first capital.

The location was chosen for strategic reasons: proximity to trade routes, fertile land, and defensible terrain. Chiang Rai functioned as both a political centre and a symbolic statement of Lanna’s emergence as a regional power.

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3. The Founding Of Chiang Mai

In 1296, Mengrai founded Chiang Mai, which later replaced Chiang Rai as the capital of Lanna.

Chiang Mai was deliberately planned. Its position in the Ping River valley offered better agricultural potential, improved trade links, and long-term stability. The city was laid out with walls, moats, temples, and administrative centres, reflecting Mengrai’s vision of an enduring kingdom rather than a temporary stronghold.

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4. Rule Through Alliance, Not Just Force

Mengrai is notable for ruling through cooperation as much as warfare.

He formed alliances with other powerful rulers of the time, most famously King Ramkhamhaeng of Sukhothai and King Ngam Muang of Phayao. This alliance is commemorated today at the Three Kings Monument in Chiang Mai.

This approach allowed Lanna to expand without constant conflict and to stabilise its borders through diplomacy.

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5. Culture, Law, And Religion

Under Mengrai, Lanna developed its own legal systems, irrigation networks, and city administration.

Theravada Buddhism became the spiritual foundation of the kingdom, shaping temple architecture, education, and social life. Much of what people today recognise as “northern Thai culture” originates in this period.

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6. Lanna And Siam – What Is The Difference

It is important to distinguish Lanna from Siam, as they were not originally the same political or cultural entity.

Lanna was a northern Tai kingdom centred on Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai. It had its own language traditions, script, architecture, religious styles, and political identity. Lanna looked north and west, interacting with Myanmar, Yunnan, and other Tai states.

Siam refers to the central Thai kingdoms based around Sukhothai and later Ayutthaya, and eventually Bangkok. Siam developed a different court culture, political system, and external orientation, particularly toward the Chao Phraya river basin and maritime trade.

Lanna remained independent for centuries, was later contested by Burmese rule, and was only gradually integrated into Siam in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as the modern Thai state was formed.

In short:

• Lanna was northern, regional, and culturally distinct
• Siam was central, expansionist, and became the core of modern Thailand

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7. Why King Mengrai Still Matters

Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai both owe their existence to King Mengrai.

Lanna identity, still felt strongly in northern Thailand today, traces directly back to his reign. The persistence of local language, food, festivals, and architecture reflects a historical memory that predates Siamese centralisation.

King Mengrai is remembered not simply as a founder of cities, but as the architect of a northern civilisation whose legacy continues to shape the region.

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8. What Is Lanna Identity

Lanna identity refers to the distinct historical, cultural, and social traditions of northern Thailand that developed long before the region was incorporated into the modern Thai state.

At its core, Lanna identity is shaped by its origins as an independent kingdom centred on Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai. This produced its own language traditions, religious practices, architectural styles, and systems of governance that differ noticeably from those of central Thailand.

Culturally, Lanna is associated with softer forms of Theravada Buddhism, wooden temple architecture, local scripts, and community-based social organisation. Linguistically, northern Thai speech retains vocabulary and tonal patterns that set it apart from standard Thai.

Politically, Lanna’s gradual incorporation into Siam in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries did not erase local identity. Instead, Lanna culture survived as a regional consciousness, expressed through food, festivals, rituals, and a strong sense of historical continuity.

Today, Lanna identity is less about separatism and more about cultural memory. It represents a confident but unassuming persistence of regional heritage within a unified Thai nation, reminding visitors and residents alike that northern Thailand has its own deep and distinct past, present and future. Unity through diversity.

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Another Footnote - The Importance of Pose

Pose is about asserting or affirming identity and in the portraits you can see here, the pose tells us about ownership and authority and we know very well who's in charge. These are not the portraits of a timid or heavenly person, but portraits that project an earthly courage we'd better respect!

Compare with portraits of the king of England, King Charles, and of his mother the former Queen, and we can notice notice the similarity in the poses of powerful men and supportive women. 

Lastly...

Khenghis Khan pose

Other universal poses - couples, family ... epoch, civilisation don't make much difference

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WE CAN HEAR THE DRUMS, FEEL THE BEAT

21 December 2025

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1. Hearing The Drums

We can hear the drums, but we have not yet found the language to admit what we sense: that WW3 has started.

2. How Modern Wars Are Fought

We know that wars these days are fought through small, continuous, irreversible, escalatory steps, as the gloves slowly come off. It is only at the end that you get negotiation, and even then it is about the logistics of withdrawal rather than initial circumstances and intentions, or strategic “root causes”. I guess Europe is hoping that this will be the same with Russia in Ukraine, but it is very confusing to understand why they should think that, as the Europeans have no will to fight, no money, no military... no means; their only hope is American support but America is withdrawing, America cannot help as it is over extended and under focused and anyway has lost much manufacturing to globalisation.

3. The Elite Bet

Europe’s elite is betting on a Russian defeat, economic collapse or withdrawal. They have to, because the costs of their own defeat and withdrawal are greater than the costs of staying, as it is only the Russian threat that is keeping them together. The propaganda therefore needs to be maintained, so that the peoples of Europe see Putin as the cause of their increasing miserisation.

4. Censorship As A Sign Of Fear

We know that our leaders are genuinely worried, from when they cancel people like Jacques Baud, or try to steal the sovereign assets of another country and finally fail even when the money is in their hands, or are busy preparing a 20th package of sanctions that risk backfiring on us again while strengthening Russia. From our vantage point, our leaders' perception of danger seems an overreaction, incomprehensible even, because we cannot see any real threat emanating from Russia. Indeed, it is almost laughable, what are they so afraid of? Russia has spent four years in the Donbas. It seems so pathetic and yet so serious. We blink and ask again, "Why?". In effect, this lack of proportion creates more confusion in the public mind.

5. Legitimate Fears And Illogical Fears

Having said that, we can understand, though not necessarily agree with, the fears of small border states such as Finland, the Baltic countries, and others - the historic record is scary. But the fears of France, Germany, and Britain? That seems completely out of place. This is the confusing thing: why would these big, rich countries want to confront Russia at all? Where is the need coming from? How could Russia take them over anyway? Why would Russia even want to do this when it is largely self-sufficient and occupies a sixth of the surface of our planet as it is?

6. Geography And History

We know that geography is the fixed element of geopolitics, so we look to history to understand the politics of what is happening today. What was the Crimean War really about? Why did Britain and France support a declining Ottoman Empire? Perhaps what we are seeing today is a continuation of old rivalries, but surely the elite can see that the context is now very different. Reality is, it is a multi-polar world. When power is shared, it means negotiation. You cannot simply dictate terms and send in the carrier fleet. Multi-polar has also meant the pivot of history has shifted to the Pacific rim of China.

7. Realpolitik And Mistrust

Is this realpolitik? Politics driven by economics, finance, wealth and money, power and interest, rather than the proclaimed ethics and values we hear about in the press? If so, that is yet another source of confusion and mistrust in the public mind.

8. Spectators In A Growing Tempest

We are spectators in all this, but when we look to the elite we wonder whether they themselves are in control at all, or whether they are merely victims of history and the machinations of their own self interests. Why are they disrespecting their own values and denigrating their own institutions and internationally-agreed rules? So who really is in control? Does our elite in Europe have any agency over events? This is a legitimate question and a deep source of confusion, because it feels as though no one is in charge anymore and we are all being swept along in a mindless, growing tempest towards war. We sense that this is leading somewhere serious, but we do not know why or where. What we do know, from the language and the tempo, is that war is becoming normalised, maybe it's already started. And that is how confusion turns into anxiety.

AI assisted infographic

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Coming up next, from understanding to explanation...

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THE NEW PIVOT OF HISTORY

20 December 2025

1. What People Mean By Russophobia

Russophobia means fear of Russia that is bigger than the evidence.

People often talk about Russia as if it is always trying to conquer Europe. When you look at history carefully, this fear does not fit the facts very well. Russia has certainly been powerful, but power is not the same thing as wanting to rule everyone else. This gap between fear and evidence is the starting point for understanding russophobia.

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2. What Britain Was Really Afraid Of

Enabling power means helping someone else become dangerous.

Britain was not mainly afraid that Russia would conquer Europe by itself. The real fear was that Russia might help another country do it. Russia had land, people, and resources. Countries like France and later Germany had organisation, technology, and strong armies, but lacked space and raw materials. The worry was that Russia could provide the weight that allowed a continental power to dominate Europe.

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3. Russia And The Centre Of The Map

Pivot of history means the place whose geopolitical position affects everything around it.

This is why Halford Mackinder placed Russia at the centre of his thinking. In his time, Russia sat at the middle of Europe and Asia. Whoever controlled or aligned with this space could change the balance between land power and sea power. Today the centre has moved east, but the idea still helps explain how power shifts.

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4. Russia’s Long Memory Of Invasions

Invasion memory means remembering repeated attacks over centuries.

Russia’s history is full of invasions. Mongols came from the east. Poles and Lithuanians came from the west. Sweden invaded twice. Napoleon Bonaparte invaded in 1812 while trying to dominate Europe. Germany invaded twice in the twentieth century. In many cases, it was easy to enter Russia, but extremely hard to stay. Each time, the human cost was huge, especially for Russians.

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5. What Russia Did After Winning

Intent means what a country chooses to do when it has power.

After defeating Napoleon, Russia did not try to rule France or Western Europe. Russian armies went home. There was no attempt to build a European empire. Russia seemed satisfied with safety and recognition, not domination. This behaviour matters because it shows limits to Russian ambition.

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6. Why Britain’s Fears Kept Growing

Capability fear means worrying about what another country might be planning to do to you.

Over time, Britain worried about many possibilities. Russia might support Germany. Russia might industrialise and become powerful on its own. Russia might spread communism. Russia might block the route to India. Russian railways might strengthen its position as a land power and weaken Britain’s sea power. These were fears about what Russia could become, not what it was actually doing.

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7. Expansion And Buffer Zones

Buffer state means land used to create distance from enemies.

Russia did expand into nearby regions such as Poland, the Baltics, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the ‘stans. These areas touched Russia directly. They created space between Russia and potential invaders. This is different from overseas empires built by Britain or France. The Soviet Union expanded its system, but it did not build a classic colonial empire aimed at Western Europe.

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8. Two Insecure Powers

Security dilemma means one side’s defence looks like attack to another.

Britain and Russia were both insecure. Britain feared losing control of the seas and trade. Russia feared being invaded again. When Britain treated Russia as an aggressor, Russia felt threatened and acted defensively. Each side’s actions made the other more nervous. This led to escalation rather than stability.

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9. The Modern Result

Unintended consequence means results no one planned.

Trying to isolate Russia has pushed it closer to China. Power has shifted eastwards. Europe has become weaker. The main rival of the United States has become stronger. The old centre of the world has moved from Europe towards Asia.

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10. What This Says About Mackinder

Geopolitical legacy means old ideas still shaping new decisions.

Mackinder explained Britain’s fears very well for his time. The problem is not that he was wrong, but that his ideas were treated as permanent rules. When old theories are applied without updating them, they can create the very dangers they were meant to prevent. The mistake is in carrying on with the same old thinking rather than updating and adapting to new experience and revised understanding.

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11. Final Thoughts

Escalation means conflicts grow once they begin. Escalation dominance is about one side that can go further leaving the other behind.

History shows that wars tend to grow until someone clearly loses. Empires that lose major wars never recover their old position. This is simply what the historical record shows.

Question for you: has WW3 already begun?

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12. Glossary Of Key Terms

Russophobia
Fear of Russia that is stronger than reason or evidence.

Pivot of History
A central place that others move around and whose position affects the distribution of global power.

Buffer State
Land used to create distance from enemies.

Defensive Expansion
Growing borders mainly to improve security.

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13. References

Mackinder, H. J., “The Geographical Pivot of History” (1904)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1775498

Lieven, D., Russia Against Napoleon
https://www.penguin.co.uk

Kaplan, R. D., The Revenge of Geography
https://www.foreignpolicy.com

Jiang Xueqin: Chain Reaction Toward World War III Has Begun

https://youtu.be/P5gG9xXBQZE?si=uZDDAmskGqlINXnM

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GOLD APPROACHES NEW HIGHS

18 December 2025

Gold Approaches Record as Traders Watch US Data and Venezuela

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1. FACTS

What has just happened

Gold has risen again and is trading close to record levels, near 4,350 dollars an ounce. This follows a modest pullback in the previous session that ended a five day winning streak.

The all time high stands just above 4,381 dollars an ounce, set in October. Gold is now up more than 60 percent this year and is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979.

Silver has climbed to a fresh peak above 66 dollars an ounce. Platinum has surged to its highest level since 2008.

Investors are focused on imminent US inflation data and upcoming public remarks by senior Federal Reserve officials. The Federal Reserve has delivered three consecutive rate cuts, which support assets that do not pay interest. Markets currently assign less than a 25 percent probability to another cut in January.

Gold has also been supported by geopolitical escalation in Venezuela. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers and is pressuring Nicolas Maduro amid a military build up and the threat of land strikes.

Platinum strength has been linked to a European Union proposal to ease emissions rules for new cars, extending the expected life of combustion engines. Platinum and palladium are used in catalytic converters.

Source: Bloomberg Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities

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2. FORCES

The pressures pushing prices higher

2.1 Inflation And Monetary Policy

Inflation data shapes expectations for future interest rates. Lower expected rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver.

Even before the data is released, the tone of Federal Reserve speakers can move markets.

2.2 Capital Rotation Away From Bonds And Fiat

Investors are continuing to reduce exposure to government debt and major currencies. Central bank buying of gold adds a steady source of demand that is less sensitive to daily market noise.

2.3 Geopolitical Risk Premium

Escalation around Venezuela raises the probability of energy disruption and wider regional instability. Such events increase demand for assets viewed as monetary insurance.

2.4 Growth And Equity Valuation Risk

A slowing global economy supports defensive positioning. Elevated equity valuations encourage portfolio diversification into non correlated assets.

2.5 European Auto Policy Shifts

Easing emissions rules would extend the use of combustion engines. That increases expected demand for platinum group metals used in exhaust treatment systems.

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3. FRICTIONS

What can slow or interrupt the trend

3.1 Overextension Risk

Gold has risen very rapidly this year. Fast moves increase the risk of consolidation as investors take profits.

3.2 Uncertainty About Further Rate Cuts

Despite recent easing, markets are not convinced that further cuts are imminent. This limits near term upside unless inflation data surprises.

3.3 Geopolitics Is Unstable By Nature

Military and sanctions risks can escalate or fade suddenly. Markets can overshoot on headlines, then correct.

3.4 Policy Dependence In Platinum

Auto regulation remains political. Policy can change again, making platinum more volatile than purely monetary metals.

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4. FUTURES

Plausible paths from here

4.1 Base Case

A period of consolidation is likely after such a strong year. A steadier upward trend can follow if rate expectations remain supportive and risk premiums persist.

Forecasts cited by market analysts cluster around 4,500 dollars an ounce in 2026.

4.2 Bull Case

If inflation remains persistent while growth slows, gold can benefit from both fear and easing expectations. BNP Paribas has suggested a credible pathway toward 5,000 dollars sometime next year if multiple supportive forces align.

4.3 Bear Case

A renewed rise in real yields or a stronger dollar would pressure precious metals. A strong equity rally combined with higher yields could reduce hedging demand.

4.4 Silver And Platinum

Silver behaves as a hybrid asset, part monetary metal and part industrial metal. It tends to outperform gold when liquidity improves and growth fears ease.

Platinum remains highly sensitive to regulatory signals and industrial demand expectations.

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5. CAUSE AND EFFECT LINKAGES

Why gold and silver prices move

Gold and silver prices are shaped by two broad categories of drivers. Protection related factors and performance related factors. The balance between them changes across cycles.

5.1 Protection Related Factors

These relate to capital preservation.

• Inflation risk eroding the real value of cash and bonds
• Currency debasement fears driven by deficits and monetary expansion
• Geopolitical conflict and sanctions risk
• Sovereign debt sustainability concerns
• Declining trust in institutional competence

Gold is the clearest expression of protection demand.

5.2 Performance Related Factors

These relate to opportunity cost and relative returns.

• Real interest rates and expectations of rate cuts
• Strength or weakness of the US dollar
• Relative performance versus equities and bonds
• Momentum and positioning flows
• Industrial demand, which matters more for silver

Silver often outperforms gold when growth expectations stabilise.

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6. OTHER NEWS FACTORS THAT MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED

Context beyond the last one or two days

Several slower moving but news relevant factors continue to shape precious metal prices.

• Ongoing central bank gold purchases by emerging market states
• Continued efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar in trade settlement
• Weak demand for long dated sovereign bonds
• Rising fiscal stress in advanced economies
• Strong inflows into physically backed precious metal ETFs
• Supply constraints in silver mining due to declining grades and underinvestment

These factors form the background conditions that make short term news repeatedly reinforce the same direction.

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7. GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS

Precious metals
Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are metallic chemical elements valued for their resistance to corrosion, electrical behaviour, catalytic properties, and their long role in monetary history.

Periodic table of elements
The periodic table arranges elements by atomic number and electron configuration. Precious metals appear where they do because of their atomic structure. Scarcity is an economic concept linked to supply and demand, not a principle of chemical classification.

Bullion
Physical precious metal held as bars or coins.

Monetary easing
Central bank action that lowers interest rates or increases liquidity.

Safe haven
An asset perceived to retain value during periods of stress.

Real yields
Interest rates adjusted for inflation expectations.

Parabolic surge
A very rapid price rise that often leads to consolidation.

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If you want next, I can:

• Cut this to a shorter opinionated blog version
• Add charts and captions to match your visual style
• Link this explicitly to your empire currency thesis

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CHIANG MAI WILDLIFE

Chiang Mai And Native Wildlife - What Is Real, What Is Ethical

17 December 2025

Chiang Mai offers some of Thailand’s most authentic wildlife experiences, provided expectations are realistic and choices are ethical. This is not safari territory. Wildlife encounters centre on rescued elephants, forest ecosystems, and birdlife rather than large predators. The experience rewards patience, ethics, and an interest in landscape rather than spectacle.

Doi Suthep Pui National Park

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1. Overview

Chiang Mai is one of the better places in Thailand to see native wildlife, provided expectations are realistic and choices are made carefully. It is not a safari destination, but it does offer genuine forest biodiversity and some of Southeast Asia’s strongest ethical animal encounters.

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2. Wild Animals In Natural Settings

National parks and forest areas around Chiang Mai host genuinely wild animals, although sightings are never guaranteed.

What visitors may see includes macaques and leaf monkeys, barking deer, civets, porcupines, monitor lizards, snakes, and an exceptional diversity of birds, butterflies, and insects.

Best places include Doi Inthanon National Park, Doi Suthep-Pui National Park, and forest areas around Mae Taeng.

Reality check. Thailand is not a big-mammal safari destination. Elephants and tigers are extremely rare in the wild near Chiang Mai. Birdlife is the real highlight.

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3. Ethical Elephant Encounters

Ethical elephant sanctuaries are Chiang Mai’s strongest wildlife experience if chosen responsibly.

Ethical means no riding, no chains, no performances, and elephants allowed to roam, feed, and bathe naturally.

Well-regarded sanctuaries include Elephant Nature Park and Kindred Spirit Elephant Sanctuary. Some programmes at Elephant Jungle Sanctuary may be ethical, but it depends on the specific programme so it should be checked carefully.

Why this matters. Elephants are native to Thailand, and most resident animals were previously abused in logging or tourism. This is conservation-through-care, not entertainment.

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4. Rescue And Conservation Centres

There are also controlled environments focused on education rather than wilderness experience.

Examples include Chiang Mai Zoo (mixed reputation), insect museums and butterfly farms, and reptile rescue centres.

These are good for short visits, educational context, and families. The limitation is that animals are not living natural lives, so these places are best treated as supplements rather than highlights.

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5. Experiences To Avoid

Avoid tiger temples, selfie zoos, drugged animal photo opportunities, crocodile or snake shows, and any venue advertising guaranteed tiger interaction.

If an animal is calm enough for close selfies, it is almost always sedated, restrained, or abused.

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6. Best Overall Wildlife Experience

If choosing only two experiences, the best combination is an ethical elephant sanctuary (half or full day) plus a national park hike with a local guide.

This combination gives real animals, ethical interaction, and strong landscape, nature, and cultural context.

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7. Bottom Line

Chiang Mai offers authentic animal experiences, but not spectacle. The rewards go to visitors who accept fewer animals, more patience, and better ethics.

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References

References and further reading (science, conservation, photos):

• Ethical elephant conservation

Elephant Nature Park (rescue and rehabilitation model):

https://www.elephantnaturepark.org

Research on captive elephant welfare in Thailand:

https://www.worldanimalprotection.org/latest/news/elephants-tourism-thailand

• Doi Inthanon National Park – biodiversity

Official park information:

https://www.dnp.go.th/parkdetail.aspx?id=24

Bird diversity research (Inthanon as a hotspot):

https://www.birdlife.org/projects/doi-inthanon

Photo reference (habitats, waterfalls, wildlife):

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Doi_Inthanon_National_Park

• Doi Suthep–Pui National Park

Official overview:

https://www.dnp.go.th/parkdetail.aspx?id=21

Flora and fauna background:

https://www.thainationalparks.com/doi-suthep-pui-national-park

Photo reference:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Doi_Suthep-Pui_National_Park

• Thai wildlife reality check

Overview of Thailand’s mammal populations and habitat loss:

https://www.iucn.org/regions/asia/countries/thailand

Birdlife and insects as primary visible wildlife:

https://www.audubon.org/news/why-thailand-is-paradise-birders

This should give you both the scientific grounding and visual material to explore further before planning.

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WHY ARE OUR LEADERS SEEM SO IDIOTIC

17 December 2025

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1. POWER IS ABOUT PRESERVING THE SYSTEM

Yes. Power is about keeping the system alive — the system, the process — never mind the disastrous outcomes it can produce.

Disastrous, because we repeatedly choose incompetents to lead us. We choose comfort, what is familiar, rather than those with technical merit — the experts.

This is something independent thinkers find hard to understand.

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2. WHY DO WE CHOOSE THE WRONG LEADERS

Why do we choose idiots over rational, thinking people to lead us?

The answer lies in what Aristotle called the body politic. He used the body as a metaphor for society. Every part has a function: the brain thinks; the arms and legs act; the organs sustain life.

But most important of all is the heart. The heart sustains the rhythm of the whole. It keeps everything together. That, Aristotle argued, is the role of the politician.

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3. COMFORT, FEAR AND IDENTITY

Most people feel afraid if change comes too fast, if understanding is too radical, or if vision stretches too far ahead.

They want someone who reflects their values, their feelings, their identity back to them. This is how leaders build trust and loyalty.

Leaders themselves are driven by power, wealth, control, and the desire to please — and to manipulate emotion through propaganda.

There is little room at the top for brilliance. It is too frightening. People prefer familiarity, comfort, and leaders with big hearts.

Even highly intelligent leaders must dumb down their messages into the comfort zone of their followers to retain trust and influence.

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4. WHERE THE BRILLIANT MINDS GO

The bigger brains go elsewhere.

Into research and technology, building the things we will need.
Into the arts — the authentic ones — helping us make sense of experience and pushing beyond it.

But these people threaten power. Artists present radical, uncomfortable visions. Innovators move too fast. Thinkers challenge the rules we live by.

You are not going to follow them.

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5. PROPAGANDA AND THE HERD

Safety before truth. Appearance over substance. Feeling before reasoning.

Propaganda is a special form of Aristotle’s rhetoric:

Ethos — the speaker’s credibility and authority.
Pathos — appealing to emotion: fear, anger, belonging.
Logos — logic and data, often selectively applied.

If we are tribal or herd animals, belonging becomes the first rule of survival. Anyone threatening unity with unfamiliar ideas is cast out.

The group votes for safety and stability at the expense of excellence or long-term survival. That, Aristotle argued, is democracy.

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6. IDIOTS AS EMOTIONAL MANAGERS

But perhaps today’s idiots in power are not accidents.

Perhaps they are there precisely because they churn up emotion on behalf of their masters. They create the emotional landscape — values, fears, desires — into which approved messages are poured.

Calling this fake news or misinformation understates what is happening. This is propaganda.

We do not need this kind of leader. We need someone capable of radical rhetoric — capable of persuading us to accept transformative solutions to long-term decline.

The West is in decline. History is repeating itself — Rome, Spain, Holland, Britain. Instead we get emollient solutions that satisfy donors, distract the crowd, and soothe emotions while leading us towards collapse.

These leaders dampen reality, dampen anger, distract attention, and manufacture unity.

That is their function.

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7. TRUMP AND THE QUESTION OF A SCRIPT

In Trump’s case, the challenge is real.

He is expected to sell a long-term vision — largely shaped by Steve Miran and Scott Bessent — both to the public and to entrenched neocon elites.

He must inspire and transform. So far, that remains uncertain.

Is Trump an actor on the stage?
Is he part of the Entertainment Division?

And if so — who is writing the script?

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N. EIGHT MORE FRUITS UNKNOWN OUTSIDE THAILAND

16 December 2025

Fruits of SE Asia pt II

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A Market Basket of Tropical Fruit – A Field Report

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1. Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana)

Definition: Mangosteen is a tropical fruit prized for its sweet, floral white segments beneath a thick purple rind.

Often called the Queen of Fruits, mangosteen is highly valued across Southeast Asia for its balance of sweetness and acidity. The rind is thick and inedible, but inside are delicate white segments with a clean, almost sherbet-like flavour.

Mangosteen is seasonal and sensitive to handling, which is why it is rarely exported at peak quality. When fresh, it is one of the most refined fruits in the tropics.

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2. Custard Apple / Sugar Apple (Annona squamosa)

Definition: A soft, segmented fruit with creamy flesh and a mild vanilla sweetness.

The green, knobbly skin conceals a custard-like interior filled with black seeds. Texture matters more than flavour here – soft, rich, and spoonable when ripe.

It spoils quickly and is best eaten locally, which explains why it remains a regional fruit rather than an international export.

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3. Snake Fruit / Salak (Salacca zalacca)

Definition: A scaly-skinned fruit with crisp flesh and a sweet-sour profile.

Named for its reptile-like skin, salak has a firm bite and a complex flavour combining apple, pineapple, and citrus notes. It divides naturally into lobes, each with a central pit.

Its durability makes it a popular snack fruit and one of the easier tropical fruits to transport.

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4. Santol (Sandoricum koetjape)

Definition: A thick-skinned fruit with cottony flesh surrounding large seeds.

Santol is common in mainland Southeast Asia and is often eaten with salt, sugar, or chilli. The flesh clings tightly to the seeds and is more about texture than sweetness.

It is also used cooked, particularly in curries, where its mild sourness adds balance.

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5. Sapodilla (Manilkara zapota)

Definition: A brown, potato-like fruit with caramel and malt flavours.

Sapodilla has a grainy texture and a flavour reminiscent of brown sugar or toffee. When ripe, it is soft and sweet, though slightly drying on the palate.

Historically, the tree’s latex was used to make chewing gum, which helps explain the flavour association.

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6. Rose Apple / Chomphu (Syzygium samarangense)

Definition: A crisp, watery fruit with a mild floral aroma.

These bell-shaped fruits are refreshing rather than sweet. Their texture is closer to a light apple or pear, making them ideal for hot climates.

They are often eaten chilled or with chilli salt, prioritising hydration over intensity.

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7. Lime (Citrus aurantiifolia)

Definition: A small, sharp citrus fruit essential to Southeast Asian cooking.

Lime is used more as an ingredient than a snack fruit, providing acidity rather than sweetness. It appears constantly in salads, soups, sauces, and drinks.

Its presence in the basket signals cooking intent rather than casual eating.

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8. Jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus) – Prepared

Definition: The world’s largest tree-grown fruit, sold here pre-cut for convenience.

Jackfruit is difficult to prepare whole due to its size, sticky latex, and strong aroma. The bright yellow pods have a distinctive flavour somewhere between mango and banana.

When ripe it is sweet; when unripe it is commonly used as a meat substitute in savoury dishes.

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9. Rose Apple – Wrapped (Market Grade)

Definition: Rose apples protected with foam netting to prevent bruising.

The netting indicates fragility and higher market value. These fruits are selected for appearance and texture rather than strong flavour.

Packaging reflects how presentation plays an increasing role in modern Asian fruit markets.

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Closing Observation

This basket reflects tropical abundance, seasonality, and local eating habits rather than export logic. Many of these fruits prioritise freshness and texture over transportability, which explains why they remain unfamiliar outside the region.

Together, they illustrate how Southeast Asian fruit culture values variety, immediacy, and climate-appropriate refreshment rather than uniform sweetness.

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WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT PROPAGANDA

12 December 2025

How your attitudes are shaped, without your realising it.

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PROPAGANDA: HOW MODERN SOCIETIES ARE SHAPED WITHOUT REALISING IT

Taken together, the ten articles summarised here explore propaganda not as crude lies imposed from above, but as a subtle, pervasive system that shapes attitudes, narrows "permissible" thought, and conditions populations to accept their elite by taking down their resistance. Drawing on thinkers such as Jacques Ellul and observing contemporary media, war reporting, and political discourse, the series shows how propaganda works through repetition, emotional framing, moral binaries, and the implicit - systemic really - the implicit, system-driven alignment of governments, journalists, analysts, think tanks and cultural institutions. This doesn't require "managing" or intervention or coordination, only shared assumptions. 

It is most effective precisely because it feels normal, humanitarian, and rational - because it presents itself as common sense rather than persuasion. Propaganda in modern societies is self-organising. Whether examining war narratives, journalism’s loss of scepticism, the theatricalisation of politics, or the psychological exhaustion of Western societies, the core argument remains the same: modern propaganda does not demand belief, it demands acquiescence. It replaces debate with reflex, doubt with certainty, and citizenship with spectatorship. 

The danger is not merely that we are misinformed, but that we gradually lose the capacity - and even the desire - to think independently.

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1. JACQUES ELLUL – THE FORMATION OF ATTITUDES

This post draws on Jacques Ellul’s insight that modern propaganda does not primarily aim to persuade us with arguments, but to shape our attitudes over time. Ellul explains how constant exposure to simplified narratives, repetition, and emotional framing gradually conditions individuals to accept certain positions as “normal” or “obvious", long before any explicit opinion is formed. The article argues that modern citizens mistake information overload for freedom of thought, when in reality it produces conformity and passivity.

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2. PROPAGANDA, THE WAY IT WORKS, THE HARM IT DOES

This article explains propaganda as a psychological system rather than a set of lies. It shows how slogans, moral binaries, and emotional triggers short-circuit rational thought, encouraging people to react rather than reflect - this is very important to understand, and a proper understanding of propaganda requires knowing the methods and tools employed and just how calculating the campaign is and how coordination is achieved at the system level. The harm lies not only in false beliefs, but in the erosion of independent judgement, social trust, and nuance. Over time, propaganda damages democratic culture by replacing reasoning with reflex and a kind of conditioned instinct.

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3. PROPAGANDA FIT FOR THE EDINBURGH FRINGE

Using satire and irony, this post compares modern war propaganda to a theatrical performance - exaggerated, repetitive, Punch and Judy almost, and designed for applause rather than truth. It argues that many media narratives are so absurdly scripted that they resemble fringe comedy, except with deadly consequences. The piece highlights how certainty, moral grandstanding, and simplification replace serious analysis, turning war into entertainment for distant audiences. "Politics is the entertainment division of the MIC."

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4. JOURNALISM AS PROPAGANDA

This article argues that journalism has increasingly abandoned its role as a sceptical check on power and become a transmission belt for elite narratives. Rather than investigating, challenging, contextualising, much of the media now amplifies official positions while marginalising dissent. The post shows how framing, omission, and selective outrage can be as powerful as outright censorship in shaping public perception.

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5. THE EFFECT OF TROLLS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

This post examines the real and exaggerated role of online trolls in the Ukraine conflict. It argues that while information warfare exists, blaming “trolls” often serves as a convenient excuse to dismiss legitimate scepticism and policy failure. The deeper problem, the article suggests, is not manipulation by outsiders but the fragility of public trust and the unwillingness of elites to tolerate dissent.

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6. WESTERN GOVTS, ANALYSTS AND MEDIA – HOW PROPAGANDA WORKS

Here, the focus is on the alignment between governments, think tanks, analysts, and media organisations. The article explains how a narrow consensus forms, how soft power works -  career incentives, access journalism, reputational risk. Once established, this consensus polices itself, marginalising alternative views without needing explicit coordination. Propaganda emerges as a systemic outcome, not a conspiracy. Question outside the box and a journalist loses influence and access and gets relegated to podcasts, substack, the bloggosphere.

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7. PROPAGANDA PODCAST

This post introduces and frames this podcast series, which is dedicated to unpacking and "de-fanging" propaganda in modern politics and war. It emphasises slow thinking, historical context, and scepticism as antidotes to emotional manipulation and the tools of the propagandaist's trade. The aim is not to replace one narrative with another, but to help listeners recognise techniques of persuasion and reclaim a minimum of intellectual autonomy.

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8. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR

This article challenges the claim that the Ukraine war is a moral crusade binding all Europeans. It argues that public consent has been manufactured through fear, moral pressure, and selective information. The post questions whose interests are truly served and warns that democratic legitimacy erodes when populations are told a war is inevitable, righteous, and beyond debate.

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9. IS AMERICA’S MADNESS REVERSIBLE?

This piece reflects on the United States’ political and psychological trajectory, describing a society locked in permanent crisis mode. It argues that constant outrage, polarisation, and moral absolutism are symptoms of deeper institutional and cultural breakdown. The article asks whether restraint, pluralism, and self-doubt — once American strengths — can be recovered, or whether the system now feeds on permanent instability.

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10. THE WEST HAS BEEN DEFEATED IN UKRAINE, BUT IS IN DENIAL OF THE…

This post argues that the West has already lost strategically in Ukraine, but cannot admit it without confronting deeper failures of leadership, planning, and honesty. Rather than reassessing, elites double down on narrative control to delay political consequences. The article frames denial as a final stage of propaganda - not to mobilise victory, but to postpone accountability.

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1. JACQUES ELLUL – THE FORMATION OF ATTITUDES

https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/09/jacques-ellul-the-formation-of-attitudes.html

2. PROPAGANDA: THE WAY IT WORKS, THE HARM IT DOES

https://www.livingintheair.org/2022/06/propaganda-the-way-it-works-the-harm-it-does-us.html

3. PROPAGANDA FIT FOR THE EDINBURGH FRINGE

https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/09/propaganda-fit-for-the-edinburgh-fringe.html

4. JOURNALISM AS PROPAGANDA

https://www.livingintheair.org/2022/07/journalism-as-propaganda.html

5. THE EFFECT OF TROLLS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

https://www.livingintheair.org/2023/07/the-effect-of-trolls-on-the-outcome-of-the-war-in-ukraine.html

6. WESTERN GOVTS, ANALYSTS AND MEDIA – HOW PROPAGANDA WORKS

https://www.livingintheair.org/2022/08/western-govts-analysts-and-media-how-propaganda-works.html

7. PROPAGANDA PODCAST

https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/12/propaganda-podcast.html

8. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR

https://www.livingintheair.org/2025/05/this-is-not-our-war.html

9. IS AMERICA’S MADNESS REVERSIBLE?

https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/01/is-americas-madness-reversible.html

10. THE WEST HAS BEEN DEFEATED IN UKRAINE, BUT IS IN DENIAL OF THE…

https://www.livingintheair.org/2025/03/the-west-has-been-defeated-in-ukraine-but-is-in-denial.html

IN SUMMARY...

Propaganda today isn’t about telling crude lies. It works by shaping attitudes through repetition, emotion, and “common sense” narratives, aligning media, experts, and elite. 

Its real effect isn’t to make us believe everything, but to narrow what can be questioned... in effect, propaganda replaces real debate with an instinctive purely emotional reflex and turns us into spectators.... it's not enough to think that we are above such manipulation, we aren't, we need to be aware, all we have in self-defense is knowledge of the methods and techniques used and the end purposes and outcomes sought by the manipulators.

Take care!

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GOLD AS A SAFE STORE OUTSIDE A FAILING SYSTEM

8 December 2025

People buy gold when they don't understand or feel safe with banks or the financial system, especially when they sense that they sense that paper promises may not be honoured.

But not all forms of gold offer the same protection. Some survive crisis. Others depend on the system that you are hedging against.

Get your wealth out of the system before it's too late

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1. INTRODUCTION

Gold is the oldest form of financial protection. But not all forms of gold are equally safe. Some survive crisis. Others collapse with the system that issues them.

Here is a clear ranking of the ten main ways to hold gold, from safest to most speculative, based on counterparty risk, liquidity and systemic vulnerability.

Is gold safe? Governments could introduce:

• sales taxes

• capital-gains taxes

• windfall taxes

• transaction reporting

• VAT changes.

• punitive taxes

• reporting requirements

• banning cash purchases

• forced sales only through regulated dealers

• exchange controls

Examples:

• USA 1933 – Executive Order 6102 forced citizens to sell gold to the government.

• Australia 1959 – Gold seizure powers existed but were never used.

• UK 1966 – Restrictions on private ownership of gold coins (lifted later).

Even with taxes or restrictions, gold protects you from:

• inflation

• currency devaluation

• banking failures

• capital controls

• bail-ins

• negative interest rates

• political financial repression

If the government takes 5–10% in tax when you sell, that is still far better than losing 50–90% of purchasing power through currency decline.

Anyway here is the list of securities in risk order:

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2. PHYSICAL GOLD IN YOUR POSSESSION

This is the safest form of ownership. No counterparty risk. No broker, no bank, no custodian. It cannot be frozen or seized by a failing financial system.

Physical gold is the foundation of crisis protection.

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3. ALLOCATED GOLD IN A TRUSTED NON BANK VAULT

Allocated storage means specific bars held in your name. They are segregated and legally yours. Jurisdictions such as Switzerland and Singapore are preferred.

Almost as safe as holding it yourself, with the benefit of institutional-grade security.

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4. UNALLOCATED GOLD ACCOUNTS

Unallocated accounts give you a claim on gold, but not specific bars. In normal markets this is convenient. In stressed markets it becomes risky.

If the issuer fails, you join the queue as a creditor.

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5. GOLD ETFS SUCH AS GLD IAU OR PHYS

ETFs track the gold price effectively and are very liquid. They function well when markets are calm.

But they remain inside the financial system. They depend on exchanges, custodians and regulators. They offer price exposure, not systemic protection.

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6. SENIOR GOLD MINERS

Large mining companies typically rise faster than the gold price because their margins widen.

They are still businesses with political, operational and regulatory risks. They perform well in stable markets and poorly in systemic crises.

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7. GOLD MINER ETFS SUCH AS GDX

These vehicles diversify across many miners. Upside is strong in a bull market.

However they depend entirely on equity market liquidity. In a crisis they can fall sharply despite a rising gold price.

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8. JUNIOR GOLD MINERS

Juniors offer large speculative upside in good times. They are highly leveraged to sentiment and financing conditions.

In a liquidity freeze they often collapse. They are not a hedge against systemic risk.

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9. JUNIOR MINER ETFS SUCH AS GDXJ

These ETFs spread junior-level risk but retain junior-level volatility. They are the first to be hit in any market shock.

Best suited only for speculation, not protection.

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10. FUTURES OPTIONS AND LEVERAGED GOLD PRODUCTS

These include futures, options, CFDs and leveraged ETFs. They are trading tools, not stores of value.

Margin calls, forced liquidations and exchange disruptions make them extremely unsafe in a crisis.

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11. GOLD HELD THROUGH WEAK BANKS OR RISKY BROKERS

This is the least safe method. Subject to bail ins, freezes and counterparty failure. It provides the appearance of safety but no real security.

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12. CONCLUSION

Gold protects against the failure of paper promises. But the protection depends entirely on how you hold it. Physical possession is the anchor. Allocated vault storage follows closely. Everything else depends on the stability of a financial system that may not endure.

In an age of rising debt, monetary instability and geopolitical fracture, choosing the right form of gold matters more than ever.

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